Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2023, 7:47 am

Has to be a critical decision tree in the Padres' strategy surrounding Soto ... with the extension decision, in my mind, has to be done by around November 1.

I would expect by that time, given the reports of discussions between the Padres and Boras, the Padres will "know" whether the can (or want to) re-sign Soto at this price. Possible Boras makes it clear that they will go to FA unless the Padres pay X ... basically why negotiate down (given Boras' track record that seems the strategy). Is "X" just out of the picture for the Padres?

In part, Soto's 2023 performance supports both sides not compromising. Soto:

Home: 221/385/403 (788) ... just above an "average" hitter

Away: 294/413/585 (978) ... elite hitter

Boras will price Soto as the elite hitter he was in WASH and his Away stats in 2023 ... Padres seeing his PETCO performance will not want to gamble premium money that he will more than average at Home. Stalemate? No extension.

Why make the call by November 1? Padres over the winter do have to build up the team for 2024 ... and they need to be comfortable with the roster / payroll they have. So, as the winter begins the Padres need to know if they want to pursue a trade of Soto (to recoup some going forward assets and avoid a $30MM salary) ... if the call is yes, they may alter their winter pursuits with an "extra" $30MM in play. If no (they are going all in for 2024) the mix is different with less money and a shift in needs.

Other teams are are going to make moves over the winter on their timetable ... so with likely a limited number of buyers of Soto need to make a deal happen before they go another route and whatever return (if it includes a ML piece) may alter the other adds targeted by the Padres. Note that the Padres could use the Boras argument of Soto's Away performance to get a better return than his overall stats would suggest.

(Side: if it were not unethical and probably against a lot of rules, would it not be in Soto/Boras' best financial interest to have the Padres trade Soto to a hitter friendly ballpark to max his stats before FA, and if so would they pay the Padres to trade him? Under the table? ... just a bizarre one off thought).

Quote from WindsorUK on September 10, 2023, 8:49 am

Soto sits just under 40% of his at bats not putting the ball in play. Now I don't know how that compares to other top hitters but if you're batting in the middle of the lineup, surely you're needed to AT LEAST put the ball in play, to get guys moving, right?

One, I hope Preller is gone in about 4 weeks time. And as many believe that just won't happen, then 2, please DO NOT keep Soto here, especially at over $30+ million.

This team is not a championship contender( more likely to get 90 losses than 90 wins)Moves need to be made. Management needs to admit its mistakes and move on. Sure, Soto could turn his numbers around( and hit above .260....) but it certainly doesn’t appear he'll do it in San Diego.

The time to start the rebuild was at the trade deadline. Now that we've missed that mile post, this off season is our next best chance. Please don't miss it.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 11, 2023, 10:59 am

Just throwing out off the wall ideas to shake up this team … and hopefully improve it for 2024.

First, Grisham is a problem to the offense … adding quality CF (at a low cost since need to spend on SP) is not likely.

Second, Cronenworth is having a bad offensive season when at 1B (83 wRC+ in 396 PA) … not close to being good for 1B … but this season as a 2B (123 wRC+ in 123 PA) and has been an All-Star as a 2B with plus defense.

Third, a better chance to add a upgrade at 1B than CF

Fourth, been hearing side comments from Melvin (and others) praising Kim’s defense and his adaption to 2B while suggesting he could be comfortable (and good) in CF. The move to the OF worked for Tatis … CF is (as some believe) is easier to adapt to if the player has the speed.

So, could (should) the Padres move Kim to CF … return Cronenworth to 2B … and work on finding a 1B who provides more offense than Grisham? That may be in house with Cooper / Profar.

Since we are out of the box with this idea … and reports are that the Padres have become really high on Pauley … would they gamble on Pauley at 1B at some point given the threshold is low (being better than Grisham)? INF by trade … so should work defensively.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2023, 6:18 am

Kim might be the best defensive middle infielder in baseball. Tatis made some unbelievable plays, but the consistency wasn't always there on the more regular ones. I don't doubt that he could do it. I just don't see why you would want to move a guy who might be a platinum glove contender at SS or 2B.

