Quote from LynchMob on March 21, 2021, 3:40 pm

Spring Training Pitching Leaders

Walks and hits per inning pitched

Name	Tm	OppQual	WHIP
Kenta Maeda	MIN	6.6	0.222
Nabil Crismatt	SD	6.1	0.333
Codi Heuer	CWS	8.6	0.429
Bruce Zimmermann	BAL	6.4	0.444
Jacob deGrom	NYM	8.5	0.444

Strikeouts per 9 innings

Name	Tm	OppQual	SO9
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	7.9	20.3
James Karinchak	CLE	6.4	18.5
Lucas Luetge	NYY	5.7	18.5
Jose Ruiz	CWS	6.3	18.0
Paul Sewald	SEA	4.7	18.0

Most batters faced without allowing a run

Name	Tm	OppQual	R	BF
Jose Quintana	LAA	9.0	0	39
Lance Lynn	CWS	8.5	0	34
Kenta Maeda	MIN	6.6	0	33
Domingo German	NYY	7.4	0	31
Tarik Skubal	DET	8.0	0	31
Bruce Zimmermann	BAL	6.4	0	31

Minimum 20 BF (batters faced) for rate stats 
OppQual - Quality of opposing pitchers or batters faced, varies from 1 being rookie ball to 10 full-time major leaguer

See 2021 spring training pitching statistics at Baseball-Reference.com

Quote from LynchMob on March 21, 2021, 9:45 pm

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/dinelson-lamet-ready-for-spring-training-debut

Lemet ... will make his Cactus League debut against the Giants in Scottsdale, where he’s scheduled to throw one inning.

Sunday was an eventful day in the battle for the final spot on the Padres' bench -- presumably between Brian O'Grady and Jorge Mateo. O'Grady pounded out two hits, including a leadoff triple against Shohei Ohtani. But he committed an error in the third inning, dropping a David Fletcher liner in center field. Mateo, meanwhile, singled and worked a pair of walks and also nailed Ohtani from left field when he tried to stretch a single into a double.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2021, 1:02 pm

With exactly 10 days to go until O.D., I have some "different" takes on the O.D. roster based on the 30,000 up "big picture"

SUMMARY:   I think Padres O.D. roster is going to have 5 bench position players and "only" 8 guys in the bullpen.  I believe the goal will be to get through the 7 game homestand with that lineup.  IF can do so, might be able to make it 3 more games after the off/travel day; then make move/s to add P.  Here's why:

• Grisham & Nola represent 25% of the starting lineup & both are on the verge of making opening day "healthy".  It's obvious Padres do NOT want to IL either guy, but neither may be ready to immediately assume their normal level of full health play.
• Even if Nola is on IL, 2 bench spots (C & Profar) are locks.  I think that the top down picture of:  injured Grisham, Profar & Kim hitting a combined 4 for 58 with 0 XBH so far in ST (people talking about Kim's struggles... how about Profar!), and Jorge Mateo being out of options makes Mateo a LOCK for a bench spot; it would be ludicrous to waive and definitely lose a former elite prospect who's had a great spring when others are hurt or struggling b/c O' Grady is a "better fit"... have limited OF depth; would be losing some right away.
• .... This would leave the last 4-man bench spot between:  O' Grady, Kim, and Marcano (who warrants serious consideration).
• .... 5-man "bench" would be better with either:  Nola (healthy) + 1 of these 3, OR 2 of these 3 if Nola is IL.   BECAUSE:

Pitching side:  Strahm & Guerra sure to IL.  Lamet either IL or optioned.  Pomeranz, A.Adams, P. Johnson, & T. Williams health status are ALL up in the air.  Exact opposite of position players:  better to err on side of caution & 10-day IL someone not ready than to activate them at < 100% with only 1-2 IP in ST.

