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Offseason Thread
#141 · November 19, 2018, 6:39 pm
I thought the return in the Paxton deal was light. First reaction was "That's it?" Not a big Sheffield fan, so might be bias. If they had gotten Whitley plus instead i would not have the same reaction.
A J could have beat the offer with Paddack and a couple prospects in the back half of the Pads top fifty and not missed a beat. Guess he is focused on longer term as suggested and not two or less (Gray rumor is bs).
Thor, Kluber, Greinke, Duffy (I think highest chance) fit the bill. Trade for Greinke and hire Carlos Quentin as assistant hitting coach. What could go wrong?
#142 · November 19, 2018, 10:42 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 19, 2018, 5:04 pmMight be a hint on the cost of deals for top talent. NYY just dealt for Paxton from Seattle .... very good pitcher with injury history, only 2 years control, but a reasonable arb estimate for this year at $9MM. The had to give up Sheffield a near ML ready pitcher (NYY #1 and MLB #31 / #4 LHP) and two filler types.
Sort of like giving up Paddack (MLB #35) plus two fillers for Paxton ... maybe that makes sense for a contender but not for a pretender over the next two seasons.
Totally makes sense for Yankees; 100+ wins trying to catch Boston. Need an elite guy. Sheffield's MLB.com writeup pegs him as a "#3 SP" (this is likely Paddack's ceiling too). Paxton when healthy to me (live in WA; see a lot of the Mariners) looks like a legit #1. And really makes sense for M's too in their specific situations. They get 2 SP's for 6 years vs 1 for 2 yrs.
Interesting to call the other 2 guys "fillers"... they would be in our system in the sense that they would be outside our Top 30. In Seattle's formerly worst system in MLB, they slotted in at #9 & #14. Doesn't make them any better prospects, but they're not really "filler": Swanson is MLB ready, was #22 in NYY good (maybe #10 range) system, and IMO proximity to MLB and better FB makes him a better prospect than Avila, worse than Nix. But his age would push him out of our top 30. Thompson-Williams 2018 looks a lot like Olivares 2017. The main point is: in OUR system guys like this correctly are "filler", b/c they can't all make it, let alone make a difference, but they're still decent prospects.... which is my argument for doing some quantity out for quality in trade/s!
#143 · November 20, 2018, 9:56 am
After Paxton trade looking at M's 40-man since they are dealing. Some of our chips like Franmil Reyes & C depth have to have them drooling... but when you look it is a BAD match. They are dealing 1-2 year control guys for more youth/control to balance out their older & expensive roster. Not what Pads are looking for.
Hard to see a scenario that works, but here's an an "out-of the-box" one:
Padres get: Jean Segura, Felix Hernandez, significant $$ in 2019 (offset Felix' salary)
Mariners get: Reyes or Renfroe, Clay Richard or Robbie Erlin, Javy Guerra, choice: Gabe Arias or Owen Miller
Mariners need OF/DH power to replace Nelson Cruz. Reyes probably ideal for them = the key piece. SS "of future" Arias/Miller in top 5-10 range of M's system. Defense/Offense combo of Guerra/Miller is intriguing. Guerra has an option left, can be utility or more likely AAA depth. Exchanging an iconic player in last year who is at best a #5 SP now for a 1-2 year SP and massive $ savings. Some of which would have to go to a FA SS.
Segura solves SS & 3B of present becomes Tatis, while remaining SS of future, allowing time for Hudson Potts to grow into 3B down road. $$ back key to Pads. Get young SP's exposed to Hall of Famer; maybe Balsley/Hedges help him figure out how to prolong career. Pads done, except just enough room in budgt for... Syndergaard 🙂
Trading King Felix might be off limits (unless HE wanted it), but who knows?
#144 · November 20, 2018, 11:00 am
Clearly Seattle is a player in the trade market and despite avoiding the rebuild narrative .... losing Cruz and trading Zunino and Paxton plus a weak farm system sure looks like a rebuild strategy. On the other hand, don't think Seattle is short on money (albeit a bit bloated payroll).
Of all their trade chips ... Segura probably would be the hardest to pry away given he is a SS and only 28 under a reasonable contract for the next 4 years at $14.9MM plus an additional option year. Fits the profile of the guy they keep in a rebuild scenario unless OVERWHELMED. Considering he is "established ML" quality .... not going to move for just one elite prospect plus mid-range bodies plus they have the luxury of waiting out the market to get overwhelmed.
Agree that they will focus on clearing out the 1 -2 types first. Not sure if they are willing to deal Hernandez (who would not get much in return and they would have to eat a lot of his $28MM contract and he is a FA after the season. PR-wise, they may be better off keeping him around than any return value.