If we want to talk about off the wall ideas I think moving Cronenworth in a bad contract swap could make sense. They might be able to pickup someone like Robbie Ray, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Edwin Diaz or Mike Trout on the extreme end with prospects or cash going one way or another to balance things out. They could fill a hole while opening a more natural spot for Merrill when he's ready.

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2023, 7:15 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2023, 6:18 am

Kim might be the best defensive middle infielder in baseball. Tatis made some unbelievable plays, but the consistency wasn't always there on the more regular ones. I don't doubt that he could do it. I just don't see why you would want to move a guy who might be a platinum glove contender at SS or 2B.

If we want to talk about off the wall ideas I think moving Cronenworth in a bad contract swap could make sense. They might be able to pickup someone like Robbie Ray, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Edwin Diaz or Mike Trout on the extreme end with prospects or cash going one way or another to balance things out. They could fill a hole while opening a more natural spot for Merrill when he's ready.

I keep bouncing around on the moving (and not moving) parts on this roster. Not coming up with a scenario that makes me feel comfortable of 2024 and … as important … the future.

Kim is an interesting problem (challenge) given he is a FA after 2024 and given his improved offense coupled with elite defense (assuming he does opt implode in 2024) will command a big, long term contract. However, like it or not, Bogaerts will be the SS going forward for a long time and for big money … Merrill is the young low cost future as a middle INF … Cronenworth is sitting with a (in my mind ill advised) long term deal but he was an All Star plus defensive 2B who may be better served retuning to 2B … would not just write him off after 2023 and being misplaced at 1B.

Does that make Kim the odd man out? (Fans would hate that). Two starting middle INF slots and Bogaerts will have SS … so, three to fill 2B will force some creativity by Preller. The “easiest” path may be position shifts … and if that was the “only” solution to the excess … Cronenworth to 2B and Merrill / Kim to the OF … find a more productive 1B/DH.

If the solution is making trades … it is not going to Bogaerts and moving Cronenworth will be difficult given his contract and 2023. Actually, his last years at $11MM/year … in a few years with inflation … maybe not be that bad if he were a 2B (and rebound to previous forum). He may be easier to move in a couple of years. Not a fan of bad contract for bad contract even if another team wanted to play unless they were giving a worse contract. Does little to move the roster forward.

Shouldn’t trade Merrill … Padres NEED to get younger (and with lower cost talent) … Padres are already one of the oldest teams in MLB and carrying the 3rd highest payroll. Merrill is a Top 10 prospect with a plus bat. Padres have to start funneling in players like Merrill.

So, down to letting Kim go as a FA, trading him now, making a lot of position shifts.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2023, 8:12 am

Building on the themes of the previous post … and looking at the bigger picture for the long term consistent winning that Siedler says is his objective … need to take a longer look at player ages, use of long term deals, and what fans hate … money.

Padres have dug a big hole with what appears a strategy that seems to have focused on big money / long term deals and little attention to a complete roster. Padres are old (and will get older) with (except for Tatis) deals with players well into their 30s and early 40s. Older players do tend to drop in productivity and tend to get injured more (always some exceptions but they are exceptions). Not going to look good in 4-5 years with Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish, Musgrove, Suarez, and Cronenworth consuming a major part of the payroll.

Even the SP in debate for re-signing Snell, Wacha, and Lugo are 30+ … so signing them on multi year deals (for big money which they will command) will just make the issue worse … in the next few years.

Knee jerk reaction is always to spend more of Siedler’s money on aging players (has not worked so far) or trade the prospects for big money aging players (has not worked so far) … the future can get very ugly with that game plan.

How do the Padres contend in 2024 without making the future worse? With only Musgrove (injured) and Darvish (injured / 36 next season) returning SP … how do they address building a SP staff effective in 2024 but not on older pitchers on long term deals (they do have some of their better SP prospects maybe 2-3 years out).

