Quote from TucsonClip on July 31, 2025, 10:09 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2025, 9:42 pm

Now that the deadline has passed and we know all of the moves that were made I'm ready to share some thoughts. I'll start by saying the same thing I've been saying the last few seasons which is that with how much money we have invested long term, especially in older and aging players like Darvish, Machado, Bogaerts and Cronenworth I'm not surprised to see AJ continue to push aggressively while the team is in contention. This team is in win now mode. There's no telling how many more productive years those guys are going to have. They have to keep going for it while they're producing.

Looking at the Miller trade, to me the fact that AJ was willing to trade De Vries means that he's confident that Miller will be able to transition to the rotation in 2026 and beyond. As good as he is as a reliever I don't think they make that trade planning on leaving him in the bullpen. Looking at him as a potential front line starter changes the calculus to me.

Fermin is a really solid defensive catcher and even his modest offensive production should be a big upgrade over what we've gotten most of the year. Bergert and Kolek have been good for us. I look at them more as backend/depth starters though. Sears should effectively replace one of them too.

Laureano and O'Hearn should help the lineup and bench a lot. Laureano is having a great year and looks like the new everyday guy in LF. O'Hearn could take over at 1B against right handed pitching and push Arraez to DH which should help the offense and the defense. With Sheets still in the mix we're going to have a big bar to bring off the bench every night too rather than having to use someone like Brooks.

Butterworth, Figueroa and Smith as later round college guys seem unlikely to amount to much even if they're having some success at the lower levels. Neighbors looks like he'll be in the big leagues before too long. Bateman and Hightower may ultimately be the ones who determine who "wins" this trade. They still have a long way to go.

Lockridge looks to have the ceiling of a 4th or 5th OF. The Brewers are covering all but the prorated portion of the minimum that Cortes is owed and we got a lottery ticket prospect. Probably not going to be a real impactful trade either way. If Cortes just gives us some useful innings the rest of the way I'll take it.

Wagner brings some versatility and seems like he can at least put together a solid AB against right handed pitching. He gives us some depth and could be a useful role player in the future. I don't think Valenzuela will hit enough to make it even as a #2 C.

With Miller, Sears, Fermin, Laureano and Wagner all controlled beyond this season our roster should be mostly set moving forward even with some big pieces set to hit free agency.

I would also say that while it can be jarring to see AJ trade so many prospects I try to remember that AJ's strength is as a scout. I can't be too upset when he uses that strength to support a win now team even if it hurts watching some of those guys become successful with other teams. If he gets us a ring it'll all be worth it. If he doesn't it's still been a pretty fun ride with this team the last handful of years.

Totally agree on all counts. Front line starting pitching moving forward was far and away the most pressing need, with Cease gone, King possibly as well, Musgrove coming back from TJ, Darvish age, Pivetta with 1 year left, and beyond that all back end of the rotation guys (we can find them nearly anywhere).

The big chip is Miller. If he is able to transition back to an impact SP and keep his elbow intact, that's more impactful than waiting on De Vries in 2-3 years, sorry... The window is now and Preller can reboot the farm over and over again.

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 2:53 am

The SP near term is going to be interesting as to how Shildt deploys all the arms ... considering the next few Thursdays are off days building in some "rest" for SP ... so, unlikely going with a 6 man rotation which would put SP more pitching every 7th day. However that does give the Padres the luxury of not trying to activate King too soon ... let him have a rehab ... maybe back near the end of August.

To begin: Pivetta, Cease, Darvish, then 2 of Vasquez, Sears (L), Cortes (L) ... then King returns. Padres win with Vasquez pitching and now with a longer bullpen likely to continue starting. Sears is a workhorse as a SP so should beat out Cortes initially since Cortes may not be fully stretched-out after missing most of the season with injury. Long relief for Cortes? King returns ??????

Musgrove returns for 2026 (although he wants to return for the playoffs as a RP) to replace Cease ... unlikely they re-sign Cortes .... so still have a starting 5 but no depth for injury. Waldron? Might not pick up Hart's $5MM option. O.Cruz looking more like a long RP. Prospect-wise ... will Mendez develop enough in the minors to be a legit call-up in 2026? With Pivetta a FA after 2026 ... that mix (and lack of near term prospects) may direct the Padres to make the big push to re-sign King as an upper rotation arm plus make a winter move for another ML ready arm just for SP depth unless they make a full commitment (initially) to Miller converting to SP.

At least in potential a 2026 SP rotation of King, Pivetta, Darvish, Musgrove, Miller would be dominant. Vasquez and Sears become depth (long RP?) or trade chips? Maybe don't re-sign King to deploy money on offense or re-sign King and trade Pivetta ($20MM and FA after 2026) who should yield a pretty good return while saving his money to redeploy. Preller should still have an interesting winter playing with the roster.

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on August 1, 2025, 5:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 2:53 am

The SP near term is going to be interesting as to how Shildt deploys all the arms ... considering the next few Thursdays are off days building in some "rest" for SP ... so, unlikely going with a 6 man rotation which would put SP more pitching every 7th day. However that does give the Padres the luxury of not trying to activate King too soon ... let him have a rehab ... maybe back near the end of August.

To begin: Pivetta, Cease, Darvish, then 2 of Vasquez, Sears (L), Cortes (L) ... then King returns. Padres win with Vasquez pitching and now with a longer bullpen likely to continue starting. Sears is a workhorse as a SP so should beat out Cortes initially since Cortes may not be fully stretched-out after missing most of the season with injury. Long relief for Cortes? King returns ??????

