Quote from BoosterSD on March 11, 2026, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 11, 2026, 7:54 am

Consensus is that Song will start the season on the IL (no comments on duration ... as little as 10 day).

If  expected "short" ... does it make a lot of sense to add France (non-roster who will have to be added) then quickly be DFA when Song returns. In 10 days realistically how much work will France, Castellanos, Andujar, and Sheets get covering 1B/DH? Not sitting any of the other regulars this early in the season. Can the Padres realistically change the evaluation on all of these guys after a full ST with maybe just a few AB scattered over 10 days?

I think Song will be longer than 10 days on the IL. Just a gut feeling as I have seen nothing that backs that up. So I expect France to make the Opening Day roster. I believe that we are at 39 for the 40 man, with Hoeing, Darvish, and Waldron who can all be moved to the 60 day I think.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 11, 2026, 9:30 am

In my younger athletic days I had both injuries that Song and Matsui have and while every body is different, it could take more than a month to be fully healed from either injury and reduce the risk of re-aggravation.

There certainly is no rush in bringing Matsui back, so expect him to go well beyond the 15 days on the IL; expect Padres will try to move a RP to clear some salary/roster spot.  As for Song, see him out until the home series with the Rockies.  By that time, should have a good indication whether Castellanos or France is worth keeping.    Further, Bryce Johnson is likely on a short leash and maybe even Campusano, so the entire bench pieces could look much different in April than in March.  Can't discount Miranda, Samad Taylor has had his moments as has Duran and Solak, and surprisingly good performance by Pablo Reyes thus far both in the field and at the plate.

Quote from fenn68 on March 11, 2026, 11:34 am

Agree that Preller will keep doing "tinkering" well into the season. The bench is still needing upgrades (in my view) but actually finding upgrades (at a Preller price) is not easy. Also may want to hold a bit with limited trade chips until certain Musgrove - Pivetta - King are all healthy and the others are OK for a contender. That could turn into the prime upgrade target.

I guess one thing at a time ... have to deal with Buehler (non-roster) who has an opt out 5 days before opening day. If they add Buehler (likely with an open roster slot) then have to decide if they keep both Buehler and Marquez for opening day (maybe if Musgrove starts on IL) otherwise Marinaccio seems to be the odd man out with no options (trade candidate). Like the upside of Marinaccio (but doubt other teams value that too much so no big return) and he has 4 years control / league minimum. Does Preller keep Marinaccio and trade Estrada for a bigger return (assuming Adam is back or trust Rodriguez to backfill)?

Agree that we don't see Matsui for a long time (if ever) but have to believe when Waldron returns he goes directly to DFA. Hoeing is likely a 60 day IL ... season ending. Canning on the other hand (on the roster) will get activated ... by May? ... and bump (and lose) either Buehler or Marquez.

That is a lot of IF and THEN scenarios for Preller to project and may have him  keep a bit of restraint until at least some of the dominoes fall. Plus pitchers do get injured. Padres may be walking a thin line between a very good pitching staff and a "needy" staff.

Quote from fenn68 on March 11, 2026, 12:06 pm

I am always skeptical about early ST stats from players who were not expected to contribute ... early is against a lot of minor leaguers and ML players not going at full speed. The last week or two ... as the regulars play more and with more commitment ... might do a lot to put reality back into the mix.

Except for the France / Castellanos debate (can't see keeping both for a full season) the other calls are on the fringe and may not make a big difference since they will not play all that much. None seem to be the answer if a major injury to a regular occurs.

Side: I know most just accept Sheets will get platooned vs LHP (historically bad there) but last season he was not "ugly" and the Padres seem to want to see him more vs LHP. Andujar just kills LHP so if not a platoon with Sheets he is the DH vs LHP. Has to be a squeeze on France / Castellanos in favor of Song and more defensive flexibility in the middle INF and OF.

Quote from Commie on March 11, 2026, 8:03 pm

In UT PC today or yesterday on Musgrove the words "struggle" and "setback" were both used. Have a bad feeling.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 12, 2026, 8:26 am

I think you're right.  Musgrove is one of the most upbeat players we have and if he's using those words to describe his condition, then it sure looks like he's opening the season on the 15 day IL.  With further uncertainties on the condition of Pivetta and King, it not only looks like Buehler is lock to make the 40 man but there also could be room for Gillaspie as another long RP/SP option.  It will be interesting to see how the staff shakes out at the beginning of the season and how much different will be in a month from opening day.

Quote from WindsorUK on March 12, 2026, 12:47 pm

Is there a legitimate chance the Pads break camp with Buehler, Marquez, France, Andujar and Castellanos?

75%? 90? 100?

Anyone care to guess?

If Song goes on the IR, I say all make the OD roster👍🏽

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 12, 2026, 1:01 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on March 12, 2026, 12:47 pm

Is there a legitimate chance the Pads break camp with Buehler, Marquez, France, Andujar and Castellanos?

75%? 90? 100?

Anyone care to guess?

If Song goes on the IR, I say all make the OD roster

 

Under the assumption Song and Musgrove go IL ... 99.44% chance all 5 make opening day.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 12, 2026, 1:02 pm

Concur - 100%.