Quote from BoosterSD on August 26, 2023, 8:38 pm

Been thinking about the tinkering in the offseason, and one of my main concerns with trading out Soto, besides the possibility of him totally regaining his form somewhere else, is that SD does not have many LHH as it is right now. And shipping out another would increase the unbalance on the team.

Not sure that you can count on Merrill being the answer in LF next year.

Speaking of LF, I know many on here (including myself) have suggested moving Bogaerts to 1B to increase the defense by putting Kim back at SS and Crone back at 2B. But maybe the better answer would be to have Bogaerts shift to LF, worked well for SD with Tatis. Still could have Kim at SS and Crone at 2B, then find some power for 1B, preferably LHH.

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2023, 4:30 am

I would probably be looking for a LHH OF if Soto was moved (or when he leaves after 2024) … Bogaerts to 1B should create an elite INF defensively. If anything defensively Bogaerts is a very steady fielder on ground balls (minimal errors) with his negatives being range and not a great throwing arm (both would not help his OF prospects).

Not seeing any compelling LHH 1B on the market I would pay the price for given the needs in pitching and OF/DH.

Not sure how the Padres will make decisions in relation to building for 2024 or building for the longer haul. On one hand Soto will be kept for 2024 (no good alternative) if they are trying to win but looking longer both Soto and Kim are FA after 2024, this winter needs SP that will take some big money deals, upgrades needed at C, DH, bench, CF … that is a lot to manage through and … for quality … cost a ton of money for a team with the 3rd highest payroll (CBT) in 2023 and not dropping all that much after the season.

Merrill is critical path be it in 2024 or after since can’t see both Soto and Kim extended while tendering one (or more) big contracts to SP (re-sign Snell? The Japanese star?). Merrlll may be ticketed for either SS or OF. Actually the real critical issue is getting the offense out of Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts in the middle of the order.

Although I do think Soto is a Padre in 2024 … I could think of some scenarios that have a longer run benefit while not hurting 2024 if the Padres really believe they cannot (will not) re-sign Soto. Simplest may be dealing Soto (clearing his $30MM) and either go all in on Bellinger as a LHH OF with likely a lower AAV and better defense  (having a great season … although his past worries me) or the holy grail of FA Ohtani where Soto’s $30MM will go a long way to fund Ohtani’s contract. Both LHH. With Soto under control … the FA signings would preceded any trade of Soto.

If I were to target future money … Kim would be first (assuming he continues on the current path) beyond GG SS ability and bat he has a major positive energy that the fans love … and this is supposed to be entertainment. Snell would be next … albeit a bit of a gamble but his upside as a #1 SP is something that internally can’t be filled quickly (maybe at some point Musgrove if healthy but not yet) … so no real quick back-fill opportunity. That drops Soto to 3rd in my mind and probably could do more for the team with the money targeted for Soto … so?

So, a lot of potential moving parts with move A having a ripple effect on other moves to balance the roster / payroll for 2024 and the longer term  … could cause some unexpected decisions.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on August 28, 2023, 9:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2023, 4:30 am

I would probably be looking for a LHH OF if Soto was moved (or when he leaves after 2024) … Bogaerts to 1B should create an elite INF defensively. If anything defensively Bogaerts is a very steady fielder on ground balls (minimal errors) with his negatives being range and not a great throwing arm (both would not help his OF prospects).

Not seeing any compelling LHH 1B on the market I would pay the price for given the needs in pitching and OF/DH.

As far as a strong arm in LF, does not matter that much, and I would think that Bogaerts arm is at least equivalent to that of Soto, and you would think that Bogaerts range would be better than Soto as well. Should not be worse, so I dont think that defensively we would not step backwards should SD want to rearrange this team and get some prospect value back in the form of trading Soto.

I do agree, that the market for 1B is weak, regardless of what side of the plate they bat from, so maybe bat wise, there is not an viable upgrade out there. And it might be best for a 2024 run to keep Soto and move Bogaerts to 1B, and go with the daily line up defensively of Soto, Grisham, Tatis with an INF of Machado, Kim, Crone, and Bogaerts. Then the main 4 (Tatis, Machado, Soto, and Bogaerts) just need to get back to the back of their baseball cards, and this team will be fine.

I do think that SD needs to look at resigning Sanchez. While his .216 BA and .291 OBP is not great, the slug is nice and he seems to be able to produce at a decent rate when the game is on the line, and seems to pair nice with Campusano.

SP and the balance of the roster/bench are the areas that really need to be addressed. I am not sure it is best for Merrill to be on the team and bounce around positions, so upgrades need to be in the form of proven ML guys. I would not be opposed to Cooper coming back, Michael A. Taylor for platoon or upgrade over Grisham would be another decent move.

And there will be some other decent bench guys available this winter that should help with the bench.

Snell is the biggest question mark for me. A lot of people on here were willing to let him walk prior to the season, and now that he is having a good/great season (in a walk year, happens a lot) are willing to sign him to a long term deal. I am not sold to be honest. Who is the real Snell, the guy here the first couple of years, where he was injured often and only produced for half a season? Or closer to the guy we are seeing this year? Not sure, big gamble in my mind.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 28, 2023, 9:54 am

Snell worries me because even when he dominates like he has this season he still can't go more than 6.

The rotation and Pen worry me going forward though....so any signings/extensions that help alleviate that are welcome.

