Quote from 3fingersplit on December 13, 2018, 3:21 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 13, 2018, 1:03 pm

I can see

 

Mets get JT + Reed (Pads AA)

Pads get Noah

Marlins get Comforto + Mejia + Morejon + Naylor

 

seems like Rookie GM has a hard on for JT,,, so why not underpay a bit and get our THOR

 

In that sane article it lists Reds, LAD, PADRES and 2 others a still in on JT... Mets need us or NYY (and that seemed to fizzle) to get JT.... We are like the ONE team here with TWO seats at the table.. we can go get Noah OR get JT and keep him all to ourselves.... Talks with Mets were all but dead (because NYM were asking Tatis Jr or Gore, now they've soften, and NEED US to get JT, so why not underpay a little for Noah and have them pay more for JT... Welcome to the MLB brother

Not a Chance....4 for 1 ?

No Way....Thor is not worth that gamble with so little control and the fact that it only takes ONE pitch to end it....see Lamet

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 3:38 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 13, 2018, 1:03 pm

I can see

 

Mets get JT + Reed (Pads AA)

Pads get Noah

Marlins get Comforto + Mejia + Morejon + Naylor

 

seems like Rookie GM has a hard on for JT,,, so why not underpay a bit and get our THOR

 

In that sane article it lists Reds, LAD, PADRES and 2 others a still in on JT... Mets need us or NYY (and that seemed to fizzle) to get JT.... We are like the ONE team here with TWO seats at the table.. we can go get Noah OR get JT and keep him all to ourselves.... Talks with Mets were all but dead (because NYM were asking Tatis Jr or Gore, now they've soften, and NEED US to get JT, so why not underpay a little for Noah and have them pay more for JT... Welcome to the MLB brother

Henry, you are dead on that Padres have leverage over the Mets because we could go over the top of any other team to get JTR... see next post.

But others are correct that it would take WAY more than Buddy Reed to get Thor.  JTR + Thor's WAR 2018 & career are very similar, as are projected arb $.  So could argue that they are equal assets for 2 years control of JTR.... but you still have to account for 3rd year of Thor.  That's worth more than Buddy Reed.  Mets won't deal Thor unless they feel like they're coming out ahead in WAR the 1st 1-2 years of the deal... i.e. MLB assets.  PLUS you have them dealing Conforto?

.....SEE "TRADE FOR FRONTLINE SP" THREAD...

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 4:51 pm

OK, I'm posting here, because this is just what if Pads do a straight trade for Realmuto.

I proposed:  Mejia + Patino + Erlin  for JTR and a prospect back in the 3-way deal.  Let's drop the prospect back.

Say Pads make this deal.  Assume Mets just won't make a reasonable deal for Thor.

What happens then?  Obvious:  We deal Hedges.  Doesn't get this same return back, BUT he's elite defensive improving offense 4 years cheap control (roughly same as JTR for 2 yrs?) MLB starting C... has SOME significant value. At least a top 100 prospect?

This effectively allows Pads to massively upgrade their already good C situation by getting Realmuto... for way below what any other team can get him for, b/c we recoup some of the cost with the subsequent trade of Hedges.  If net a prospect back that "=" Patino (top 100), could say we're trading Brad Hand & Robbie Erlin for Realmuto.

Other (less likely) version:  Hedges in deal to acquire JTR... now we've got Mejia as built in successor.

And we either extend, re-sign, or lose JTR in 2 years & get comp pick/s back.

Quote from Booster SD on December 13, 2018, 7:49 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 13, 2018, 11:17 am

If by pushing dollars around I have the equivalent of Myers contract embedded in 3 years of Cobb, I would not touch it. Hard to say but see Myers as a much better option (risk wise) going forward .... remember he is versatile at 1B/3B/LF/CF/RF

Actually in both cases, the objective may be to reduce the contract commitments ... not just exchange among losing teams. Deck chairs on the Titanic!

• Although they’re in a rebuild, the Orioles are “open to taking on a salary” in order to acquire outfield help, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. The O’s sought outfielders throughout the Winter Meetings, Trezza adds. With 0.1 fWAR, the team’s outfield finished 29th in the majors in that department last season, and its best regular – Adam Jones, who was below average in his own right – is now a free agent.

Maybe we might not have to add equal money to make a Myers/Cobb switch. I get your point thinking you like Myers better than Cobb. IMO, I think (especially in Balsleyland) Cobb could be overly above average for SD. Conversely, I think Myers would be very good as well in BAL. Maybe we even send a mid level prospect and SD does not send any money. Could be a win/win for both teams.

