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Padres vs Diamondbacks September 5-7
#21 · September 5, 2022, 7:14 pm
Soto … Bell … Drury … Hader: All big time players with upper level stats this year … BEFORE they were Padres. Impossible to fathom how all 4 could have the bottom totally fall out, not just a little, but as bad as can be for elite players.
The national media loved the moves … have moved to trying excuses on why this happened (e.g. change in difficult) … or just gone silent on their performance since apparently they too got it wrong.
No clutch … no power … no impact. After a month … not getting better for some high paid players in Soto ($17MM), Bell ($10MM), and Hader ($11MM) and clearly making the trades look bad if the intent was to secure a 2022 playoff slot.
Could this be a case for NOT making trade deadline moves with a team’s top prospects to try to get an immediate result? Could this be a statement about the stats used to evaluate individual players being out of sync with in game productivity / impact? Could this be a warning sign on over evaluation players with good stats on bad teams (WASH/CINN)?
No idea but in a playoff run … one month of bad productive is a serious problem.
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lafnboy13
#22 · September 5, 2022, 7:18 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on September 5, 2022, 5:43 pmQuote from fenn68 on September 5, 2022, 5:24 pmSoto fails again in the clutch … the rookie pitcher went right after him and won the battle.
At what point does Melvin move him BEHIND Manny?
He hits for s**t in front of him, may as well try behind?
Not impressed AT ALL by Soto....yet.....
I was on that theme a few day ago … noting that Soto has hit (successfully) for the bulk of his career in the 3-4-5 slots and hitting 2nd was well below his norm.
#23 · September 5, 2022, 10:28 pm
Maybe alternate Manny and Soto on a day to day basis? 3 one day, 4 the next? With Bell in the 5 hole?
Cronenworth has hit for s**t as well since the deadline. Move him back to the 2 hole, behind Profar.
#24 · September 5, 2022, 10:32 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on September 5, 2022, 6:27 pmQuote from Alex Tamayo on September 5, 2022, 6:09 pmForget about this one guys, if we only had a couple of good hitters to complement our offense, maybe Soto and Bell from the Nats, what do you think? Ooh wait...
Honestly, it was more fun for me to dream on the futures of Abrams, Gore, Hassell, Susana and especially Wood than it is to actually WATCH Bell, Drury, Hader and Soto fail in real time. That's just sad.
I wanted to like your post 1000 times Jason!
I want to root for home grown players once again in my lifetime. As long as Preller is here, that won't happen.
My next favourite Padre moment will be when Seidler s**t cans him!
#25 · September 6, 2022, 4:13 am
The conundrum with Preller is that he one of the best in finding prospect talent and building a strong farm system … players we can dream on. He should have remained the head of scouting.
His trades (and major FA signings) have not worked out … consistently. I don’t know why his player evaluation of prospects is so much better than his evaluation of established players. Frankly beyond trades, his big money signings of Shields, Hosmer along with extensions for Myers, Tatis have not panned out … Machado appears to to be the exception (for now).
I guess we are at the point when the all those fans who pushed for trading the prospects in the win now mode are silenced. The group that was tired of losing and rooting on prospects that “never materialize” … and there were a quite a few. The perception was the Padres were close and this is their best chance with the veteran adds … a lot of pressure to win or get fired.
Oddly, might also criticize the “spend to win” folks … Padres opened the wallet to the 6th highest payroll and over the CBT tax level … that in turn enabled Preller to pursue trades (and FA signings) of big money players at the expense of the low cost prospects.
Lose with a great farm system and a poor ML roster … lose with a barren farm system and underperforming veterans … is their another choice for the Padres?
On the other hand, Padres actually are heading for the playoffs and Preller has had success in deals for Musgrove, Darvish, Snell and lower cost FA signings such as Kim and Profar. So, not a total failure.
To be clear would not have made the Soto deal (at the time of the deal not just now in retrospect) … just though too much prospect capital used for a very expensive player who was very unlikely to resign with the Padres (Boras agent and turned down a mega offer from WASH). Also, would have not made that over the top extension for Tatis (or any player). I would go “long term” if deals were more like ATL’s with Acuna / Albies’ or CLEV with Ramirez …
At this point it looks as though the “go for it all” now strategy is leading directly to a new dark age with no farm system and major components of the current roster departing in the next two years. Padres can’t (and shouldn’t) try to spend their way out of the situation … can add enough quality to fill out a roster with just money dumped on old FA.
#26 · September 6, 2022, 5:59 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2022, 4:13 amThe conundrum with Preller is that he one of the best in finding prospect talent and building a strong farm system … players we can dream on. He should have remained the head of scouting.
His trades (and major FA signings) have not worked out … consistently. I don’t know why his player evaluation of prospects is so much better than his evaluation of established players. Frankly beyond trades, his big money signings of Shields, Hosmer along with extensions for Myers, Tatis have not panned out … Machado appears to to be the exception (for now).
