Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 11:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 8:09 am

Small sample sizes, hot streaks / cold spells … all make player projections a hazardous business … and just confuse we fans.

Consider Kim … everyone was cheering the evolution of Kim offensively with a really strong mid-season … hit, defense, showed speed.

And then if you look at Bogearts splits for the season, the same thing applies. Had a hot March/April, horrible May, June and July close to his career averages, a cold August, and is starting September hot again. When the year comes to an end, he will be very close to his career numbers. And we have seen many times, where the first year in a big contract, and new team are duds, see Seager and TEX, and look what he is doing this season.

Then, with Kim in mind, and Bogaerts comments about defensive performance, I went and looked at the 2023 stats for 1B. Bogaerts would be top 15 in HRs, top 5 in BA, top 15 in SLG, and that is with two major slumps. Sure he will never be a HR guy, but his career he has averaged around 85 RBIs, and that would put him in top 10 for 1B this season in MLB.

I could see Kim's FA value around that as Crone, that 7 year $80M range. In reality, that should be an acceptable increase from his current $7M per season for him to stay in SD, and SD being able to shoulder that monies.

Then you could have your INF of Machado, Kim, Crone, Bogaerts for seasons to come. Allowing the younger and cheaper Merrill to either be trade bait for a SP in the same price control area, and/or upgrade CF.

Or if Kim is up for it, move Kim to CF and leave the young guy Merrill in his natural position, SS. Now you have improved CF offensively, SS defensively over Bogaerts(? or no loss in defense) , and 1B offensively, and moves Crone back to his natural position of 2B and that comfort level improves his numbers offensively.

Grisham should still fetch something in trade, nothing in someones top 15, but Preller is good at swiping a good lotto ticket from others systems. And Grishams salary increases help offset the raise to Kim. Azocar should be a fine back up/platoon possibility for Merrill.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2023, 11:39 am

My guess is the #1 or #2 Catcher role is still Nola's to lose.

"If" they have figured out his vision issue Spring Training will probably decide if he starts the season in SD.

As far as Kim is considered i think we all would like to keep him....but there are so many factors involved...starting with our need for pitching...SP and Bullpen.

Plus Merrill being close.

My guess,and that's all it is,is that any $$ we spend will be for arms and Kim is either traded or goes to free agency after 24' and Merrill takes over at SS with Xander moving to 1b and Crone back to 2b.

Time to play the prospects.

The caveat to all of this is Seidler.Am I the only one that thinks maybe he has health issues that are precipitating him spending whatever it takes to win a WS while he's still around?

I've been hesitant to suggest this but it would explain some things.

If this is truly the case(and I pray it is not),the skies the limit on what we could do(spend) the next couple years.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 12:50 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2023, 11:39 am

My guess is the #1 or #2 Catcher role is still Nola's to lose.

"If" they have figured out his vision issue Spring Training will probably decide if he starts the season in SD.

As far as Kim is considered i think we all would like to keep him....but there are so many factors involved...starting with our need for pitching...SP and Bullpen.

Plus Merrill being close.

My guess,and that's all it is,is that any $$ we spend will be for arms and Kim is either traded or goes to free agency after 24' and Merrill takes over at SS with Xander moving to 1b and Crone back to 2b.

Time to play the prospects.

The caveat to all of this is Seidler.Am I the only one that thinks maybe he has health issues that are precipitating him spending whatever it takes to win a WS while he's still around?

I've been hesitant to suggest this but it would explain some things.

If this is truly the case(and I pray it is not),the skies the limit on what we could do(spend) the next couple years.

 

I have been concerned about the same issue with Siedler for some time … just was reluctant to go that route and hope that is not the case.

Siedler may be OK with spending but also is a smart guy … and will he be impacted by the poor results of his spending leading him to conclude just spending more is not the answer … good money after bad? Or maybe he believes in his past spending and does not think more major spending is necessary … just “tinkering” on the edges.

We will know only when we know.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 1:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 11:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 8:09 am

Small sample sizes, hot streaks / cold spells … all make player projections a hazardous business … and just confuse we fans.

