Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2023, 1:06 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2023, 12:43 pm

I know that a Soto trade is very possible, and many would like to find a new home for Crone due to his money, and ship out Grisham because of his lack of offense, not to mention Carpenters blah performance.

If all three trades happen, SD would really become way to RHH heavy. To balance that out, you would have to almost guarantee that both Pauley and Marsee were ready to play starting the 24 season, just to balance out the batting order.

A challenge for Preller but if he has to manipulate the payroll to add SP he may need to take some of those gambles on Marsee / Pauley plus some "low cost" FA (or return in the trades).

Now I doubt he deals Cronenworth this winter (2023 performance and contact make that unlikely) and although I would love to move on from Grisham at maybe $4.9MM might have to hold since don't see a cheaper option on the horizon. Not sure what to do with Carpenter but let him go to ST and see if his body can hold a spot until Marsee/Pauley are ready (unless can bundle him in a Soto trade).

So putting aside the "it would be nice" moves ... the only one I expect is Soto traded. Still need to bet a bit on Marsee / Pauley and a low end FA for LF but need that $33MM for SP or the Padres will not make the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2023, 1:20 pm

Just as a reference ... per Roster Resource:

2024 "Cash Payroll" sits at $189MM ... $11MM under the rumored $200MM target

2024 "Luxury Tax Payroll" sits at $236.7MM ... $0.3MM under the first luxury tax threshold.

Probably have to look at both to make decisions. We believe the league is putting a lot of pressure on the Padres to get their finances in order (debt service issue) but not clear the parameters of that pressure ... but should assume for now the Padres are there with no room to move.

So, need some deletes (Soto) to modify the roster to be a contender ... all others are on the bubble but should be in play. Have to wonder if Preller is trying to convince some players on guaranteed deals to waive no trade clause or willing to deal the more marketable Kim with only one year control? What is unlikely is trading prospects for veterans with greater than league minimum salaries until they clear a lot of payroll first.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2023, 4:20 pm

Have seen a couple of articles (and these were from NYY based websites) that NYY could take both Soto and Crone, and still return a package of Everson Pereira, two of top three NYY SP prospects, and two more FCL prospects.

So maybe Pereira, Hampton, Warren, and the two lotto ticket FCL (Prellers specialty) for Soto and Crone.

Plus saving $40M.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2023, 6:04 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2023, 4:20 pm

Have seen a couple of articles (and these were from NYY based websites) that NYY could take both Soto and Crone, and still return a package of Everson Pereira, two of top three NYY SP prospects, and two more FCL prospects.

So maybe Pereira, Hampton, Warren, and the two lotto ticket FCL (Prellers specialty) for Soto and Crone.

Plus saving $40M.

Using the $40MM on SP could do a lot but not sure about the return … volume but (in my view) missing that lead return piece that has more upside and preferably a SP. Pereira and Hampton are Top 100 (back end) and ML ready (so is Warren) but just not sure they will have any impact on 2024. May be a fallback if nothing better emerges.

The key for 2024 will be how the $40MM is used …

Still lean toward SEA if lead by either Woo or Miller (both established ML at minimum with 6 year control). They too have some nice pieces to add. Arguably they too could take both Soto and Croney (need the offense) and with the right adds both ways could get both Woo and Miller … Padres probably toss in a non-ML ready SP prospect.

Just a wish but add Woo and Miller for the #4 and #5 both with upside and ML experience (ERA in 4s), league minimum, 6 years control could justify moving a Padres SP prospect (not Snelling / Lesko) then use the bulk of the $40MM saved for that strong #3 SP (less that $20MM) with money left over for a filling out the offense, bench.

Have no idea beyond NYY and SEA who may legitimately in play (need, money, prospects) … Cubs? Mets?

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2023, 6:27 pm

I could live with the SEA options, especially getting both Woo and Miller to go along with Musgrove and Darvish.

