Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2023, 10:59 am

So anyone want to guess what Bellinger gets? Is he a $200 million + guy?

Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2023, 11:24 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2023, 10:59 am

So anyone want to guess what Bellinger gets? Is he a $200 million + guy?

Not in my book, but yes someone will give $225M for 10 years.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2023, 12:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 9:45 am

Just wild thinking but if Kim and Lee are great friends … and Boras is a calculation as many suspect … what if Lee opts to sign with a team (big money) that has more money to deploy next winter and a need for a SS/2B. That sets up a big money day for Kim as they unite in city X.

Since (apparently) the Padres have made no attempt to extend Kim, Kim (his agent) read the same stuff we do on payroll limitations gong forward … might Kim’s side recommend Lee sign elsewhere since Kim may not be a Padres after 2024 (or may still get traded this winter). Indeed signing Lee may just insure Kim does not return in 2025 as a Padre.

Could make the case that if Kim wants to stay in SD and get his big money contract … Lee as his good friend would want to sign his big money contract elsewhere so money left for Kim in SD?

Can really spin this a lot of ways … but in the end it is maximizing the money for the players.

Marlins are one such team.

They need a CF and a SS at the moment.

Maybe Lee signs there and we trade Kim to Miami?

I'd rather just sign Lee and keep them both but.....5/$95....if true...is a lot.

What's Kim gonna want if Lee gets that?

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 1:26 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2023, 12:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 9:45 am

Just wild thinking but if Kim and Lee are great friends … and Boras is a calculation as many suspect … what if Lee opts to sign with a team (big money) that has more money to deploy next winter and a need for a SS/2B. That sets up a big money day for Kim as they unite in city X.

Since (apparently) the Padres have made no attempt to extend Kim, Kim (his agent) read the same stuff we do on payroll limitations gong forward … might Kim’s side recommend Lee sign elsewhere since Kim may not be a Padres after 2024 (or may still get traded this winter). Indeed signing Lee may just insure Kim does not return in 2025 as a Padre.

Could make the case that if Kim wants to stay in SD and get his big money contract … Lee as his good friend would want to sign his big money contract elsewhere so money left for Kim in SD?

Can really spin this a lot of ways … but in the end it is maximizing the money for the players.

Marlins are one such team.

They need a CF and a SS at the moment.

Maybe Lee signs there and we trade Kim to Miami?

I'd rather just sign Lee and keep them both but.....5/$95....if true...is a lot.

What's Kim gonna want if Lee gets that?

 

 

 

Not out of the question since MIA does have some good SP that might be available … Padres do want another SP.

Fans would not like it but if they can’t move Cronenworth … he can move back to 2B and might be easier to get a low cost serviceable 1B until one of the internal options emerge. At some point Merrill is the SS of the future and maybe Bogaerts does go to 1B (actually that could be in 2024).

Do agree that if Lee is in the 5 year / $90MM zone … Kim will be that and more as a proven SS in the ML. No way the Padres will (in my mind) pay either at an $18MM AAV level when on the cusp is Merrill, Marsee, Pauley, and Martorella and pushing the luxury tax.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2023, 1:56 pm

Unfortunately the Marlins found out last year how important SP depth is.

The HAD a bunch of young controllable pitching and then 3 of them got hurt.

They might still trade one for a guy like Kim but for only one year I'm not so sure.

Their top 3 prospects out side their major league roster are all starting pitchers...but Max Meyer had TJ and won't be ready for '24 and the other two are 18-19 years old and in A ball.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2023, 2:22 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2023, 1:56 pm

Unfortunately the Marlins found out last year how important SP depth is.

The HAD a bunch of young controllable pitching and then 3 of them got hurt.

They might still trade one for a guy like Kim but for only one year I'm not so sure.

Their top 3 prospects out side their major league roster are all starting pitchers...but Max Meyer had TJ and won't be ready for '24 and the other two are 18-19 years old and in A ball.

I have seen a rumor that MIA is still willing to trade a SP for a SS. That same rumor said they plan to keep Chisholm in CF this year, so Kim would work for MIA.

And although he is a fan favorite, Bogaerts was fine at SS, Crone will be fine at 2B, and Kim has more value, and Merrill should be ready for possibly the 2nd half. So you can keep Bogaerts and Crone happy (both under long term contracts), and keep them both at their normal positions. And some combination of Carpenter, Profar, Duvall, and/or Cooper would work at 1B.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 2:50 pm

Depending on the Padres’ short and long term plans … Kim for the TJ victim Meyer might just appeal to Preller (Meyer still is considered a top prospect SP or closer) while clear $7MM and avoiding another FA issue in the offseason with a player that they may not resign.

Meyers for the future and use the $7MM with the other money available to reshape the 2024 roster. Not optimum BUT maybe if the other parts fall into place.

Locked in on Machado, Bogaerts, and Cronenworth with a Top 10 prospect (at league minimum for 3 years and 6 years control) in Merrill really does put Kim on the bubble if he will need a 6 year / $100MM+ extension to cover what Merrill will provide.

I would not be on a Kim trade … but also would not dismiss it out of hand.

Should add Max Meyer had his TJ in August, 2022 so by ST he will have 18 months recovery time and should be ready to pitch … maybe not at the ML level on opening day but maybe mid-season if he has been already rehabbing for 6+ months. He was a Top 100 prospect so some rankings.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 3:34 pm

OK, the Ohtani contract is blowing my financial mind … just brilliant from Ohtani’s perspective and the LAD perspective.

Current report is that Ohtani annually for 10 years will defer $68MM out of the $70MM and start taking the deferred $68MM over the following 10 years.

Why brilliant for Ohtani taking only $2MM annually for the first 10 years:

1. Ohtani while playing will earn a massive amount of money from advertising / merchandising in both the US and Japan … so he will not be short of money.

2. (Time to think taxes … California is a high tax state, US for his bracket is a high tax country) so IF in 10 years Ohtani returns to Japan and starts taking the $68MM at the tax rate in Japan he may save MILLIONS in taxes. There are options to set residence in a tax haven country and really really save MILLIONS and MILLIONS. So, a lot of strategies with this deferral to make the AFTER TAX value of this deal a lot larger than if he took the $700MM over the next 10 years.

The LAD AAV drops to $46MM (adjustment for time value of deferred money) and can buy annuities (or just 10 year bonds) for less than $68MM letting the accumulated interest over 10 years make up the difference.

Just brilliant … I LOVE it.

Now will MLB step in “for the good of baseball” and challenge the arraignment? Meets the letter of the rules … but not the spirit.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2023, 4:44 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 3:34 pm

Now will MLB step in “for the good of baseball” and challenge the arraignment? Meets the letter of the rules … but not the spirit.

No, MLB will not step in and do anything. Its LAD, thats were MLB wanted Ohtani to go!!

And its within the rules.