Consider Kim … everyone was cheering the evolution of Kim offensively with a really strong mid-season … hit, defense, showed speed.

And then if you look at Bogearts splits for the season, the same thing applies. Had a hot March/April, horrible May, June and July close to his career averages, a cold August, and is starting September hot again. When the year comes to an end, he will be very close to his career numbers. And we have seen many times, where the first year in a big contract, and new team are duds, see Seager and TEX, and look what he is doing this season.

Then, with Kim in mind, and Bogaerts comments about defensive performance, I went and looked at the 2023 stats for 1B. Bogaerts would be top 15 in HRs, top 5 in BA, top 15 in SLG, and that is with two major slumps. Sure he will never be a HR guy, but his career he has averaged around 85 RBIs, and that would put him in top 10 for 1B this season in MLB.

I could see Kim's FA value around that as Crone, that 7 year $80M range. In reality, that should be an acceptable increase from his current $7M per season for him to stay in SD, and SD being able to shoulder that monies.

Then you could have your INF of Machado, Kim, Crone, Bogaerts for seasons to come. Allowing the younger and cheaper Merrill to either be trade bait for a SP in the same price control area, and/or upgrade CF.

Or if Kim is up for it, move Kim to CF and leave the young guy Merrill in his natural position, SS. Now you have improved CF offensively, SS defensively over Bogaerts(? or no loss in defense) , and 1B offensively, and moves Crone back to his natural position of 2B and that comfort level improves his numbers offensively.

Grisham should still fetch something in trade, nothing in someones top 15, but Preller is good at swiping a good lotto ticket from others systems. And Grishams salary increases help offset the raise to Kim. Azocar should be a fine back up/platoon possibility for Merrill.

I guess more position shifts are possible … seems Preller (and maybe the analytics folks) are not concerned about any negative impacts of changing positions … worked with Tatis to RF but not so much with Cronenworth … and maybe my view the destruction of Wil Myers with bouncing around from RF to 1B - CF - 3B - LF  … but never a move without potential negative results.

As I recall when they signed Bogaerts he was adamant he was coming as the SS and clearly was not willing to play another position … no reason to think he has change. Plus not sure Preller … who signed him as a SS … will be willing to admit that he is not a SS (at least after one Padre season). On the flip side, seemed as though Preller and the front office where planning on Tatis in the OF (probably CF) quickly after the showed up in the ML … they engineered a scenario that  made that happen.

So, Kim to CF is probably more likely than Kim at SS and Bogaerts to 1B. I also have to wonder why the Padres apparently have not approached Kim on extension talks given a FA after 2024 BUT last winter extended Cronenworth who would not have been a FA until after 2025 plus was older and played a less demanding position at 2B. Is Preller viewing Kim in a lesser light than us? One report suggested that Preller was not that interested in Kim coming out of Korea and was “convinced” to sign him.

Just to muddle this more, a rumor that moving on from Grisham is appearing more likely but the CF coverage goes to Tatis (I would not do it BUT that is where Preller wanted him for a few years … and guessing Preller is stubborn on what he believes in). If so, has a different impact on Kim’s future … creates a need for a RF … may impact the retention of Soto.

Need a few dominoes to fall to get the drift of how Preller will work … as of know way too many scenarios with the first move having a ripple effect on so many others.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2023, 2:05 pm

I don't think it's about Xander "not being a SS" as much as it is still a position of depth and how do you get the best 8 on the field.

The team already moved their mega star to RF to accommodate him and really also moved Crone to 1b to accommodate him.

But now we have our #1 prospect almost ready as well.

Maybe he will still have an issue moving....or maybe he will be willing in order to win more games/make the playoffs.

We just don't know what promises or handshake agreements they had at signing.

But you're probably right....I've said all along I still see Merrill traded for a Starting pitcher.Or,they' have already had him playing different positions in the minors so if they keep him he probably will play somewhere other than SS.

