Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 4:07 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 10, 2023, 3:06 pm

I didn't know about the whole deferred money thing lowering the AAV hit. Apparently Edwin Diaz and others have done it to a much smaller extent. It seems kind of ridiculous that the league was reportedly ready to veto a Aaron Judge deal because we added years to get the AAV down, but the Dodgers can knock 20m+ off with deferred money and it's just fine.

The best I can tell the difference is that just adding years still has the club on the hook for the same money so if the added years are a blatant attempt to circumvent the AAV the league steps in. They did not complain about Darvish’s deal to age 41 even though that last year is suspect. If however they ran the contract to his age 50 that would have the league step in. Where they step in or keep out is just judgement. The key is the team will actually pay the contract total.

What is different about the deferral is that the team will not spend the same amount of money. So AAV is reduced to reflect what they will actually pay over the contract. In the Ohtani case he still gets his $700MM but using the financial tools available (probably annuities) the LAD may only pay $450MM out of pocket and through the annuities held by insurance companies the money earns over time to pay out the needed money to Ohtani. The more that is deferred and the longer the deferrals … the less the LAD actually pay … and the AAV drops. Note could be more complicated given all the financial options besides straight annuities and pretty sure strategies about minimizing taxes (especially in CA).

Never knew that wrinkle … bit makes some sense if the objective is financial position of the teams.

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 10, 2023, 7:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 4:07 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 10, 2023, 3:06 pm

I didn't know about the whole deferred money thing lowering the AAV hit. Apparently Edwin Diaz and others have done it to a much smaller extent. It seems kind of ridiculous that the league was reportedly ready to veto a Aaron Judge deal because we added years to get the AAV down, but the Dodgers can knock 20m+ off with deferred money and it's just fine.

The best I can tell the difference is that just adding years still has the club on the hook for the same money so if the added years are a blatant attempt to circumvent the AAV the league steps in. They did not complain about Darvish’s deal to age 41 even though that last year is suspect. If however they ran the contract to his age 50 that would have the league step in. Where they step in or keep out is just judgement. The key is the team will actually pay the contract total.

What is different about the deferral is that the team will not spend the same amount of money. So AAV is reduced to reflect what they will actually pay over the contract. In the Ohtani case he still gets his $700MM but using the financial tools available (probably annuities) the LAD may only pay $450MM out of pocket and through the annuities held by insurance companies the money earns over time to pay out the needed money to Ohtani. The more that is deferred and the longer the deferrals … the less the LAD actually pay … and the AAV drops. Note could be more complicated given all the financial options besides straight annuities and pretty sure strategies about minimizing taxes (especially in CA).

Never knew that wrinkle … bit makes some sense if the objective is financial position of the teams.

It's all fun and games until the economy takes a dump and the annuities become insolvent

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 6:49 am

Dennis Lin is reporting that there is some thinking that Lee may land a deal nearer $90MM (plus posting fee) ... that is a lot more than the original guess at $55MM/5 years ($11MM AAV).

No idea if the additional is based on a deal more than 5 years or higher AAA ... or some combo of both.

Since the Padres would not likely want to take an $18MM AAV ($90MM/5 years) not sure how eager they would want to run the deal out to 8 years to keep the AAV near $11MM ... plus guessing the Lee camp would not be thrilled with that either delaying his FA for 3 years

$90MM/6 ($15MM AAV) ... does that work for the Padres and Lee? AAV seems right for this market ... Lee still gets to next FA at 31. What would that do to a potential extension for Kim (who is already proven)? Greater than $15MM AAV? Can the Padres handle that AAV level for both?

Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2023, 7:33 am

I would imagine that if Lee is getting closer to that $15M per season AAV and up to 6 years, it might be better to pivot and look at Kiermaier. He is projected to get closer to 2 @ $13M per season. I would imagine that if SD went to 3 years at $30M, he could be signed. An AAV of $10M and a LHH would fit into want SD financially needs. Then you could sign Profar, probably around $2-3M, and possibly Duvall around $5-6M.

Both Profar and Duvall can cover LF and 1B. Both Kiermaier and Duvall can cover CF, along with Azocar as well. Plus Tatis can cover CF if needed as well.

With Kiermaier, Profar, and Duvall for $20M combined and have a lot of cover situations, seems better than just Lee.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 11, 2023, 7:35 am

I'm guessing a 3 year deal (13M, 14M, then 15M) with an opt out after both the 1st and 2nd years.  This keeps the cost down for the initial investment and gives both sides a year to evaluate what Lee would mean to a baseball team.   It also gives the Padres a little more money to play with this year, time to see how their young hitters are progressing and possibly find money to extend Kim.

If Lee/Boras is not budging from 18M, then don't think he fits the budget given other needs.  90M would be almost triple what any KBO player has received at posting.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 7:59 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 11, 2023, 7:35 am

I'm guessing a 3 year deal (13M, 14M, then 15M) with an opt out after both the 1st and 2nd years.  This keeps the cost down for the initial investment and gives both sides a year to evaluate what Lee would mean to a baseball team.   It also gives the Padres a little more money to play with this year, time to see how their young hitters are progressing and possibly find money to extend Kim.

If Lee/Boras is not budging from 18M, then don't think he fits the budget given other needs.  90M would be almost triple what any KBO player has received at posting.

Well we know Boras will work the best deal for his client … and usually that is the highest guaranteed money with player opt outs to even get more.

So don’t think he has to take anything less than 5 years (gets FA again at 30) since looking that the AAV will be up there then he may want opt outs but not at the cost of a base guarantee. Put all the performance risk on the team … minimize risk to the player (who may not be as expected in the first few years).

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 8:06 am

Rising tide raises all boats … Ohtani and the other signing have been consistently more than the projections. To that end the current rumors suggest that Yamamoto’s deal may approach $300MM (most were estimating $200MM) not sure if that is more years for a 25 year old or an even higher AAV.  A lot of faith in the scouting of a player with no MLB time.

Good news for Snell, Montgomery, and every decent pitcher down the chain since seems almost every team has pitching high on their priority list.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 11, 2023, 8:35 am

Boras is also the agent for Bellinger, who I believe the Giants are more interested in than Lee.  Giants main competition for Bellinger was the Yankees but they may be more focused on pitching after Soto/Verdugo.  Cubs could try to re-sign but if they really wanted him, think they would have pushed harder before free agency plus the fact that Bellinger likely more of a West Coast guy than Midwest guy.  So, Boras could be using Lee to push the Bellinger price point higher.

Also, Lee has the ear of Kim and although Boras is Lee's agent, Boras still has to do what his client wants to do and I still believe that is to sign with San Diego even if his initial contract will be lesser than what Boras is telling him he could get him with another team.  Speculation could end soon - don't think Lee/Padres are going to extend the drama much beyond this week since Padres need to seek out more pitching if Lee won't sign with them.  Another round of speculation for Padres fans now that Soto is gone.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2023, 9:34 am

Plus don’t forget the “mystery team” involved in every Boras negotiation.

On Bellinger … would think beyond SF and post Ohtani / Soto both the Cubs and TOR have renewed interest for a LHH star with power. Also, heard a rumor that … if they don’t sign Yamamoto the NYM may shift there (not pleased with their offense in 2023 and Cohen has indicated he still is willing to spend … foolishly).

Seems as though Yamamoto may be the next big money piece to drop … setting up a changed dynamic for the other FA / teams … even if not a pitcher.