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#121 · November 9, 2018, 2:45 pm
CINN is NOT going to trade Suarez ... too good / bargain long term price ... both factors critical for small market CINN (don't really care what Preller wants). Don't even think the Padres have the assets that would even make CINN think twice since they seem to want to stop losing sooner than later. Probably will not trade Senzel unless they extend Gennett (who just changed agents so?) since he is a FA after the season (chance they trade Gennett).
CUBS is NOT going to trade Bryant ... no one will pay the asking price (although good Hot Stove material) and more so the Padres don't have anything close to entice the Cubs who will want some elite return to get them back to the playoffs.
Other than Tatis / Gore ... the Padres have excellent PROSPECTS (better than most) but not so great as to get teams to give up top proven talent unless the player is under short control or carries an unwieldy contract. Does not help that the Padre prospects have not proven successful in AAA so they carry a high risk factor.
Of the candidates being bandied about .... Riley (from Atlanta) as a AAA prospect is the most likely add since Atlanta could potentially benefit from an OF or RP. Suarez / Bryant: 0.0001%; Senzel: 1%; Franco 5%.
I will stick with Villanueva / Spangenberg as the platoon .... for now.
#122 · November 10, 2018, 4:30 am
Matt Snyder has the Padres 18th in his “way too early power rankings”.
#123 · November 10, 2018, 12:06 pm
Sounding as thought the Padres want to make at least one major acquisition (FA or trade) this winter as part of the baseline move to contending in 2020 (something Fowler seems focused on).
Seems they have the money ($25-35MM) for the right add and although could argue a variety of needs .... I am leaning toward a top of the rotation SP since not seeing one coming from the prospects by 2020 plus the other four SP slots are still up in the air with unproven potential.
They COULD go the FA route for Corbin or Keuchel ... not sure any of the other FA quality as top of the rotation.
Saw some comments about Cleveland and dealing Kluber. Elite pitcher to be sure and with three years control $17MM then club options for $17.5MM and $18MM ... bargain price for his quality with the guarantee if anything goes wrong with him his club option can be declined and that future money saved. Put that together and that would take a major package of prospects. However, as a wrinkle ... APPARENTLY Cleveland is serious about shedding payroll and would love to get Kipnis ($14.7MM then a FA) or Encarnacion ($21.7MM then a FA) off the payroll. To that end, would Cleveland take a lesser package of prospects for a bundle of Kluber and one of them? Would that make sense for the Padres?
Hypothetically, if they took Kipnis and just released him the would in effect be paying Kluber about $22-23MM AAV ... still a bargain for a top of the rotation arm. More likely they would try to fit Kipnis (2B and some OF) into a super utility player and maybe see if he can handle some 3B. Still would have to give some decent prospects but instead of 4 maybe only 2 (or 4 lesser). I suppose if the same logic was used with Encarnacion Kluber's price would go up to about $25MM AAV but should cost even less in terms of prospects. Encarnacion does not fit SD at all so Kipnis is the better route unless Preller can work a second deal where he still pays Encarnacion's contract and gets a prospect back (sort of an offset to what is given for Kluber).
Padres may be in one of the better positions to pull this kind of deal since adding $30-40MM for 2019 "fits" and then in 2020 back to Kluber's $17.5. IF Cleveland really wants to clear the books .... SD may be the best trade partner. SD is in that someone unique slot of having the money and the desire to contend in the 2nd and 3rd year of the Kluber deal.
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Brian Connelly
#124 · November 10, 2018, 6:01 pm
LOVE the idea of "buying" Kluber with Kipnis esp (ironically both would be Pads property!)... deals like this possibility are a really good argument for NOTTTTT spending over 7 MM on freaking Phil Hughes in 2019 just to get a 2nd round draft pick (when we had 2 1st rounders) and the increase in draft $$$/flexibility... even if you hit a jackpot on someone their contribution comes in 4 years at best.
We are a good match with the Indians. Don't they need a RH OF?
#125 · November 11, 2018, 7:35 am
Cleveland actually needs 3 upgrades in the OF if they want to contend ... plus some RP help.
