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Rule 5

So nice to be wasting time saying "who should we protect" instead of "who should we take" 🙂

Not sure about there being "at least 6" guys we "have to protect" read somewhere though...

End of August after big 3 of Paddack, Espinoza, & Austin Allen I had these 5 guys in order:

Hansel Rodriguez, Edward Olivares, Michael Gettys, Ty France, Pedro Avila.

Rodriguez only pitched for a month & has only pitched 2 innings in AFL... think they can leave him exposed.  Seems too raw to stick even if selected.

Chance either or both Olivares/Gettys gets selected in Rule 5, but doesn't make sense for Pads to protect both with deep MLB OF plus Buddy Reed now ahead of both, and good A ball guys behind them.  Olivares has more upside but clearly isn't MLB ready yet.  Could really bloom, but feels more like Alberth Martinez (remember him?)  Gettys is what he is; but may still be enough to find MLB as 5th OF.

Avila is ascending, but still about #11-12 among Pads P prospects .  High K rate, but only a "50" grade FB not the typical Rule 5 selection RP profile.  Anyone who's seen him first hand able to compare his stuff to Miguel Diaz or Luis Perdomo?  I haven't but remember that Perdomo had a "50" overall grade & Diaz' stuff clearly warranted same.  Avila is a "45" overall.

Ty France is a  tough call.  Doesn't look like the power for an everyday 3B, but hard for the Pads not to protect a .374 career OBP!

There's more chance of losing an edge of roster guy far from MLB due to a waiver claim during season than Rule 5.

I would not be surprised to see only 4 guys protected.   What's everyone think?  Am I overlooking anyone?

As I see it there are a minimum of 5 prospects likely to be added (all in the Top 30):

#5.  Paddack (RHP)

#12. Espinosa (RHP)

#25. A. Allen (C)

#28. Olivares (OF)

#29. Avila (RHP)

plus I would consider one RP ... Rodriguez maybe someone else.

So maybe a minimum of +6.  Offsets? I will suggest: Asuaje; Pirela; Guerra; Lockett; Rea; Brewer. IF there is someone else maybe Torrens but keep in mind that mid-season they may want to add a non-roster type (e.g. Tatis, L.Allen, Munoz) so they may need to gamble a bit now so they have some flexibility at that point.

Not likely any of the 6 added or the 6 dropped would be factors in 2019 BUT in 2020 and beyond the 6 added could be factors (or could be dropped later) but the 6 dropped now have virtually no future.

Don't see Gettys having any chance getting protected (or selected) given his washout in AA. Probably some discussion on France but a AA 3B with a "nice" bat is unlikely to get picked (and kept). So no on France.

Will agree that there is a better risk than in the past of players being selected and kept ... call it the Preller effect ... since more teams are willing to avoid mediocrity and go bad to add talent for the future so selecting / keeping Rule 5 types (think Perdomo, Diaz, Cordoba, Torrens) may be more acceptable to more teams. On the other side, if you lost those four ... would you be devastated and would the future of the team bey destroyed ... no.

One of the big issues with having kept 3 Rule 5 guys 2 years ago was that 2 of those guys last year were & still are "deep minors", and some guys you protect are typically in that category too.  On this list:  Espinoza, Olivares,  Avila (and Rodriguez) are NOT getting to MLB in 2019.

My point is:  You can only dedicate a few 40-man spots to guys who have zero chance of being in MLB that year, or it compromises your roster flexibility too much.  EVERY guy on season end 40-man except Torrens spent some time in MLB last year (some on  DL), and you know many non-protected guys  are going to arrive:  Tatis, L. Allen, Quantrill...

Better chance of retaining some fringe guys  by risking Rule 5 than exposing them to waivers mid-season.  The #25-30 ranked guys are probably at least 10 spots better (15-20) in most seasons, but still probably fringe contributors esp on a playoff caliber team

 

Understand the concept but the 6 drops ... to me ... have no value to the Padres would probably clear waivers (would not care if taken) and most (maybe all) and end up in AAA if needed but would suspect that the other 34 on on 40 man could handle the temporary call-up needs ... team in 2019 is not a contender.