Musgrove returns for 2026 (although he wants to return for the playoffs as a RP) to replace Cease ... unlikely they re-sign Cortes .... so still have a starting 5 but no depth for injury. Waldron? Might not pick up Hart's $5MM option. O.Cruz looking more like a long RP. Prospect-wise ... will Mendez develop enough in the minors to be a legit call-up in 2026? With Pivetta a FA after 2026 ... that mix (and lack of near term prospects) may direct the Padres to make the big push to re-sign King as an upper rotation arm plus make a winter move for another ML ready arm just for SP depth unless they make a full commitment (initially) to Miller converting to SP.

At least in potential a 2026 SP rotation of King, Pivetta, Darvish, Musgrove, Miller would be dominant. Vasquez and Sears become depth (long RP?) or trade chips? Maybe don't re-sign King to deploy money on offense or re-sign King and trade Pivetta ($20MM and FA after 2026) who should yield a pretty good return while saving his money to redeploy. Preller should still have an interesting winter playing with the roster.

 

Does Sears have options left?

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 6:25 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on August 1, 2025, 5:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 2:53 am

The SP near term is going to be interesting as to how Shildt deploys all the arms ... considering the next few Thursdays are off days building in some "rest" for SP ... so, unlikely going with a 6 man rotation which would put SP more pitching every 7th day. However that does give the Padres the luxury of not trying to activate King too soon ... let him have a rehab ... maybe back near the end of August.

To begin: Pivetta, Cease, Darvish, then 2 of Vasquez, Sears (L), Cortes (L) ... then King returns. Padres win with Vasquez pitching and now with a longer bullpen likely to continue starting. Sears is a workhorse as a SP so should beat out Cortes initially since Cortes may not be fully stretched-out after missing most of the season with injury. Long relief for Cortes? King returns ??????

Musgrove returns for 2026 (although he wants to return for the playoffs as a RP) to replace Cease ... unlikely they re-sign Cortes .... so still have a starting 5 but no depth for injury. Waldron? Might not pick up Hart's $5MM option. O.Cruz looking more like a long RP. Prospect-wise ... will Mendez develop enough in the minors to be a legit call-up in 2026? With Pivetta a FA after 2026 ... that mix (and lack of near term prospects) may direct the Padres to make the big push to re-sign King as an upper rotation arm plus make a winter move for another ML ready arm just for SP depth unless they make a full commitment (initially) to Miller converting to SP.

At least in potential a 2026 SP rotation of King, Pivetta, Darvish, Musgrove, Miller would be dominant. Vasquez and Sears become depth (long RP?) or trade chips? Maybe don't re-sign King to deploy money on offense or re-sign King and trade Pivetta ($20MM and FA after 2026) who should yield a pretty good return while saving his money to redeploy. Preller should still have an interesting winter playing with the roster.

 

Does Sears have options left?

Yes.

That is a possibility but a bitter pill to swallow for Sears who has been a ML starter for 3 years and made every start. Cortes (when fully healthy) has been a better pitcher than Sears, so might boil down to how well the Padres scouted him in his rehab and his readiness to go deep as a starter.

Neither one has a history as a RP ... so using either in the pen is also a risk.

Is it time for someone on the staff to get an injury to their right oblique and go on the IL (Matsui?).

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 1, 2025, 6:38 am

Quote from WindsorUK on July 31, 2025, 1:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 31, 2025, 1:04 pm

If we can solve LF for this year and next.....and keep all three of the tall Lefthanders.....I'll be happy.

 

That was probably the kiss of death wasn't it?

 

Who are the 3 tall lefthanders?

Sorry…..Kash Mayfield,Boston Bateman and Kruz Schoolcraft

Bateman is gone, pretty sure Kruz couldn’t have been traded anyway, but

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 1, 2025, 6:43 am

I just hope the Cortes thing isn’t a bad sign about King returning

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 7:42 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 1, 2025, 6:43 am

I just hope the Cortes thing isn’t a bad sign about King returning

 

King's sim game and interview after all seemed to lead to a return in the not to distant future ... maybe another sim game and then a rehab (maybe two). However, never really know until he throws in intent in a real game.

For me Cortes is a greater risk having really not pitched (except his rehabs) this season ... elbow injury. Is he fully back and stretched out enough to be a reliable SP in a playoff run down the stretch?

Adding him (and the prospect) for Lockridge made a lot of sense for the upside and insurance ... even with the risk. Just might be a look and see situation.

Quote from fenn68 on August 1, 2025, 7:58 am

With the DFA of Maldando and Brooks offsetting some of the adds the 40 man is at 39 BUT that does not count King and Cortes who are still listed as on the 60 day IL. So initially room to take Cortes off without a 40 man move.

However, IF Miller, Sears, and Cortes all go to the 26 man ... 2 players will have to be optioned (or put on IL). Marinaccio looks to be the first out but then an interesting call considering few have minor league options (or are just to good). That becomes more of an issue with King come off the 60 day and added to the 26 man.

Still need to move a position player off the 26 man ... between Johnson and Wade and don't think either can be optioned. Padres may be waiting until they are sure Laureano and O'Hearn are here for tonight's game. Likely the same for the moves off the pitching staff.

Quote from ultratvfan on August 1, 2025, 8:58 am

C Martín Maldonado and OF Trenton Brooks are DFA'd

Lockridge was traded as part of the Cortes deal.