Have to admit I am perplexed by the rumored / speculated Cleveland strategy of selling their top of the rotation arms (if true) ... unless their financial situation is more dire than we know.
They are are AL Central champs who should be the favorites to repeat with just a little add or two in the OF. However, seem a bit short of going deep in the playoffs. IF they could financially hold through 2019 (they should be somewhere around $150MM) they could get financial relief for 2020 by declining options on Encarnacion, Kipnis, Alonso, Gomes, and Martin saving about $55MM. So pushing the payroll cuts to 2019 .... and using their better players (Kluber, Carrasco) must suggest the financial issue is now. Trade Kluber and Carrasco then decline the options and Cleveland would be sitting about where SD is payroll-wise.
Could be 2019 is the last hurrah for the Indians for some time as they clear out everyone in 2020 except Ramirez and Lindor but without a stacked farm system. Given that backdrop ... Cleveland may be enticed by some volume of prospects (with legit potential) and not insist on a top prospect. Renfroe and/or Reyes makes sense as the will need OF/DH in 2020, Naylor for 1B, and always pitching (Padres could go a lot of ways). So, do the parts fit for a deal ... yes.
IF the Padres want a blockbuster move ... this would fit.
#126 · November 11, 2018, 10:06 am
What is everyone's take on Buddy Reed?
He's progressing nicely up through the system, 23 years old, ear marked for El Paso this spring?
He's strong defensively, fast on the bases, has some pop. Is he selective enough? Is he more Reyes? Or more Margot?
This has to be Manny's last shot at locking down the CF job. If he is faltering by mid season, and Reed, continues his upward climb, do we see him in SD after the break?
#127 · November 11, 2018, 10:06 am
And yes to Kluber! At the money he's making? No brainer. Guess it just depends on what Cleveland wants in return.
#128 · November 11, 2018, 3:58 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on November 11, 2018, 10:06 amWhat is everyone's take on Buddy Reed?
He's progressing nicely up through the system, 23 years old, ear marked for El Paso this spring?
He's strong defensively, fast on the bases, has some pop. Is he selective enough? Is he more Reyes? Or more Margot?
This has to be Manny's last shot at locking down the CF job. If he is faltering by mid season, and Reed, continues his upward climb, do we see him in SD after the break?
It is all about the development of his bat because his other skills are high quality ML levels. Has the POTENTIAL to exceed Margot and Reyes as an all around player IF he hits. Sounds as though he is very coachable ... so there should be some optimism ... something I would not have said a year ago after a mediocre FW season.
As for 2019, I would expect him to start in AA ...had very little time there in 2018 and it was not pretty late and don't consider the good AFL enough to bypass that level. Padres will probably not rush him up until they are really comfortable with his bat. More likely the starts 2020 in AAA and IF he produces he gets a mid-season call up in 2020 ... not sooner.
Looks like the type who will make the ML on his speed / defense alone ... the bat will tell if he is a 4th OF or a starter on a second division team or a be worthy of a starter on a contender. Too early to tell but enough to get him a long leash in the system.
Margot likely gets a full run in 2019 as the #1 CF (no good alternative) and at 24ish still has development time after a sophomore slump. Probably to start 2020 also ... unless Cordero puts it together.
#129 · November 12, 2018, 10:13 am
QO are accepted or rejected today. Always a low chance of players accepting.
Not likely Keuchel, Corbin, Ryu accept which is good as the extra supply in theory will reduced the asking price on any other SP on the market via FA/trade ... good since the Padres may be looking to FA/trade for a SP.
Kimbrel not going to take the QO ... bad since adding supply there hurts the Padres of getting value for Yates ... not a one vs. one but on a trickle down of closers and need.
Same goes for Grandal ... will hurt the market for either Hedges or Mejia.
The biggest wild card is Pollack who because of his injury history and so-so 2018 ... he MIGHT accept which would be good for the Padres in their attempts to market excess OF.
#130 · November 12, 2018, 12:01 pm
I know it's only Nov 12th but I'm ready for some Padres Hot Stove action!
Since we think we will be very active it's really all we have to look forward too for awhile.