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San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals: July 24-27
#11 · July 26, 2025, 12:49 am
104 games complete and only 58 left to play ... the plus is that they still hold onto (barely) the last Wild Card slot. Supposedly they have the 4th "easiest" schedule remaining so that is positive in theory. The other contenders also get hot / cold and have their own sets of flaws. So, holding on to a wild card slot is possible, I am beginning to think they may fall short and even if they did make the playoffs ... going deep is very unlikely with this roster.
Start with the basic of needing to score runs to win ... Padres are 25th in ML runs scored and in the last 30 days they are worse at 30th! A lot is made of the 8th and 9th spots in the order being the worst in ML for offense ... but the rest of the offense is just not driving in clutch runs. Past 30 days they are worse than earlier in the season in BA, OBP, SLG (SLG being 29th). Put this line-up vs playoff caliber pitching and they are toast!
Padres are 23-34 against teams > .500 and 24-31 AWAY from PETCO ... those two extreme losing records do not bode well for playoff performance.
Is it even possible for Preller to get enough upgrades at the trade deadline to make a real difference in the offense if the "core 7" don't start producing runs?
Pitching has been what has kept them in play but two keys are issues: King (does not appear to be returning until mid-late Aug and no assurance he will be effective since he has not pitched for months) and Darvish (back from not pitching for months and ineffective ... or just aged out). Pivetta is the only SP pitching at playoff quality levels. RP has been critical but pushing the envelope of over use and the risk of decline down the stretch.
Glad I am not Preller with limited trade chips and budget constraints trying to fix flaws quickly when the core of this team who he has relied on to produce ... is not (core hitters and King, Darvish, Cease).
#12 · July 26, 2025, 2:58 am
To answer one of your questions, no, Preller won't be able to bring in enough help to resurrect this offense. If it's going to happen, it has to happen from within. If our $100 millionaires don't figure it out, we are toast!
And for not winning on the road, or against good teams, no, this group, even WITH Arraez, Cease, and Suarez, is not good enough. Why in the world anyone would want to keep them around, just to watch them walk for nothing in 2 months, boggles the mind.
We can still make the playoffs this year, sans the FA's, but lets start building for 2026 and beyond.
#13 · July 26, 2025, 5:32 am
GM’s think differently than fans. I see no way AJ gives up on 2025 when he’s in a playoff spot 2/3 of the way through the season.
IMO he tries to add players that will help this year and next without trading the top five prospects.
I highly doubt we’re getting Duran, Kwan, etc., but….. 2–3 decent bats could be the difference in turning things around.
But we don’t really know how he feels about King, Darvish, the rest of the way
#14 · July 26, 2025, 6:12 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 26, 2025, 5:32 amGM’s think differently than fans. I see no way AJ gives up on 2025 when he’s in a playoff spot 2/3 of the way through the season.
IMO he tries to add players that will help this year and next without trading the top five prospects.
I highly doubt we’re getting Duran, Kwan, etc., but….. 2–3 decent bats could be the difference in turning things around.But we don’t really know how he feels about King, Darvish, the rest of the way
Agree he tries (not becoming a seller) ... but with limited trade chips and budget restraints not sure he will succeed improving the offense baring some real creativity. Hard to envision he has the ammo to get a quality player who is low cost and has control into 2026. Add that one of the upgrade needs is C ... not sure there is one on the market at a price Preller can afford.
However, this may be a scenario that is based on what he can do and not what he wants to do ... and go with rentals. He does have the mid-range prospects that would work to get them and only commits to 1/3 of their contract. Do what he can for 2025 in the next week and work on 2026 over the winter.
#15 · July 26, 2025, 10:03 am
After coming as close to 3.5 games back, the Padres drop to 6 games back and they have only themselves to blame.
#16 · July 26, 2025, 10:50 am
Quote from ultratvfan on July 26, 2025, 10:03 amAfter coming as close to 3.5 games back, the Padres drop to 6 games back and they have only themselves to blame.
Less worried about the LAD and catching them in the regular season than the three pursuit teams for that last Wild Card slot. Have to at least get in to beat LAD in the playoffs.
Past 10 games Padres are an unimpressive 4-6 (now 49 losses) ... but moving to 50 losses (just one game from bumping SD) is CINN (6-4) while SF drops to 50 losses (3-7 ... worse run than SD) ... and two back still is STL (4-6 ... same run as SD).
Basically four teams that are not taking the bit and running away with a real hot streak just before the trade deadline. I guess their moves next week may (or may not) determine who can grasp that last Wild Card slot ... all have major flaws.
I guess anyone can get lucky (your team gets hot or the competitors just fall out of it) and get in the playoffs then get hot (as others have done) and win the NL. Not as though any of the others: MILW; CUBS; NYM; PHIL; LAD are that great and maybe an injury away from being part of the pack.
Padres are not good ... but still can make the playoffs and win because the others are also not good ... winning is the objective (even if win ugly) ... so given there is a chance (and not a remote chance) ... almost have to make some moves to upgrade 2025 for themselves, the other players, and the fans that fill PETCO. Try in the next two months to be competitive and entertain the fans.
#17 · July 26, 2025, 11:21 am
Just as a tag-on, over the past 30 days
12 - 11 ... CINN
11 - 13 ... San Diego
10 - 13 ... SF
10 - 13 ... STL
four wild card contenders all mediocre and only 2 losses separate them ... now with two months to go ... this can go any direction.
Side: the invincible LAD went 10 - 12.
#18 · July 26, 2025, 7:55 pm
The Padres won and the Dodgers lost. Padres move up to 5 games back.
Pitching held tonight.
Padres need to get the split tomorrow.
GO PADRES!
#19 · July 27, 2025, 2:15 am
Have to give credit to the much maligned Vasquez for another good start .. only one run allowed in 4 2/3 innings.
If I remember correctly from the broadcast ... he set the Padre record with 11 consecutive starts without a decision (win or lose). However, in those 11 starts the Padres are 9-2.
Games are close ... Vasquez loses a bit the 3rd time through the line up ... Padres bullpen is exceptional ... so Shildt seems to be playing this right and pulling Vasquez earlier than most would like to get the win. As important, Vasquez seems to buy into the strategy and not get frustrated of being pulled early and not getting wins.
21 starts with a 3.64 ERA ... much better than most would have projected and solid for a mid-bottom rotation SP. Could he go longer and still be successful ... might not be able to know until the Padres give him some more runs (lead) to work with.
So thumbs up for Vasquez.
#20 · July 27, 2025, 2:28 am
Offense struggled again with only 3 runs vs a weak SP for STL.
Credit to the bottom of the order playing successful "small ball" to score runs (Cronenworth - Iglesias - Johnson - Maldonado).
Not so much the big names again ... yes they delivered 4 hits but none delivered with RISP (they had multiple chances) ... so stats look better than in game impact. Even the one Tatis RBI was grounding out with a man on 3rd that the SS bobbled or the runner would have been out at the plate.
Still a win is a win.