Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2020, 7:46 am

Apparently Edward Olivares is really impressing in Camp...after impressing in the Spring also.

Looking to make the 30 man and maybe take playing time from Myers if he doesn't hit right out of the gate?

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2020, 8:23 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2020, 7:46 am

Apparently Edward Olivares is really impressing in Camp...after impressing in the Spring also.

Looking to make the 30 man and maybe take playing time from Myers if he doesn't hit right out of the gate?

 

Not likely Myers ... more likely one of Grisham (L), Cordero (L), Naylor (L) .... all LHH .... all can be optioned to the taxi squad ... none have a ML history of success.

Side: not sold on Grisham in CF from an offensive standpoint. His short ML run in 2019 did not play well away from Miller Park. Yes, a great rebound minor league campaign in 2019 (after some real poor seasons) ... but is that real and transferable to the ML. Cordero is not a good defensive CF and has shown little ability to hit LHP. Naylor in CF is not a good idea ... neither are Myers or Pham. Mateo has not shown any hitting projection to the ML and really don't know about his defensive side in CF.

We may see Olivares in CF vs. LHP if Grisham can't cut it and/or at DH vs. LHP if Naylor / Cordero can't cut it.

These Summer Camp inter-squad games are more critical to determine that cut to the taxi squad. In a short season, can't take too big a gamble on unknown potential based on small sample size from inter-squad games. Losing a couple of games due to a bad gamble may cost a playoff spot.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 8, 2020, 10:17 am

I think the "teams need to have 17 pitchers on a 30 man roster" is the 2nd most illogical storyline just behind "Gore & Patino need to be on the O.D. roster"....

I GET that it's a compressed schedule.  I GET that SP's may not be "fully stretched out" (not really true if they were working out as should have been with guidance from coaches).  and I GET that with a DH the need to make in-game PH "NL style" substitutions is lower.  But a lot of things are getting overlooked:   1)  Every P's arm is fresh & "only" has to get through 60 games; RP's would have already logged more games by now than they're likely to in the 60 game mini-season.  2)  3 batter rule is in effect; reducing # of P's being used per game (but admittedly those P's less likely to pitch the next day as with the old rules).   3) Man on 2nd in Extra innings dramatically decreases chance of uber long games.  4)  One game now = 2.7 "Normal" games INCREASES the importance of LH/RH hitting matchups AND defensive & PR Substitutions.

Adding Mateo hurt Olivares' chances as a 6th OF, but with Pham going to be behind, the door opens.  His RH, speed, arm, and defense all "fit" Padres needs/weaknesses (RH DH options & preferably RH OF defensive/CF sub).  Wouldn't surprise me at all if they carry 6 OF initally PLUS Mateo.  I would go with 6 SP, 9 RP, 3 C, & 1 other "extra" position player to fill my 30-man; can still "rotate" RP or even SP up/down as needed; the 6th SP is really a long RP.

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2020, 11:17 am

Did see Cassavell's comments ... if Lucchesi is a SP in 2020 ... that Padres may benefit by limiting his innings since he has a dramatic decline performance the 3rd time through the line-up giving value to the "extra" pitchers coming in before he fades.

Don't know if that may turn into a strategy for more of the pitchers getting yanked sooner to avoid that 3rd time through (may not be for Paddack or Lamet) ... but the others? Across baseball that 3 time through has been a stats analysis hot button.

Also, there is some discussion around some pitchers going all out early (not saving something for later) ... maybe being more effective in the early innings ... knowing the extra arms will come in mid-game.

So, may not be about the pitchers being physically able to go longer ... it may be about the manager utilizing his staff to a better result ... keeping in mind that every loss avoided is very important in a short season.

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2020, 11:37 am

Should note that I don't think there is a real need for a 30 man opening day roster.

Maybe the benefit is it gives more time for teams to figure out the last four players to option before setting the final 26 for September.

Maybe that is a benefit for Olivares ... given my feeling that CF/DH is weak with Grisham/Cordero/Naylor and some play vs ML competition will help make the decision.

