Quote from sportwarrior on April 8, 2024, 12:48 pm

My best friends would accuse me of being "stupidly optimistic" in most aspects of my life... But man, I cannot bring myself to feel optimistic about this team's offense or about, in particular, Manny or Xander. I think they'll rebound, sure, but Manny doesn't look interested and Xander doesn't look capable of being the stars we need them to be. For all the hype and hope, it sure feels like we're turning into the NL version of the Angels.

Quote from Randy Manese on April 8, 2024, 2:02 pm

Still a small sample size but with regard to Manny, his barrel rate and hard hit ball percentage are at his historical levels, however, his ground ball rate is abnormally high - over 20% above his norms.  Only comments regarding his elbow surgery were that it affected his throwing but it might also be affecting his ability to elevate the ball into line drives and fly balls.  This should correct itself as he moves further away from his surgery.

With regard to Bogaerts, he's down 5-6% on his historical barrel rate and 10-15% from his hard hit percentage.  He's within his historical norms for Line Drives/Ground Balls/Fly Balls so it might just be a timing thing before he gets bat squarely on the ball.

The other guy with the low batting average, Kim, is right on target with barrel, hard hit and batted ball stats so it might just be a matter of the whims of baseball and everything will come around.

The guy I'm most concerned about is Tatis.  He's down almost 20% in barrel rate from his first 2 years in the league and also down 5-10% in hard hit percentage.  Needs to find the answer to declining barrel rate consistently and once he does that (if he does that) we'll see the guy we all remember as one of the best in baseball.  Thought he might have worked it out over the winter but not there yet.  We'll see where he is a month from now.

May have to move Tatis or Kim up to the #1 spot and Bogaerts down to #5 or #2 until we see more production from the top of the line-up.  I'd leave the bottom of the line-up just as it is from Profar to Campusano to Wade to Merrill and send down Pauley to get more reps.  Don't think I'd bring Sullivan back just yet - maybe OF's Bryce Johnson or Locastro - to add a little speed/OBP from the bench.  I'd then move Otto to the 60 man IL to clear a roster spot.  Pauley should go to El Paso and replace Mondou on the roster.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2024, 2:30 pm

As fans (or media type who want to instigate fan interaction) it is hard to avoid a panic mentality even if it is just 12 games for the Padres. Looking across the league and we see a large number of big name stars hitting worse than Manny, Kim, or Bogaerts.

I keep hearing a growing murmur of needing to start shuffling the line-up because player A is not hitting to expectations or player B is on a hot streak … sort of the opposites thoughts from previous seasons where if they only could set a line-up the players could settle in and start producing. (I am more in the latter camp … and after 12 games not all that much to go on).

Although I would not have set the line-up as Shildt did … have to assume Shildt had his logic, so should live with it a bit longer to better validate (or invalidate) that logic … maybe 25-30 games (100 AB). Need to not only address who should be moved out of their current slot but who should move in based on production … not sure I see both sides yet or at least confident in pieces.

Too little to be sure of a better set-up … for now only different but not better.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 8, 2024, 2:40 pm

Slight shake up with the lineup today. Profar and Kim swapped at 5/6 and Merrill 8th with Wade 9th.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2024, 2:45 pm

Listening to Acee on the D.Smth show … Manny was a discussion point. Consensus was Manny will be come around and be the #4 hitter we are paying for and should not worry.

Yet, they did put a little uncertainty in Manny’s future and some uncertainty of the recovery time table … currently “tentatively” back to 3B at the end of the month. Remember originally a 4-6 month recovery … could be ready for 3B in ST … then maybe opening day … then a “set-back” in ST pushing to the 6 month point (that is now) … then now set to the end of month. The real tease is Manny (who never discusses his injuries) on Sunday indicated that his doctors suggest he would not be back to normal until 2025 an left the impression that he may not be 3B full time even if he returns there in 2024 (or is there a chance he will be DH a major part of the season?).

That uncertainty with the potential of Manny spendings lot of time at DH … has to have an impact on if they add another bat (and who) if 3B becomes more a need and DH less a need … likely only one move will be made. When is also more an open question.

Bottom line for me, Manny status and production become the critical path for decisions and that is putting a lot on hold.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2024, 2:58 pm

In the case of facts getting in the way of a position a media voice wants to sell … listened to a discussion that not to worry about Manny’s slow start because he always starts slow. Well,

for his career his MAR/APR has delivered a 130 wRC+ (second best month just below JUL at 131) … 2024 wRC+ 89. For a broader reference 1st half (127) vs 2nd half (117) with Sept/Oct being his worst at 106.

Sure a lot of April to go and Manny can go on a hot streak get to his norms (sort of said that in 2023) … but the point is the false commentary to avoid the issue.

After 12 games … just can’t draw a conclusion or even speculate that well.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2024, 3:03 pm

Shildt is makes some changes in the line-up … minor:

Profar and Kim flip the #5 - #6 slots

Merrill and Wade flip the #8 - #9 slots.

Quote from WindsorUK on April 8, 2024, 3:48 pm

100% belief in a set line up. But you need to put the right hitters in the right spot.

Never a believer in Bogaerts as a leadoff guy, nor Kim as a 5.

Has Merrill ever hit leadoff? If so, he has the speed and strike zone awareness to be possibly the guy?

I still think FTJ is our best leadoff guy.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2024, 5:11 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on April 8, 2024, 3:48 pm

100% belief in a set line up. But you need to put the right hitters in the right spot.

Never a believer in Bogaerts as a leadoff guy, nor Kim as a 5.

Has Merrill ever hit leadoff? If so, he has the speed and strike zone awareness to be possibly the guy?

I still think FTJ is our best leadoff guy.

Might be too soon for Merrill to come up for the bottom of the line-up … the league has yet to get a good read on him and alter their approaches … then see if Merrill adapts and hold up.

Also, Merrill is hitting but not yet taking the walk … good BA but OBP is a work in process.

———————-

Agree Bogaerts should at #5 … will free him up to be his normal self … and that has been a good RBI guy.

If they slot a good on base guy at #9 … Tatis can still deliver the RBI leading off while in the 1st inning get the game going fast.

Kim not sure … he crushed LHP (good for lead-off) but so-so vs RHP last year and has not been hitting currently … so not sure a move to #1 is the best current move. Maybe #2 behind Tatis since is he more contact vs power.

Still need more than 12 games to make a clean call on the “better” mix … if there is a “better” mix.