My main concern/disagreement with your post above, is Musgrove is probably a #2, and Darvish is a #3 or #4, so we still need a #1. So with $40M, may need to invest more and get a #1 if possible.

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2023, 8:41 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 27, 2023, 6:27 pm

I could live with the SEA options, especially getting both Woo and Miller to go along with Musgrove and Darvish.

My main concern/disagreement with your post above, is Musgrove is probably a #2, and Darvish is a #3 or #4, so we still need a #1. So with $40M, may need to invest more and get a #1 if possible.

A legit #1 would be great … just don’t see that coming via FA this winter since can’t see the Padres going $25-30MM per year on a 7ish year contract for Snell, Yamamoto, or go for Montgomery (who may not even be a #1). They are already stuck with 7 long term expensive contracts with the potential for another in Kim after this season … another (especially for a pitcher) would seem to create a greater future problem.

Not having a legit #1 is a shortcoming but don’t see a solution other than building a complete roster with the money available … make the playoffs …maybe pick up a #1 at the trade deadline … then hope the right players get hot in the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2023, 2:19 am

One factor Preller should be taking into account as he deploys limited money to fill multiple holes is who among the prospects by mid season may make a quality ML contribution … few seem ready to start 2024 with the Padres and have impact. IF they really believe in some … Preller may opt for just a “stopgap” add to start the season.

For SP: Snelling, Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert have touched AA in 2023 so by mid-season will be near a full AA season (assuming they are not assigned to AAA). Not out of the question one or more may be able to handle a ML #4-5 at the front end of their development.

In the filed the same thinking can be applied to Marsee, Pauley, and Martorella.

Limited resources will require some lower end fill anyway … with these prospects pending … the Padres projection for them may (should) focus the bigger deals towards upgraded where no prospect coming near term.

Does anyone think one (or more) of these prospects can start 2024 with the Padres over some low end FA and achieve the same productivity? Who?

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2023, 12:11 pm

"Does anyone think one (or more) of these prospects can start 2024 with the Padres over some low end FA and achieve the same productivity? Who?"

 

I guess this all depends on our reality with payroll.

Everyone and their brother say we have to trade Soto and reduce payroll...except for anyone with the Organization that is....plus

the same "experts" are saying we are in on Ohtani,Yamamoto and Lee?

So which is it?

In a perfect world we don't see any of the above mentioned prospects unless there are injuries late in the season...then get them ready to start '25.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2023, 12:41 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2023, 12:11 pm

"Does anyone think one (or more) of these prospects can start 2024 with the Padres over some low end FA and achieve the same productivity? Who?"

 

I guess this all depends on our reality with payroll.

Everyone and their brother say we have to trade Soto and reduce payroll...except for anyone with the Organization that is....plus

the same "experts" are saying we are in on Ohtani,Yamamoto and Lee?

So which is it?

In a perfect world we don't see any of the above mentioned prospects unless there are injuries late in the season...then get them ready to start '25.

 

I guess I am buying into the scenario that the CURRENT ROSTER is basically at the payroll target (less than $200MM CASH not AAV/Luxury Tax). (Using Roster Resource numbers).

So, Padres don't HAVE to reduce payroll if they want to go with who they have. Likely they don't. So if they WANT to sign Yamamoto (or similar) then they HAVE to make an offset payroll reduction. Choices.

So, as ususal Preller is "interested" in almost everyone available as a FA or via trade ... how "interested" is always a debate but he will make the calls to teams / agents. Preller makes a call and instantly an "insider" is linking Preller to player X. Usually the agents are leaking to boost the assumed interest in his client and get the price up. Preller becomes a stalking horse.

So, as an example, Preller may be making a call on Yamamoto (7 years / $200MM ... $28.6MM AAV) plus the return pieces for Soto vs keeping Soto (1 year / $33MM) ... and has to calculate being able to pull both sides of the transaction lest he trades Soto and can't sign Yamamoto.

My guess Preller would trade about anyone making over league minimum except Tatis and Musgrove if he could and not hampered by the player contract (size, no trade).