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Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2022, 11:29 am

Not sure if any of the prospect ranking folks really do a full blown re-ranking process mid-season. Clearly MLBPipeline doesn’t … just adds who was next on their list from pre-season to the bottom as others get traded or graduate. Others just “stick in” the old list new system adds.

I would expect a lot of significant ups and down movement when the post-season re-rankings occur.

Actually MLBPipeline does. In fact they just did.

Campusano 98, Merrill 88.

Just a side comment ... it has always been my bias that these rankings should be divided into two lists:

  1. Prospects that have been playing in full season ball
  2. Prospects that are in Rookie / DSL / just drafted

Maybe list of 15 each ... has to be almost impossible blend the performance shown in full season work and the raw potential seen in amateur play and come up with a "credible" list. At least with the list of full season prospects get a better view of near term help for the parent club.

Prospect Watch and Ranked lists. No player should be listed without playing full season ball. No long term injury player should be listed. Shoulders injuries for hitters, TJ and Shoulders for pitchers. Allowing you to demote the injured player without defaming them if they return to form.

https://www.mlb.com/news/san-diego-padres-top-30-prospects-list-2023-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Here’s a look at the Padres top prospects:
1. Jackson Merrill, SS (MLB No. 19)
2. Dylan Lesko, RHP (MLB No. 100)
3. Ethan Salas, C
4. Samuel Zavala, OF
5. Robby Snelling, LHP
Complete Top 30 list »

Biggest Jump: Nerwilian Cedeno, 2B/3B/1B (2022: NR | 2023: No. 12)

The Venezuelan infielder had played only 18 stateside games entering 2023, in part due to a meniscus tear in 2022. He got additional 2023 playing time with Lake Elsinore, hitting .256/.362/.400 in 71 games, and added a bit more during a spin through the Arizona Fall League. While the numbers don’t pop, Cedeno still looks the part of a switch-hitter with enough bat speed to provide a decent performance at the plate over the long term. He should get opportunities at multiple infield spots moving forward, but he’s most valuable if he can make second base his long-term home.

I *love* the lists 🙂

MadFriars Top 30 for 2024 – Conniff Edition

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099866-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2023-24-offseason

1. C Ethan Salas (Tier 1)
2. SS Jackson Merrill (Tier 1)
3. LHP Robby Snelling (Tier 1)
4. RHP Dylan Lesko (Tier 1)
5. OF Samuel Zavala (Tier 1)
6. RHP Drew Thorpe (Tier 2)
7. RHP Jairo Iriarte (Tier 2)
8. OF Jakob Marsee (Tier 2)
9. RHP Adam Mazur (Tier 3)
10. OF Dillon Head (Tier 3)
10. LHP Victor Lizarraga (Tier 3)

I also like lists as a quick reference source but really want more meat on the bone as to why a player is rated as he is.  For that reason prefer the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com and the multiple lists provided by MadFriars.  Recently, found a You Tube podcast "The Call Up" which rates each MLB team's top 15 prospects plus another 5 to watch.  They've gone through the NL West and are now doing the NL Central teams and each podcast last a little over an hour.  Not sure what makes these 2 guys experts but they are very entertaining and seem to have some solid rationale for their ratings.  Padres are rated by them as having the best top 6 prospects in their system in the NL West with Merrill rated #1.  Gives you another perspective from outside the organization.

Spoiler alert:  they are down on Sammy Zavala but high on Dillon Head.  Recalling the horrific start Zavala had at Lake Elsinore in 2023 and the equally horrific end of the season he had at Ft. Wayne, I can see why but in between those stretches, he was very good.  Also,  he had an oblique injury at Ft. Wayne which greatly diminished his production, so I've still got hope that Zavala can be closer to the top 5 than the bottom of the top 10 in most ratings.

FanGraphs Top 20 ... https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects

2023 Updated
Rk Name Pos Tm FV
1 Jackson Holliday SS BAL
60
2 James Wood CF WSN
60
3 Jackson Chourio CF MIL
60
4 Dylan Crews CF WSN
60
5 Jordan Lawlar SS ARI
60
6 Paul Skenes SP PIT
60
7 Jackson Merrill SS SDP
60
8 Adael Amador 2B COL
60
9 Andrew Painter SP PHI
60
10 Brooks Lee SS MIN
55
11 Junior Caminero 3B TBR
55
12 Colson Montgomery 3B CHW
55
13 Diego Cartaya C LAD
55
14 Ethan Salas C SDP
55
15 Wyatt Langford LF TEX
55
16 Marcelo Mayer SS BOS
55
17 Kyle Harrison SP SFG
55
18 Ricky Tiedemann SP TOR
55
19 Mick Abel SP PHI
55
20 Curtis Mead LF TBR
55

MadFriars Top 30 for 2024: Charity Edition

Saw a new 2024 Top 10 prospect list (Dynasty Dugout) ... the expected #1-4: Merrill; Salas; Snelling; and Lesko ... this was prior to the Soto trade.

What was interesting was Iriate was #6 and Pauley was #7. Also, Mazur was 8th and Marsee was 10th.

Given that Shildt did include Iriate as in the mix for a SP in 2024 ... coupled with upside reports from 2023 suggesting he may push the MLB Top 100 ... maybe I need to alter my thinking a bit. Clearly has "stuff" but just barely into AA and still has control issues. Also billed as a closer for the future. Based on nothing ... see the next Lamet right now. With the value of pitching ... if the Padres have a comfort level with the other pitching prospects could Iriate be an effective trade chip?

Pauley to me was the most interesting ... a big leap to #6 (ahead of the more hyped Marsee) ... with a lot of love for his hitting upside ... see  him as a potential LF option (was worked there in AZ Fall). Does that view match the Padres' view ... if so, Pauley and Marsee (both needed LHH) may be truly in the mix for 2024 resulting in a low key search for FA OF and if they do add a FA ... likely a 1 year deal.

 

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