• Illogical & possibly 40-man roster constricted to add NINE bullpen arms if you're missing 3-4 of your best 9!  Especially if any of your best 9 are "only" 10 days away from being eligible to return at full health off IL.  I don't see how the  12th-14th best bullpen arm option is really ever a better choice than the 5th best bench player; more of a "no choice" when they hit the 17 games in a row stretch....
• Don't NEED 9 arms in pen &/or the 6th SP ON Opening Day... can at least get a few games into season before  need arises.
• By chance the 10th game (eligible for return off 10-day IL) is the getaway day game @ Texas.  Perfect to make roster moves before flying to next series @ Pittsburgh, since the AAA team alt site is in nearby El Paso.
• I strongly suspect Pads are targetting the 1st LAD game for Lamet's regular season debut.  If Pads have Darvish & Snell pitch one time on normal 4-day rest on opening homestand, then Musgrove one time on 4-day rest on the first road trip (@ Pitt on 4/14 = his 3rd start), they could hold off using the 6th SP until the 4/15 "getaway day" game @ Pitt... then have Lamet pitch 1st game vs LAD in SD.  This would line up:  Lamet-Darvish-Snell 1st LAD series, then those 3 + Musgrove all on extra rest for the 2nd 4-game series @ LAD.  Well before this 1st series, the Pads would be at a 9-man pen.
• There is definitely 40-man roster risk for:  Jordan Humphreys, Javy Guerra, & Taylor Williams.  But last 2 could alternatively be 60-day IL to open spot/s if needed as may be; likely outcome for Guerra especially.  Would let Guerra rehab in live Minors games for more experience.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2021, 1:24 pm

Predicting WHO is on O.D. roster tougher since injury statuses, etc.  But here goes:

Active:  Grisham, Nola

O.D. Bench (5):  Caratini, Campusano, Profar, Mateo, O'Grady

10-day IL:  Pomeranz (L), Adams, Strahm (L), Williams, Guerra

5th SP: Morejon

Bullpen:  Pagan (Closer), Kela, Melancon, P. Johnson, Hill (L), Stammen, Weathers (L) (Long/6th SP), Altavilla OR Crismatt*

Grisham & Nola both make it so don't miss 1st 10 games, but < 100% & will start less than normally would to ease back.  I know it's even more unlikely on a 5-man bench to option Kim @ his $$$, but it's what I would do given combo of good ST from Mateo & O'Grady, need for OF coverage with Grisham injury, and need for C coverage with Nola injury.  Eventually exchange Campusano & O'Grady for Kim & a 9th RP, maybe after just 10 games.

Guessing Pads play long game & gamble can live 10 days without Pomeranz.  If pen was mostly healthy, now would be a good "opportunity" to DFA Altavilla off roster with decent chance he goes unclaimed.  Much harder to do with pen depth taking such an injury hit; risk losing him despite a poor ST.  But Crismatt is very tempting with his great ST & ability to offer more length in an 8-man pen, AND being the obvious "option" guy when need to rotate arms in an inflexible pen.  Altavilla would have to go off roster, creating his spot.  Probably go with Altavilla but on a very short "performance" leash.

Quote from fenn68 on March 22, 2021, 1:57 pm

I keep going in circles on the better logic for the 26 man roster TO START the season. Don't want to go with any player that they suspect may re-injure (or worsen a minor injury) that may keep them out much longer ... basically loosing more games for them over the 162 game season. Don't want to over react to ST numbers (good or bad) given all the variables with opponents effort in ST. Yet, want to win these early games.

For position players the eight starters (if healthy) will start every early game in the season ... second catcher will a few starts ... so that is nine getting virtually all the time. So, who what do they need on the bench ... most likely PH (and only if the games go south). Anyone optioned can be called up later when the demands of the season dictate periodic rests for the starters. Profar will make the roster an in the short term will be the #1 sub in the field. So, the need for pinch-hitting skills, may be the major need TO START he season. To that end #3 and #4 appears Mateo and O'Grady.

That logic would send Kim to the minors where he can get consistent work on his hitting ... sitting on the bench in the ML is not helping him. He can (will) be recalled if he looks good and either Mateo or O'Grady just tank vs. ML pitching. So the 4 man bench becomes one back-up catcher - Profar - Mateo - O'Grady. Yes, Marcano has looked good but sitting on the bench does him little good to start the season but will be an early call-up if Kim does not come around. Wound not be surprised that the bench in Sept is Caratini - Profar - Kim - Marcano.