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Not sure about the rules but carrying a 3rd catcher may be a hinderance. As I understand the three player "traveling taxi squad" ... one has to be a catcher. So, traveling will be 4 catchers and that means the traveling squad will be short one in a different position if needed. All that is set up to provide insurance against some positive COVID-19 results / injuries requiring quick replacement while not wanting to send someone from the home base via commercial air.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 8, 2020, 9:38 pm

I cant see the Padres not carrying three catchers, at least on the 30 man roster.  Anytime Hedges starts, Mejia is the likely DH or a possible PH for Hedges late in the game.  Without the third catcher that cant happen.

Torrens is better offensively than Hedges and better defensively than Mejia, so makes sense for him to be on the roster for more flexibility.

Plus, even if you think with COVID the starters arnt going more than 5 innings, you already have 7 or 8 really good bullpen options (dont forget the three batter minimum).  So given that "every game is a playoff game" how many times do you think Gerardo Reyes would get used?  Maybe once or twice before the rosters shrink.... MAYBE.  Even if there is a blowout I'd venture they go with Quantril or Perdomo for a few innings to give them a chance.

My guess is 15 pitchers.  5 starters, 3 "starters" (Quantril/Baez/Morejon/Perdomo), 7 relievers

Quote from Randy Manese on July 8, 2020, 10:52 pm

I think your guess is a very good one.  Got to carry 3 catchers.  My guess for the 15 pitchers are Starters:  Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Davies & Lucchesi;  "starters":  Quantril, Baez and Perdomo; Relievers:  Yates, Pagan, Pomeranz, Stammen, Strahm, Johnson & Guerra

Let LHP's Castillo and Morejon work out injuries and gain stamina - could be contributors in 2nd month

Wingenter, Bednar and Reyes could be back-ups to any issues with RH RP's

Bolanos and Eickhoff would only emerge in event of emergency as either starters or  long relief

No need to rush Gore and Patino this year despite their talents and desire to be with the team

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 6:52 am

Keeping 3 catchers probably is a function of the level of use of Mejia as a DH .... and given the rest of the roster composition .... his ability to hit LHP might just make that happen. If I remember the rule correctly ... if Mejia starts as the DH and has to move to catch during the game ... the DH is lost. With Hedges behind the plate and his inability to hit ... a PH is a real consideration in critical situations (so then bring in Torrens).

The other domino in this scenario is Naylor. Even as a LHH he seems to be able to hit LHP ... clearly better than Grisham or Cordero and about as well as Mejia. Don't want Naylor in the OF ... so given this roster ... he could just own DH full time. If so, no need for a 3rd catcher.

A lot of "small sample size" data on a lot of players that will have to fill some critical starting roles ... and only "Summer Camp" to make the right call before wins / losses start to count.

Keep in mind that "30" last only 15 days then "28" last only another 15 days. So, after one month, likely the 13 pitchers / 13 position players and keeping 3 catchers pushes out an OF? INF?

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I guess there is a good chance that Mateo (out of minor league options) goes on the COVID-19 injury list opening up a temporary slot for a 3rd catcher. Not sure the rules for coming off that list ... not the part about two negative tests making the eligible to be activated but do they have to come off the list immediately if they have some lingering issues?

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 8:27 am

Well, Mateo having COVID REALLY opens the door for Olivares now.  Pads will have to add an OF to 60-man if another OF goes down for any reason before Pham gets back; even just a few days.  Have options there.  Pads (& other teams) are saving significant $ by not having the "premium" Minors FA on their 60-man rosters but still controlling them; Juan Lagares would be getting paid six figures (full season) if he were in the Minors as part of his contract.  Instead he's getting $400/week.

A subtle reason for keeping Torrens on the initial 30-man is that he is down to his last Minors option.  If he's on O.D. roster, the unlikely possibility exists that (due to injury or illness to him or another C or other position players) he never gets optioned down.  If that happened, would have an effective "re-do" of this year in 2021:  Hedges & (out of options) Mejia, with Torrens ticketed for AAA & Campusano AA.  This would be ideal, since if Mejia only catches 15-20 games this season, the "can he stay at C" question unlikely to get answered.  If the option does get used, have a logjam with all 3 C's having to be on the active roster in 2021.

If he is optioned before O.D., on the "taxi" squad, and has to come up 2 days later, the option has already been used.  Not as important as roster fit & just building best possible team.  But a consideration.