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2018, 9:48 am

I am still trying to sort out the Cleveland - Seattle - TB deal. Makes SOME sense as is but hard not to expect each of those teams not still working with some of those pieces. Since money is always at issue (normally for all three of the clubs) and both Seattle and Cleveland have clearly shown the want to shed some salary ... this does a bit to fix that.

Cleveland: gets Santana who they know and like as their 1B / switch hitter for 2 years (20.3 - 20.8 and a 0.5 buyout = +41.6MM) but get from Seattle cash (-2-4 = -6MM) for a net plus of 35.6MM. They dump Encarnacion (21,7 + 5 buyout = +26.7) ... net up 8.4MM but down about $8.4MM in 2019 then up in 2020 about $16.8MM. Whew! takes pressure off payroll in 2019 .. lowers need to tie a bad contract to Kluber / Kipnis plus they added Bauers for 1B/DH potentially allowing them to move Alonso who is more expensive. Price was taking on some 2020 money (which will be covered with Kipnis a FA) and a Comp Pick to Seattle.

Seattle: the deal ends up saving them with 2019 going UP about $3.4MM but 2020 going down about $17.3MM plus they get the Comp Pick from Cleveland. (note again clearing longer deals for shorter deals).

So, from this part of the trade .... I would guess Encarnacion is still being marketed, Alonso is being marketed, and Bauer / Kluber may be not be hindered by the linking the bad contract. So more moves may make this even better for both clubs ... OK for now.

Then there is TB basically they got Diaz (who I like and has one of the best exit velocities in MLB) but is about 27 ... basically a marginal defense 3B / LF with excellent line drive / OBP skills. TB has a premier 3B in Duffy for 2 years. Maybe Diaz goes DH. To get him (and a non prospect RP) they gave up Jake Bauers (highly touted prospect) and $5MM to Seattle (who in turn gave to Cleveland). I guess TB could hold ... sign Cruz for DH since they are apparently willing to spend and sit only around $50MM payroll. On the other hand they could deal for that RHH power bat t0 avoid the length (and dollars) Cruz may demand using Diaz or Duffy as trade bait. Trade for Encarnacion (maybe but that was probably discussed in the 3-way and failed). Enter the Padres: Myers - Renfroe could come into play for 2 years of Duffy at 3B?

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 10:04 am

Duffy could also be the stop gap for SS until Tatis arrives, played a majority of his MiL time at SS for both TAM and SFG. Plus TAM barely finished out of WC spot #2 last season, and with signing of Morton I am sure they think they can get that spot this year with SEA stepping back and OAK needing to sign an entire starting rotation again. IF we could get Duffy, do they back fill Diaz into 3B for them or do they have someone else that can fill that hole?

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2018, 11:07 am

For TB it is probably Duffy or Diaz for 3B ... hard so make a call on which way they flop with both. I guess could go with Diaz at 1B/DH (Choi is in the other) but that seems "light" for a team that can clearly see a path to the playoffs in 2019. Their OF is "nice" with Pham / Kiermaier / Meadows but again not compelling. If they could go with either Diaz or Duffy at 3B and use the other to "upgrade" over Meadows or Choi or just get a more impactful DH ... probably need to.

Dealing Duffy would make some sense (if they really like Diaz) since Duffy has only 2 years control .... should be only making about $3MM ... and should yield the best return piece.

Another team / situation that is just not clear on strategy. They are not going to take on money unless it is for a FA like Cruz. So if the Padres wanted lets say Duffy ... and TB wanted RHH power ... Renfroe or Reyes might work since the DH option for Reyes is wide open. Alternatively the could deal for Encarnacion for 1 year at have the money for that ... using Duffy to Seattle (and saving Seattle even more money).

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 12:00 pm

So listening to MLB Radio on XM, and they were saying the BOS is in need of lower cost bullpen arms since they are blowing away the luxury tax and losing a couple of arms from last season. Do they have a AAA or bench guy that could be our 3B? Holt only has 1 year of control so would not be my first choice. But would Yates and/or Stammen be able to pry a 2-3 year 3B option for SD?

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 12:14 pm

Ian Kinsler, really? Is he capable of 3B? Or is Urias hurt more than thought? Or does Kinsler play 2B and Urias goes to 3B?

 

Padres To Sign Ian Kinsler

By Steve Adams | December 14, 2018 at 2:11pm CDT

The Padres are in agreement with free-agent second baseman Ian Kinsler on a two-year contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The agreement, which is pending a physical, will guarantee Kinsler a total of $8MM. There’s also a club option for a third season on the deal. Kinsler is represented by the BBI Sports Group.

More to come.