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OFFSEASON 2023-24

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LOVE rumor season.

Start with the ongoing rumors that the Padres will be dropping the payroll to $200MM the add the rumor that the league will “force” the Padres to comply with its debit service rules … that sends us thinking in one direction

Add the commentary the Preller does NOT want to trade Soto and will be seeing extension discussions with Boras this winter. That does not seem to fit the budget constraints for 2024 and beyond suggest in point one.

Now add that Preller is still interested in pursuing Ohtani (per a source) and if he can land Ohtani he might consider trading Soto.

Believe what you will … does suggest this saga may linger well into the winter.

It would be pretty funny if this whole saga ended with AJ trading Soto just to turn around and sign Ohtani.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 10, 2023, 3:36 pm

It would be pretty funny if this whole saga ended with AJ trading Soto just to turn around and sign Ohtani.

Actually would love that outcome … little chance but it is Preller and the Padres.

Ohtani is older … may or may not pitch effectively again but is in the same league as a hitter as Soto … just a DH but watching Soto he really is a DH playing LF.

Probably both will cost so much the difference (if any) will be immaterial. Ohtani however will return a ton of revenue from marketing in the international market. Then add whatever player return they would get for Soto

IF the money is there … actually makes sense … probably just a dream.

While we are all waiting to see what Preller has up his sleeve, anyone want to hazard a guess as to which player (FA) will be the first to sign for an average of 25M or more per season?

My guess is Aaron Nola.  Low key guy who just wants to be fairly paid and has said that 25M/season is what he wants.  Leaves the Phillies and signs with the Cardinals.

If the rumors on the Padres "entertaining" trading Cronenworth ... the current MLBTR piece on potential suitors for CINN's Jonathan India (2B, 3 ARB control years, former ROY) might expand our thinking on potential trade partners.

They had as "best fits": Dodgers; Mariners; White Sox

"nest tier": Blue Jays; Brewers; Tigers

the return target for CINN appears to be pitching (same as SD) ... maybe different level depending on how someone rates India v Cronenworth and/or what if anything CINN/SD adds to the deal or the buyer adds to the deal.

 

White Sox could be a suitor because they have plenty of room under the salary cap and need a stabilizing force in the middle infield with good defensive chops.  Not expecting much back in trade - getting out from that bad contract would be enough for me.

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Did listen to some radio guys suggesting that they can see Preller being creative and working a 3 team trade with Soto … basically:

Soto to team X for prospects

Those prospects go MILW

Burnes to SD

Logic: A). MILW appears to want to rebuild and lower payroll … Burnes has one year control at est. $15MM. B) Padres still want to contend in 2024 … have a big need for a TOR SP … and moving Soto ($33MM) for Burnes ($15MM) gets both that SP and opens more payroll space to fill other holes. Burnes for $15MM is way better than anything on the FA market plus does not clog up the future with another big contract

More than likely some other players would be involved going to/from SD … but that is the basic idea. Makes sense for the Padres in a win in 2024 mode without hurting the top internal prospects for the future.

Hole in LF and still at DH … that $18MM difference in salary would go a long way in filling both.

Rumor is that Arozarena could be available from TAM. Depending on what prospects were returned to SD from Fenns Soto/Burnes trade, Arozarena would help replace Sotos bat.

SD would still be RHH heavy, but if your effective I guess it doesnt matter.

Another trade idea for the backside of the rotation would be Blackburn from OAK. 2 years of control, and seems to have tools that Niebla could work with improving.

40 man's get set tomorrow - maybe some interesting transactions leading up to deadline?  Been really quiet so far.

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