Quote from Brian Connelly on August 18, 2019, 10:58 am

Yup.  Need to have average MLB OBP or better to be a legit playoff contender, or 7th/8th range in NL...

Pads are headed in that direction.   2020:

• C:  Much better with starter playing time now to Mejia.  Think they go another year with Hedges, but he's clearly a trade candidate.
• 1B:  "Equal" (Positive).  Have to hope Hosmer doesn't have a down year.  Might cede a small # of starts vs LHP to RH like France or Myers, which could have a positive impact.
• 2B:  Much better.  This could be the single biggest improvement with Urias all year > Kinsler months.
• SS:  Slightly better?  Have to expect some regression from rookie year #'s, but hopefully better health improving things for those 2 months.
• 3B:  Slightly better?  Hope Machado's BA improves his 2nd full year in NL, but his OBP is close to career avg
• LF:  Much better.  Reyes' power was great, but his OBP well below league average.  Myers 3 months of atrocity.  Whatever combo put out there next year even if Myers still part of it should be better in this regard by default.
• CF:  Much better.  2nd half improvement from Margot, but ANY LH CF (Jankowski, Cordero, Trammell 2nd 1/2?) should really help OBP #'s here
• RF:  "Equal" (Negative).  No reason to think Renfroe is suddenly going to improve his OBP 25 points.  Any improvement would be a huge bonus.
• Bench:  Much better.  Garcia has been excellent, but LH OF all year would help here, and anyone should be > Kinsler.

Summary:  Dramatic improvement less likely to come from the big stars than from the other positions, bench, and just better functional lineup (i.e. don't waste Tatis' power in the leadoff spot)

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2019, 12:00 pm

Assuming the Padres don't trade for a corner OF with some on base skills (not out of the question if he is a LHH) ... an OF of Myers - Margot - Naylor playing the bulk of the games should deliver a much improved OBP. Jankowski properly inserted v. RHP would also help. With the other parts .... good chance the Padres move into the upper half of the NL OBP rankings.

Renfroe is the weak link with a career sub-300 OBP and turning 28 ... don't expect that to improve. If he remains ... may be best served lower in the batting order so as not to kill rallies created by the top of the order.

IF there is any decent trade market for Renfroe and / or Hedges more than willing to explore it. Both are probably at their peak offensively. That would probably mean committing to Naylor (RF) and Mejia (C) ... with Allen stepping up as the back-up C (but Torrens on his heals if a mid-season replacement is needed) and a bit of a fishing trip for a back up RHH OF .... not that hard to find if it is a back-up profile and all the "veterans" looking for employment in the FA market.

Rest of the season evaluating Naylor and Mejia may clarify the Padres approach.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2019, 3:51 pm

Are we sure an OF of Myers-Margot-Naylor will be that much of an improvement?

After all....the first halves of both Myers and Margot left a lot to be desired.

Ive grown weary of assuming each season will bring improvement.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2019, 4:40 pm

Quote from David Nevin on August 18, 2019, 3:51 pm

Are we sure an OF of Myers-Margot-Naylor will be that much of an improvement?

After all....the first halves of both Myers and Margot left a lot to be desired.

Ive grown weary of assuming each season will bring improvement.

 

Today I can be sure there will be improvement ... next year on this date I could have been wrong ... always too many variables that change the landscape.

Without over analyzing it .... considering the current full season of players being hot and cold ...  dropping (or reducing playing time) for the lowest OBP OF (Reyes and Renfroe) who had about half the PA so far for OF in 2019 ... and giving those PA to the three that are better OBP (Margot, Naylor, and Myers) SHOULD be an improvement.

How much an improvement ... no idea ... but any improvement helps.

Same goes for reducing playing time for the other bottom rung OBP players .... Kinsler and Hedges ... hard to envision Urias and Mejia being worse over a full season even if they are not good.

From memory ... think something like a .015 improvement would get them to 7th in the NL (up to about .335) and a .020 improvement would get them up to 4th. Doesn't sound like much but apparently that small differential has a bigger run producing impact that one would think.

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2019, 4:51 pm

Going to be a tough 3 game set coming up in CINN with

Lauer v Bauer (although only one letter separates them)

Quantrill v Gray

TBD v Castillo

Three strong pitchers for CINN but they will be without Votto ... so something to balance the playing field.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 18, 2019, 6:55 pm

C'mon Fenn, where's the optimism? Our lumber yard should be open for BIG  business in Cincy's little band box of a stadium. I'm expecting multiple HR's from the likes of Renfroe, Machado, Mejia, hell, maybe even Naylor.

Our young guns will come out strong as well! I'm expecting Lauer and Quantril to both go deep in their starts.

Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on August 19, 2019, 2:06 pm

Since Trammel is “struggling” in AA after the big trade in July (as struggling before too it should be noted), wondered how the other principles are doing (a guess how happy the others are with the deal)

1. Puig: pre-trade 252/302/475 ... post trade 351/422/579 (Cleveland happy)

2. Reyes: pre-trade 255/314/536 ... post trade 156/188/281 (Cleveland unhappy)

3. Bauer: pre-trade (24 starts 3.79 ERA / 1.21 WHIP) ... post trade (3 starts 7.31 ERA / 1.56 WHIP) (Cincinnati unhappy)

4. Allen ... not effective in the minors either pre or post trade.

Changing teams / leagues is tough and trades are just gambles.

Overal Cleveland has to be really happy ... cleared payroll in 2020 for an unwanted Bauer ... got 1 year of a very productive Puig ... got some potential going forward with Reyes / Allen ... all this while still sitting in a WC slot in 2019

Cincinnati maybe neutral ... Bauer under performed and the Reds basically have fallen out of the WC race ... they had to pick up a large 2020 arb salary ... but may have a 2020 chance to contend ... and giving up Trammel is just a wild card move with a prospect.

San Diego maybe neutral .... if they saw no future for Reyes in the NL and only saw Allen as a potential #5 SP then the high upside gamble on a Top 50 prospect is worth it. IF Trammel washes out ... maybe nothing really lost.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on August 19, 2019, 2:27 pm

Quote from David Nevin on August 18, 2019, 3:51 pm

Are we sure an OF of Myers-Margot-Naylor will be that much of an improvement?

After all....the first halves of both Myers and Margot left a lot to be desired.

Ive grown weary of assuming each season will bring improvement.

 

I still have hope that Margot can pull it together and become a solid ML contributor.

Myers is what he is... a streaky player who, at times, can perform at an elite level and who, most of the time, will nose dive into an unplayable state.

Naylor is a fat idiot who maybe will hit but always will be a terrible OF. Dude has failed to communicate at LEAST 3 times that I can remember (all 3 times nearly resulting in collisions), takes terrible routes, has no idea where or when to throw the ball, and shows inconsistent effort on defense.

Quote from LynchMob on August 19, 2019, 2:28 pm

If Padres get into a Save situation tonight, who is the closer?  Kirby has pitched a lot lately, so has Munoz ... doesn't seem like Stammen can/will be next ... so ... who?