Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 11:01 am

A little (pleasantly) surprised no Padres lost among 18 selections, with 15 of those being P's.

Like the P depth of esp Avila & Bachar remaining in the system this year.

With only 3 position players picked, very unsurprising Buddy's still A's property.

All the potential selections NOT picked on Padres & all teams trade value goes up a little, maybe as 2nd piece in deals since don't have to use a roster spot on them.  We'll see if Pads do anything.  The "pool" of available possible RH CF capable is a LOT bigger than just Buddy Reed now.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 11:11 am

Minors guys:

• Ruta a good choice to help plug system's most glaring hole; upper level OF
• Pozo is an actual C who was in High A in 2019; think he was ticketed to be the 6th C in ST, then AA.  Rodriguez only caught 6 games in 2019, half season at Low A.   More of a RH 1B with little power.  But he can hit.  .324/.369 career in Minors.  Pretty big reach to even be 6th C in ST.
• Feliz was a pretty decent "upside" prospect we got in trade from somewhere, but results at Tri-Cities 2019 were meh

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 11:28 am

On the flip side (and probably true from every fan base) .... apparently 29 other teams did not value the Padre Rule 5 candidates as worth selecting, so maybe be we just over value them because we know them?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 1:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 11:28 am

On the flip side (and probably true from every fan base) .... apparently 29 other teams did not value the Padre Rule 5 candidates as worth selecting, so maybe be we just over value them because we know them?

Factoring in that some picks were traded, less than half the league (14 teams) actually made a pick for their roster.  It's not that we're "over-rating" our guys.  I just don't understand the logic behind the "we have to hit the jackpot" mentality of Rule 5.

There is simply no way that ALL of the 15 P's selected are both closer (probably none are) AND more ready to pitch in MLB this season than Lake Bachar & Pedro Avila (who already has!) are.  Avila I get b/c coming off TJ Surgery.  But Bachar?  Buried in Pads system behind 4-5 top 100 guys & now essentially two "1st round" 2020 draft picks.  Maybe no other team can say that.  SP is in chronic demand, teams desperately need IP in 2021 & the cost of FA SP is soaring at the same time payrolls are under massive pressure. But it's "not worth it" for 50-100K to pick:  an athletic late bloomer like Bachar who excelled at AA in 2019 (1.87 ERA in 72+ IP), with ("only") "a low to mid 90-s FB with two above average breaking balls"... b/c he's ancient at 25?   Padres gain.

There's just a fundamental disconnect to me to teams feeling compelled to picking the "toolsiest" 20 year old who's nowhere near ready, with the hope of hiding him all year, then developing him in Minors for another 1-2 years, then having him become a really significant player, when the odds are so profoundly against that happening.   The best analogy I can make would be a team saying in the REGULAR MLB draft that your team refuses to draft a player at all in the 7th - 10th rounds that doesn't have at least one 60-65 tool; it's just not representative of what's available, or a realistic expectation of what you're going to get in terms of future MLB ability FOR THE PRICE at that point....

Would love to see a GM question the norm & go against the grain & try picking less "exciting" prospects that are more ready to really help.  But not Preller... hopefully we are good enough now to stay out of Rule 5 for 8-10 years!

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 1:08 pm

Follow up thought....

Despite our full 40-man roster now, by Opening Day the glut of RP's will be cleared somehow, guys will go on 60-IL, and who knows what else will happen...  think we'll have roster spots open then.

I will be more surprised if some combo of Bachar, Avila, &/or Jake Nix DON'T get (re) Selected & log MLB IP than if they DO...

Need to keep the elite SP prospects pitching as SP's after a lost season to build their arms up.  That will open the door for this group if others:  don't perform, get hurt, get traded, or just after a long extra innings game; to come up & soak up some IP.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2020, 1:47 pm

As it stands now ... should be easy for the Padres to add four non-roster players during the season with 60 day IL (Clevinger and Wingenter) and at least two DFA of excess RP.

I would add Kennedy as a non-roster “re-add” possibility for a starter fill ... probably we will have some non-roster minor league signings of veteran seeking another chance.

Those moves coupled without locking up a 26 man slot with a Rule 5 pick does give some flexibility ... not matter where the need arises.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 11, 2020, 2:05 pm

Padres did lose two pitchers in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft but, in my opinion, they could have lost several more.  Besides the names mentioned above, I've had my eye on Henry Henry, Adrain Martinez, Evan Miller and two giant guys Jordan Guerrero and Dauris Valdez.  Sure, they are a dime a dozen relief candidates but there is deep pitching talent throughout the Padres system.  That lost year of development hurt but some of the guys that may be eligible next year - like Omar Cruz, Reiss Knehr or Luarbert Arias -  are making it tougher every year to not lose good pitchers to Rule 5; can't roster all of them!

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2020, 3:14 pm

More of those guys are protected in the Minors draft than you think... another entire roster (not sure how many guys, think it's at least 30).   So all of the Majors R5 prospects like Bachar, Valdez, Guerrero, E. Miller would be protected on the Minors "AAA" roster.  And it's ONLY the guys eligible to be taken (same as MLB portion).  Most guys in Minors are either FA 1 yr signings in AAA or are still under team control.

It was interesting how many guys WERE picked in Minors portion of R5 at $24 K each.  Seems like a lot of $ for "non prospects" until you realize almost every team lost guys also so really a wash $ wise.   Pads actually "net" $24K b/c they lost 3, picked 2.  Kind of a cascading waterfall of hole plugging.  Still a little weird so many guys moving with Minors contracting this year.  In theory, every team would have more than enough players to plug holes at least this year; but obviously not every position at every level.

Pozo was selected by Texas; where we had just signed him away from as a Minors FA.  So Texas had to pay $24K to get him back at whatever deal he signed with Pads vs. just re-signing him in the first place.  Guessing Pozo not thrilled, but he must know Texas' Minors pitchers extremely well.  Wonder if Pads saw it coming b/c they picked "C" (more 1B) Rodriguez  before Texas took Pozo back.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 12, 2020, 2:38 am

Brian, thanks for the information.  I had no idea there was a protected 30 man minor roster to shield players from the Rule 5.  I thought the 4 years for a college draftee and 5 for HS/international signee (generally) applied to all players in the system from AAA to Rookie ball that weren't on the 40 man.  You've piqued my curiosity - I'll have to do some research to find the exact language to educate myself.  Thanks again!