If mid-season they wanted to add a non-roster piece it is either a player went 60 day DL (likely 1 or 2 will go that way) or there is a player they would be willing to waive (e.g. Richard, Wick, ....). Would expect the opportunity for the non-roster adds mid-season will come from some trade deadline moves (or injuries).

The 6 adds at least have a chance to contribute in the future and are legit risks of being plucked away in Rule 5. IF they don't develop ... just DFA them and then why care if they get claimed.

Bottom line is that this winter there are more 40 roster names I would have no issue with dropping than the 6 I suggested ... just don't have more adds that work for me.

Now hopefully Preller makes some trades (e.g. 2 for 1 as a roster upgrade or 1 for a non-roster upgrade) that makes adding the 6 less debatable. On a team that lost nearly 100 games ... not sure there are many names getting stress about losing.

True on drops, but no matter how much you reconfigure, it's tough to get through a season with too many 40-man guys at A+/AA.

I've got:  Cordoba, Lockett, Brewer, and Asauje as very likely cuts.  Greg Garcia looks to have supplanted Asuaje

Possibles:  Torrens, Rea, Rowan Wick, Guerra, Brett Kennedy, Pirela, Spangenberg (non-tender).

No Sept callup usually kiss of death, but Rea was near innings limit off TJ & had some impressive outings at end of season, and Pads wanted to see Nix, etc.  Rea same age as Erlin, but more years of control, more upside; but TJ surgery/recovery was 6 months behind Erlin.  I've got him 8th on depth chart (assuming health) right NOW behind Erlin & Perdomo, but ahead of Nix & Kennedy.  Nix needs to figure out how to miss some bats, his K/9 is a huge red flag.  Kennedy has to use other pitches besides avg FB WAY more.

Guerra may stick until SS resolved.  Pirela would be useful cheap optionable depth.  I argued Garcia > Spangy also due to SS capable, better OBP & pinch hitter.  But depends on what Pads do at 3B.  I do like the platoon with Villanueva idea until something better comes along.

You have a good list of marginal 40 man roster names that even after dropping 6 initially create either a basis of call-up candidates coupled with the names that you did not list but would still be on the 40 man (mainly pitchers are needed) or if they (or the 25 man roster player) just underperform early could be DFA and a non-roster player added.

Not all that sure any of the names you listed will be around in 2020 ... especially if they solidify the 2020 ML players and also add a decent crop of 2020 Rule 5 protected prospects.

I am sort of "floating" through the 2019 roster / season as one that builds for 2020 and not so much 2019 wining. With that in mind, would not be surprised to see a quick trigger on any 40 man roster player that is not really part of the future and struggles in the beginning of the season getting DFA and non-roster players added to give them more ML time in 2019 as development for 2020 ... if a non-roster player is doing well in the minors.

To that end, would expect players such as Tatis and L.Allen arriving earlier than some expect (June 1?). With L.Allen, Richard and Mitchell are at high risk to get DFA.

 

IMO its too early to give up on Torrens and Cordoba.

Before last year Cordoba was great with the bat and Torrens had a pretty good 2018.

Plus they are at premium positions so even if blocked by Tatis,Hedges,Mejia they would make good trade pieces in the next

couple seasons if they continue to progress.

Would much rather lose under achieving/fringe players like Rea,Brewer,Lockett,Guerra etc who have no future trade value.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-11-18/padres-offseason-leagues-michael-gettys-josh-naylor-gerardo-reyes

The 6-foot-1, 200-pound Gettys homered on Sunday for the Indios de Mayaguez and is 3-for-10 with two RBIs, a steal and four strikeouts against one walk in his first three games this winter.