I guess we are at the point when the all those fans who pushed for trading the prospects in the win now mode are silenced. The group that was tired of losing and rooting on prospects that “never materialize” … and there were a quite a few. The perception was the Padres were close and this is their best chance with the veteran adds … a lot of pressure to win or get fired.
Oddly, might also criticize the “spend to win” folks … Padres opened the wallet to the 6th highest payroll and over the CBT tax level … that in turn enabled Preller to pursue trades (and FA signings) of big money players at the expense of the low cost prospects.
Lose with a great farm system and a poor ML roster … lose with a barren farm system and underperforming veterans … is their another choice for the Padres?
On the other hand, Padres actually are heading for the playoffs and Preller has had success in deals for Musgrove, Darvish, Snell and lower cost FA signings such as Kim and Profar. So, not a total failure.
To be clear would not have made the Soto deal (at the time of the deal not just now in retrospect) … just though too much prospect capital used for a very expensive player who was very unlikely to resign with the Padres (Boras agent and turned down a mega offer from WASH). Also, would have not made that over the top extension for Tatis (or any player). I would go “long term” if deals were more like ATL’s with Acuna / Albies’ or CLEV with Ramirez …
At this point it looks as though the “go for it all” now strategy is leading directly to a new dark age with no farm system and major components of the current roster departing in the next two years. Padres can’t (and shouldn’t) try to spend their way out of the situation … can add enough quality to fill out a roster with just money dumped on old FA.
I may agree ..I may disagree .. But Lets Stop looking back
We need to Focus on the Here and Now..Today we need to turn this Offense at Petco ON.. URGENCY has creeped in .. If there ever was a MUST WIN day thus season TODAY is it...
Pedal to the Metal.. Lets Go Padres!
#27 · September 6, 2022, 6:54 am
The silver lining in all of this is IF we make the playoffs we will be on the road for all games in the 1st round which could actually give us a chance to score more than 2 runs or less .
#28 · September 6, 2022, 7:32 am
For the rest of the season only 3 teams to watch …. Padres, Brewers, Phillies … two will make the playoffs then the games change and anything can happen.
Never know who suddenly gets really hot (or really cold) but Padres are in a good position and MILW is not.
Padres have a 74-62 record so IF they just go 13-13 in their remaining games end up with 87 wins. PHIL is 73-61 and IF they go 14-14 they hit 87 wins.
However, MILW is at 71-63 and to get to 87 wins has to go 16-12 (.571) which is better than their season winning percentage of .520. Plus if the Padres own the tiebreaker with MILW they actually have to win one more game to unseat the Padres.
Yes, Padres do have to win some games but MILW has no room to lose many games or even play to their season record. PHIL has the same scenario with MILW. It is possible that if PHIL suddenly tanks (worse than the Padres) … Padres are still in even if MILW gets blazing hot.
So … odds are looking good for the playoffs … but odds are not always right.
#29 · September 6, 2022, 7:50 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2022, 7:32 amFor the rest of the season only 3 teams to watch …. Padres, Brewers, Phillies … two will make the playoffs then the games change and anything can happen.
Never know who suddenly gets really hot (or really cold) but Padres are in a good position and MILW is not.
Padres have a 74-62 record so IF they just go 13-13 in their remaining games end up with 87 wins. PHIL is 73-61 and IF they go 14-14 they hit 87 wins.
However, MILW is at 71-63 and to get to 87 wins has to go 16-12 (.571) which is better than their season winning percentage of .520. Plus if the Padres own the tiebreaker with MILW they actually have to win one more game to unseat the Padres.
Yes, Padres do have to win some games but MILW has no room to lose many games or even play to their season record. PHIL has the same scenario with MILW. It is possible that if PHIL suddenly tanks (worse than the Padres) … Padres are still in even if MILW gets blazing hot.
So … odds are looking good for the playoffs … but odds are not always right.
We've played sub .500 ball for the past 2 1/2 months, and aren't looking very strong( especially with #2 run producer Drury out) AND have a tough schedule the rest of the way.
Asking .500 now is a bit of a stretch. I'm thinking we end up at 85, if we're lucky.
Let's hope Milwaukee doesn't get hot because we haven't shown any signs all summer that we can.
Time to cross our fingers and hope for some luck.....we'll most likely need it.
#30 · September 6, 2022, 8:26 am
Yeh, it still race. Just not overestimating MILW and PHIL. In the past 30 days:
Padres - 13-13
MILW - 13-14
PHIL - 14-13
No team is meeting the challenge of the playoff race and “winning” a playoff slot. Looking as though two teams may lose their way into the playoffs.
The “quality gap” between SD, PHIL, MILW vs LAD, NYM, STL, ATL is significant from a regular season standpoint. Then again the playoffs are their own animal … on the road and Soto - Bell - Drury flip the switch and Padres can be a strong force to go deep.
Past 30 days: ATL (20-6); STL (20-8); LAD (18-9); NYM (16-11) are all going down the stretch strong.