Side note: Richard / Guerra have no trade value and Arias / Miller as prospects in A ball have some but not any significant return level until the establish their prospect credit. Erlin has more to a team that needs a LHRP (Houston calling?) but still not a ML return player of any consequence. So, down to the trade value of Renfroe / Reyes. If the Padres are willing to deal them ... and the Padres are near the bottom offensively in MLB and neither are plus fielders ... doubt other teams are going to give a major return.
#145 · November 20, 2018, 11:16 am
12:55pm: Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports (via Twitter) that the Red Sox will send minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to San Diego in exchange for Brewer.
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Oddly like this deal ... Quiroz is not going to be a big prospect but may be more useful than Brewer to the Padres over the next couple of years. This move opens a 40 man roster slot.
On the surface, Quiroz appears to be zip as a soon to be 27 minor league INF BUT he is a guy that prior to 2018 spent his career in the Mexican leagues. Not a good selling point. However in 2018 Boston signed him and placed him in AA where he hit 299/413/598 (104 PA) and then in the AZ Fall League 267/452/511 (62 PA). So some skills (note the OBP).
At BEST a reserve middle INF (can play SS) and value in AAA as a SS insurance policy. Ton of control. Should make it less risky in moving Pirela, Spangenberg, and/or Villanueva when they now have Garcia / Quiroz as middle INF insurance for back-up roles.
Roll the dice but just maybe Preller scored a useful return.
#146 · November 20, 2018, 11:31 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2018, 11:16 am12:55pm: Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports (via Twitter) that the Red Sox will send minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to San Diego in exchange for Brewer.
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Oddly like this deal ... Quiroz is not going to be a big prospect but may be more useful than Brewer to the Padres over the next couple of years. This move opens a 40 man roster slot.
On the surface, Quiroz appears to be zip as a soon to be 27 minor league INF BUT he is a guy that prior to 2018 spent his career in the Mexican leagues. Not a good selling point. However in 2018 Boston signed him and placed him in AA where he hit 299/413/598 (104 PA) and then in the AZ Fall League 267/452/511 (62 PA). So some skills (note the OBP).
At BEST a reserve middle INF (can play SS) and value in AAA as a SS insurance policy. Ton of control. Should make it less risky in moving Pirela, Spangenberg, and/or Villanueva when they now have Garcia / Quiroz as middle INF insurance for back-up roles.
Roll the dice but just maybe Preller scored a useful return.
Useful high minors at least org piece for a guy who was destined to go off roster. Literally something for nothing.
#147 · November 20, 2018, 1:09 pm
The Padres are in agreement on a trade that’ll send right-hander Walker Lockett to the Indians, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports (via Twitter). In exchange, San Diego will receive a minor league pitcher who doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the 40-man roster.
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Two down and more to come.
Bit surprised Cleveland thought enough of Lockett to deal for him (albeit likely for not much) ... suggests that some other teams might have been interested and would have claimed him if put on waivers ... Cleveland has low priority in the claims (note may be the same thinking with Boston and Brewer).
Second thought is if this is the deal today ... likely a bigger deal (e.g. Renfroe) is not happening ... for now.
#148 · November 20, 2018, 1:12 pm
Some twitter reports (Acee I think) suggest that the Padres are "discussing" selling Villanueva to a Japanese team.
Given the current 3B situation a small surprise but in this era of versatility for part-time / bench players ... not good for Villanueva who is basically a 3B who just hits LHP ... too specialized!
Could be good news for Ty France.
#149 · November 20, 2018, 1:30 pm
Right-hander Walker Lockett traded to Cleveland for right-hander Ignacio Feliz
Lockett was always a likely casualty of the roster crunch, and the Padres were pleased with their return for the 24-year-old right-hander. Feliz made 10 starts for the Indians in the Arizona Rookie League and posted a 3.00 ERA. Like Quiroz, the 19-year-old doesn't need to be added to the 40-man roster.
#150 · November 20, 2018, 1:36 pm
from Fangraphs last summer:
Cleveland has another arm of note in the AZL, 6-foot-1, 18-year-old Dominican righty Ignacio Feliz. He’s one of the best on-mound athletes I’ve seen in the AZL and his arm works well. He sits only 88-92 but that should tick up as he matures physically. His fastball has natural cut, and at times, he throws what looks like a true cutter in the 84-87 range. He also has a 12-to-6 curveball that flashes plus.
Feliz could develop in a number of different ways. Cleveland could make a concerted effort to alter his release so Feliz is more behind the ball, which would probably play better with his curveballs. Alternatively, they might nurture his natural proclivity for cut and see what happens. Either way, this is an exciting athlete with workable stuff who doesn’t turn 19 until the end of October.