I just think personally that's not the best thing for winning games.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 3:04 pm

Wonder how much the prospects in SA (and the Padres’ projection of them) shades the trade / signing strategy. SA has the rapidly ascending pitching and hitting prospects … if nothing else given existing big contracts … does that direct them toward short term adds and does that influence who they may be willing to move (and when)?

The fact that Soto and Kim are FA after 2024 and will leave with no return (Comp picks for a team with multiple luxury tax violations is way down the draft). Do they trade one or both … clear about $37MM to deploy on a multiple short term adds to make a more complete roster while adding some additional prospect capital?

Merrill … Pauley … Marsee … Martorella … Castanon … Salas … who will be making impact on the Padres in 2025? That group hits C - 1B - DH - INF - OF.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 3:16 pm

I am going to go out on a ledge and state that the WBC, Bogaerts 1st year contract, and Tatis coming off a season long injury/suspension had a lot more affect than maybe thought.

So with that being said, with a couple of smart bench signings, and signing/finding a #1 SP I think we bounce back next season.

I like the idea of bringing back Profar and Alfaro I think they went a long ways towards toughness/clutch in those close games. I think Cooper or Batten seem like decent bench pieces as well.

So the following position players should be very good with no WBC, and Bogaerts and Tatis feeling normal again. Should be a good blend of defense and offensive production.

1. Kim - SS, 2. Profar - LF, 3. Machado - 3B, 4. Soto - DH, 5 Tatis - RF, 6. Bogaerts - 1B, 7. Crone - 2B, 8. Campusano - C, 9. Grisham - CF. #10. Alfaro, 11. Batten, 12. Azocar, 13. Batten (over Cooper for money and multi postions. And dont forget that Nola came up as an INF, and if his vision is fixed and his bat is back, could be a nice bench piece that can probably all INF and C.

SP - #1 - TBD, #2 - Musgrove, #3 Darvish, #4 Wacha, #5 TBD, #6 probably needs to be a inexpensive person already on SD roster, see Alvila, Morejon, Waldron, Otto, maybe Groome?

Resign of Lugo would be nice depending on price tag. Leaving finding a #1, not Ohtani next season

BP - Suarez, Cosgrove, Hill, Barlow, Garcia, Martinez, Carlton, Wislon. There will be some bounce back bargain RP available as well.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 3:34 pm

Agree at the core that the WBC, long layoff of Tatis, team change for Bogaerts lead to a lot of under performance. Might even extend that to the early season for Soto.

So, a very good chance that group becomes what we expected at the beginning of the season … and likely Preller sees it the same way and basically stands pat encouraged by the emergence of Campusano … then tinker on the bench. Yeh, see a re-sign of Profar as he “super utility” catalyst. Sort of the same thought going into 2023 and a power offense will carry the pitching even with good (but not elite) SP/RP.

Maybe that goes with the thought of re-signing Wacha and Lugo on decent 2 year deals and add a “similar” SP to START the season … then if need go bigger with a trade deadline move even if it is for a “rental” only. Maybe by mid-season Snelling (or similar) becomes a viable option.

Side: just don’t see a #1 SP on the market (trade or FA) for 2024 UNLESS they go all in on Yamamoto out of Japan.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 3:52 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 3:34 pm

Agree at the core that the WBC, long layoff of Tatis, team change for Bogaerts lead to a lot of under performance. Might even extend that to the early season for Soto.

Side: just don’t see a #1 SP on the market (trade or FA) for 2024 UNLESS they go all in on Yamamoto out of Japan.

Yes, I would put Soto, Machado, Darvish, and a couple of others that participated in the WBC as some concern for the start of the season and the lack of "normalcy" for the last three offseason, to roll in the thoughts of Jeremy as well.

I agree with your assessment of the difficulty of finding a number. And then would even have concerns with Yamamoto being a number one, first year out of Japan, and the difference in competition levels as well.

There is always a trade that arises that we dont see; however barring that, I think that SD is going to have to look at the offense carrying quite a few more games next season than they did this season.