Be that Snell,Lugo,Wacha,Hader(although I'd rather let him go for the $)

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2023, 10:32 am

Padres almost have to bet on the offense returning to the form each player has shown before 2023 ... contracts are what they are (not going to move any of the big ones) and then focus their efforts (money) on SP the work on the fringes for the bench / RP.

Even with a rebounding offense ... not going to win in 2024 with the SP as it stands.

1. Musgrove is returning (but has a should injury ... problem in 2024?)
2. Darvish is returning (but is he beginning to show his age? Pitching more like a mid-low end SP)
3. ? Wacha (will / should the Padres exercise the 2 year / $32MM Club Option ... if not Wacha will decline the player option and leave ... keep in mind he has a shoulder issue almost every season)
4. ? Lugo (no Club Option and he will decline the player option)
5. ? Snell is a FA
6. Anyone's guess among Avila, Morejon, ????????

Not a lot a upper rotation options on the FA market (and the better ones will cost as much as Snell and all have their own issues going forward). Almost forces the Padres to take the Club Option on Wacha and if they do ... I have them around $265MM without three key pitchers ... Snell, Lugo, and Hader and still having a major need for a 2nd catcher, 9th hitter, bench, and likely RP given the other FA.

Just re-signing Snell / Sanchez (or equivalent) will push them over the $300 MM budget and given the expiring contracts for the NYY / NYM potentially land them as the #1 payroll in MLB ... and still the same team without Hader and Lugo. That is not encouraging.

Add that a few months back there were reports saying the Siedler suggested that he may not want to exceed $300MM and also suggested that the current spending level (#3) will probably drop down but stay in the top 10 ... so something in the lower $200s.

Given the desire to win ... the holes (especially top line SP) ...  the apparent payroll considerations ... a not particularly inspiring FA class ... not sure how the Padres handle this.

1. Clearly the Padres will need to focus on low cost / short term adds ... or internal options at low cost / long control ... Internally to start 2024 Merrill is the only possible quality add likely as the 9th hitter playing DH/INF back-up
2. Maybe they suck it up for 2024 and add one big contract (SP ... Snell or equivalent) and stay under $300MM BUT if that is quality that signing lingers for years with the other long term deals ... and that makes an ongoing problem
3. If they target some other larger contracts ... likely will have to shave off some payroll from the current roster and most are realistically unmovable (no trade or seemingly bad contracts) ... that puts Soto in the crosshairs to use his $30MM and maybe split that down money on 2 or 3 upgrades. Looking more and more as though neither he nor the Padres want him here in 2025.
4. Add that based on Ohtani's stated preference to play for a winner and given that other teams will bid high (SF just came out and said the have the money and motivation) ... might not get to 1B in signing him.

Going to be a tough winter for Preller.

Quote from BoosterSD on August 28, 2023, 11:11 am

There will also be some trades that we dont see coming and other items that will come into play. Preller will not sit pat after this embarrassing season. Neither will Seidler.

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2023, 11:16 am

MLBTradeRumors recently came out with their FA power rankings and 6 of the top 10 are SP. Snell is 6th among those SP. Padres have to sign one ... but all have their issues ... yet all seem ticketed for 5-6 year deals at a $20-25MM AAV.

1. Yamamoto (Japan) ... 25 ... dominating in Japan ... both big plus factors but not the biggest guy and not a big FB plus how will he translate into MLB (or how quickly).
2. Urias (LAD) .. QO ... 2023 mix of injury / ineffectiveness
3. Montgomery (L) (TEX) ... no QO ... 30 ... not great stuff but strong past three years
4. Nola (PHIL) ... QO ... 30 ... performance down in 2023
5. Giolito (LAA) ... no QO ... 29 ... solid in 2023 but injury history
6. Snell (SD) ... 30 ... we know his ups and downs and in somewhat a perspective from the national types ... 6th on this list

Side: think there is a very good chance Nola and Montgomery get re-signed by their teams ... both teams have money and are playoff teams and will be motivated.

Health / inconsistency make me weary of Urias / Golito on big money / long term deals. Snell recently has been healthy but still only a 5 inning pitcher which in turn hurts the pen (which hurts getting wins even in his starts).

So, maybe the best gamble is going all in on Yamamoto who does pitch a lot of innings and is dominate in Japan and given his age ... could give extra years (if his agent wants extra years). This is IF they choose to go for a major SP add.

Could they live with Musgrove - Darvish - Wacha - and two lower cost / short term adds as the 2024 equivalents of Lugo and Wacha. Maybe Martinez (who will take the player option) gets a SP slot. Maybe Avila / Morejon play up. Is Bergert ready? Beginning to really get shy of giving more big money / long term deals to "risky" players after the big money / long term deals to slam dunk stars who have failed. If there is money to spend ... spread it around to complete a balanced roster.

Quote from Stergios on August 28, 2023, 1:52 pm

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/san-diego-padres-aj-preller-change-01h8xebnfygh

Interesting read.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 28, 2023, 2:12 pm

Quote from Stergios on August 28, 2023, 1:52 pm

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/san-diego-padres-aj-preller-change-01h8xebnfygh

Interesting read.

So basically,  Preller doesn't know how to run a team? Isn't that what we've been saying here?

It's extremely obvious he wants to control EVERYTHING. And he's shown, season after season, that he's not good enough to do that. He's not going to miraculously change over the winter.

We won't win with AJ at the helm.