Limits options. One, will have to spend decent money on any level of quality but have to limit the targets to 1-2 year deals. That would suggest “older” arms (not ideal). They do control Wacha on a club option (2 years, $16MM per year) … have they put themselves in a position that they have to exercise that option even with his injury history is a high priced risk? Lugo is a FA and will be 34 … do they pursue him on a 2 year deal in the $10-13MM range? Still need to replace Snell. Two, make a trade for a functional SP (but not with major prospects) would suggest taking on a costly contract for any quality or move Soto or Kim for that arm. Both scenarios will add a lot of payroll BUT if it is in any consolation it would be “short run” and look for a major overhaul in 2026. (Note: If the Padres are not in the playoff hunt … good chance they can deal Wacha, Lugo, et al and move the overhaul to 2025).

Supporting the focus on SP … has to be the belief that the long term core … Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, … and for now Campusano and Merrill will be enough to lift the offense closer to expectations than 2023. If they hold on Soto / Kim for 2024 … so much the better for the offense.

So simply (from my view) the full focus has to be on SP (at least three and maybe a fourth as the #6 to cover injuries) and that will require a significant commitment of additional salary on “shorter term” deals. Still need to spend on upgrading the bench … so easy to see the payroll going up by maybe 10+% to over $300MM.

Not going to be an easy winter for the Padres.

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2023, 11:47 am

Rumor from Acee  (not a perfect source and think the Padres said this last winter and did not follow up):

Padres plan to LOWER payroll for 2024. CBT payroll in 2023 is landing at about $280MM.

Based on the players returning (contract totals and estimated arb decisions) and assuming they exercise the club option on Wacha ($16MM), Martinez takes the player option ($8.7MM), and Carpenter takes his player option ($6MM). Lugo opts out and becomes a FA ... the Padres 2024 CBT starting point will be at about $260MM. Should add the issue will linger since the 7 long term contracts will be around $137MM for CBT purposes for at least the next 4 years so with the other CBT charges beyond player salaries ... can't see the Padres fall below $200MM no matter how much the try ... more likely floor is around $220MM if they move to all rookies ... and still be a top 10 payroll.

That is only $20MM under 2023 ... not a lot to work with if wanting to lower the payroll while improving the 26 man roster.

Sort of supports the reports that they are not pursuing Snell who will command about $30MM/yr long term. Adds some support for trading Soto and his potential $30MM and spreading that to fill multiple holes.

Never know ... circumstances can make the Padres make a U-turn on spending if "the right player(s)" fall into their laps.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 13, 2023, 7:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2023, 7:15 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2023, 6:18 am

Kim might be the best defensive middle infielder in baseball. Tatis made some unbelievable plays, but the consistency wasn't always there on the more regular ones. I don't doubt that he could do it. I just don't see why you would want to move a guy who might be a platinum glove contender at SS or 2B.

If we want to talk about off the wall ideas I think moving Cronenworth in a bad contract swap could make sense. They might be able to pickup someone like Robbie Ray, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Edwin Diaz or Mike Trout on the extreme end with prospects or cash going one way or another to balance things out. They could fill a hole while opening a more natural spot for Merrill when he's ready.

I keep bouncing around on the moving (and not moving) parts on this roster. Not coming up with a scenario that makes me feel comfortable of 2024 and … as important … the future.

Kim is an interesting problem (challenge) given he is a FA after 2024 and given his improved offense coupled with elite defense (assuming he does opt implode in 2024) will command a big, long term contract. However, like it or not, Bogaerts will be the SS going forward for a long time and for big money … Merrill is the young low cost future as a middle INF … Cronenworth is sitting with a (in my mind ill advised) long term deal but he was an All Star plus defensive 2B who may be better served retuning to 2B … would not just write him off after 2023 and being misplaced at 1B.