Lamet will start on the IL with the question of his activation date ... guessing "late" April. So, Darvish, Snell, Paddack, Musgrove, and Morejon as the starting five. Since so far have not seen any of these guys building a big pitch count (or going deep) ... not sure a switch flips on opening day and then the demand the pen will be heavy early ... plus a need for more than one multi-inning arms will be there ... so go with nine RP with at least two who can come in early and give innings (or spot start). Good for Weathers until Strahm returns.

Really don't see any non-roster options to bump out a roster player TO START the season. Crismatt could be the wild card if some of the roster RP are injured or just get it together in the last eight games (think Altavilla, Williams).

Good chance the May 1 roster is very different than the Apr 1 roster after the return of Lamet, Strahm, Nola .. a couple of new injuries ... and a couple of "under performing" bench players. Plus after an April packed with games ... May is a "lighter" workload.

Quote from fenn68 on March 22, 2021, 2:15 pm

Baring a string of bad injuries in the relief corps ... I put both Altavilla and Williams on very shaky ground and likely to get DFA. Neither impressed in ST and their ML history has not been all that impressive. It is possible that the Padres could conclude that using Crismatt and/or Knehr (or another non-roster arm) with minor league options would not be worse and maybe better ... certainly more flexibility during the season.

Guerra on the IL ... if the other two get DFA no need of the 60 day (yet).

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2021, 4:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 22, 2021, 2:15 pm

Baring a string of bad injuries in the relief corps ... I put both Altavilla and Williams on very shaky ground and likely to get DFA. Neither impressed in ST and their ML history has not been all that impressive. It is possible that the Padres could conclude that using Crismatt and/or Knehr (or another non-roster arm) with minor league options would not be worse and maybe better ... certainly more flexibility during the season.

Guerra on the IL ... if the other two get DFA no need of the 60 day (yet).

 

Williams got hurt last time out falling awkwardly (?) on his shoulder covering 1B for a force out throw....  he came out of the game when it happened.   No word on severity yet.  I was thinking along lines of "excuse to stash" on IL for depth for when someone else down the road inevitably goes on IL.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2021, 5:21 pm

For position players the eight starters (if healthy) will start every early game in the season ... second catcher will a few starts ... so that is nine getting virtually all the time.

Well... Nola & Grisham are not healthy, and Profar & Kim have so far been terrible offensively.   So thinking in 10 game chunks, Nola, even if on roster may "really" be down/injured for 5 +/- days, make alternate starts eventually, etc.  That alone is the main argument for a 5-man position player bench:  allows the extra C, which would also come in handy @ Texas games 8-10 as another DH option (Campusano).

You CAN'T risk aggravating Grisham's injury, so if he is on active roster, I expect him to not play vs LHP early, maybe not start back to back games right away, etc.  Do you go to Profar's questionable CF ability on top of his (so far) atrocious Spring?  I'd give Mateo a shot batting 8th vs LHP first.

Hoping that 10 games into season we all feel more comfortable that Grisham & Nola are truly healthy.  Even if they're not, the 17 game stretch with no off days is going to force Pads hand to add a bullpen arm to get through that stretch.  But personally I HATE the idea of going into O.D. with our 13th best RP who is not going to affect the outcome of an early game (would only pitch in a win, loss, or 17 inning game) claiming an opening day roster spot over someone like O'Grady or Marcano.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2021, 5:53 pm

Wow.  I know I just left Marcano off my O.D. roster.... and I realize it's a small sample, but...

Tatis 19 vs Marcano21 ST  AB      H       2B    3B      HR       RBI     BB    K     SB    CS      BA     OBP     OPS

Tatis 2019 Breakout ST:    54      13        3       1        2        4         6     15     2       2        .241    .317      .761

Marcano 2021 ST:            29      13        3       1        1        6         4      5       1      2        .448    .529    1.254

So if Marcano goes 0-25 with 10 K the rest of ST, he will basically have equaled Tatis' breakout ST in 2019 that forced Tatis onto the OD roster (granted on a way less good team with no other real options).....  but still!   At some point you just force ownership's hand.

I had Marcano our 12th best prospect including guys traded out behind: Patino, Cole Wilcox, Hudson Head, & Blake Hunt.   So now "#8" prospect I said was "nowhere near Top 200 prospects in MLB due primarily to lack of power."

.... I'm going to buy the early hype, eat some early crow, and say definitely top 200 in MLB & headed higher.

Can not BELIEVE he's doing this.