Does that make Kim the odd man out? (Fans would hate that). Two starting middle INF slots and Bogaerts will have SS … so, three to fill 2B will force some creativity by Preller. The “easiest” path may be position shifts … and if that was the “only” solution to the excess … Cronenworth to 2B and Merrill / Kim to the OF … find a more productive 1B/DH.

If the solution is making trades … it is not going to Bogaerts and moving Cronenworth will be difficult given his contract and 2023. Actually, his last years at $11MM/year … in a few years with inflation … maybe not be that bad if he were a 2B (and rebound to previous forum). He may be easier to move in a couple of years. Not a fan of bad contract for bad contract even if another team wanted to play unless they were giving a worse contract. Does little to move the roster forward.

Shouldn’t trade Merrill … Padres NEED to get younger (and with lower cost talent) … Padres are already one of the oldest teams in MLB and carrying the 3rd highest payroll. Merrill is a Top 10 prospect with a plus bat. Padres have to start funneling in players like Merrill.

So, down to letting Kim go as a FA, trading him now, making a lot of position shifts.

 

 

Bogaerts had high praise for Kim and all but admitted that Kim was better than him earlier this year. That coupled with reports that some in the front office are pushing for him to move to 1B or 2B  makes me think there's a good chance he moves for at least next season. Long term he could move back, but I expect they'll extend Kim and he'll play SS for the foreseeable future. He loves it here, everyone loves him and he gives us a foothold in the Korean market. I think they'll do everything they can to keep him.

I also don't think it would be that hard to move Cronenworth if they wanted too. The middle infield market is incredibly weak. He has an 8 team no trade clause which complicates things. They were shorter deals, but in a world where Adam Frazier and Jean Segura got 8m+ per year I think you could find teams that would be willing to take a chance on Jake. I don't know that they will look to move him. He's really the only big contract that is tradable and that they might be able to replace internally though.

I'm also not really buying any talk of Seidler looking to cut payroll. I think he's too pot committed with all the big contracts to really back off. I think he'll still spend big in 2024. We've got some prospects on the way. I don't know that any of them will be ready to go from the jump though. He might be able to start to pare back as they come up and prove themselves. They have to try to right the ship and capitalize on the early years of the big money deals. To me that means at least 1 more big money year.

I also think we're too focused on free agency. Whether it's Snell, Yamamoto or someone else I expect one big deal for a starter. I also expect they'll keep Wacha around. I expect AJ will be busy on the trade market too. 3 out of 4 spots in the infield are occupied by guys signed through at least 2030. That doesn't leave much room for the likes of Merrill, Pauley, Martorella and Castanon. I think they'll keep Merrill. The others could find themselves moved for pitching or maybe an outfielder. As long as AJ is around he'll keep pushing and moving prospects for players.

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2023, 8:18 pm

Well … I know it is a smallish sample size … but sure looks as though Campusano’s bat is winning him the #1 Catching slot in 2024 … boosted by his long control and being at league minimum cost. That probably means catching max 120 games.

So, maybe they focus on a defining the #2 catcher for 2024 … low cost / serviceable until Salas arrives in a couple of years.

Think Sanchez may have priced himself out of that role with his surprising 2024 production. Someone will bite on a decent money deal given the shortage of catchers and have to be worried that the real Sanchez is the guy who couldn’t hold then find a job at the start of 2023. Also, good chance Sanchez will want some confidence he is the #1 catcher (if for no other reason to set up his next FA).

Sullivan is on the 40 man … but have not see much (if any) offense out of him …more of a AAA call-up reserve as the #3 catcher.

Is Nola still in the picture … at last as the back-up? Before the injury that may have been were he was heading anyway … plus handler of pitchers but weak bat and getting old (34 next year). He is at least low cost … should not be around $2MM.

Since the need is to spend more heavily on SP/RP … and if you accept Campusano as the #1 … not sure who is around (at a low cost) to fill that back-up / part-time role?

Going to be an interesting under the radar roster decision.