Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2024, 1:34 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on March 14, 2024, 12:47 pm

Honestly, whiffing on Duvall and Rosario for such cheap deals signals that they're focused on the likes of Taylor and/or Pham (who they must view as more than incremental upgrades), or they're aiming even higher. If the latter is true, that almost certainly would mean a trade of some kind. We heard rumblings earlier in the offseason about interest in Jarren Duran, but who else could we theoretically be targeting for OF via trade?

Kepler? Carlson? Or a truly crazy hail mary for Arozarena?

With Edmans and Nootbaar both looking like they will start the season on the IL, I dont think STL can ship out Carlson at this time.

Kepler would be a nice get, his price tag at $10M might be too much for SD and the CBT level??

Duran at league min salary would probably be the best fit financially, and could take LF and keep Merrill in CF. And with his good BA/OBP could be the lead off guy that we are looking for, and plus speed from what I have read.

But in honesty, is Duran that much better than what we could get from Marsee?

Quote from sportwarrior on March 14, 2024, 1:55 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2024, 1:34 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on March 14, 2024, 12:47 pm

Honestly, whiffing on Duvall and Rosario for such cheap deals signals that they're focused on the likes of Taylor and/or Pham (who they must view as more than incremental upgrades), or they're aiming even higher. If the latter is true, that almost certainly would mean a trade of some kind. We heard rumblings earlier in the offseason about interest in Jarren Duran, but who else could we theoretically be targeting for OF via trade?

Kepler? Carlson? Or a truly crazy hail mary for Arozarena?

With Edmans and Nootbaar both looking like they will start the season on the IL, I dont think STL can ship out Carlson at this time.

Kepler would be a nice get, his price tag at $10M might be too much for SD and the CBT level??

Duran at league min salary would probably be the best fit financially, and could take LF and keep Merrill in CF. And with his good BA/OBP could be the lead off guy that we are looking for, and plus speed from what I have read.

But in honesty, is Duran that much better than what we could get from Marsee?

Yeah that's a good question. Duran's got better wheels, which means he might get away with softer contact a little easier than Marsee, but maybe the team feels he's farther along and closer to making mature contributions than Marsee? Especially if the team feels Marsee needs to work on more consistent hard contact?

Either way, I'm not advocating for any of these guys (Duran probably the least of the bunch, fwiw), but rather posing the open question of who could Preller possibly be targeting as a significant corner OF upgrade.

Quote from JasonE135 on March 14, 2024, 2:55 pm

The Cease trade followed the values on BTV and worked out as a fair trade on that app. BTV says that it would take either Snelling or Lesko along with Vasquez to get Durran. I don't think so. Kepler could be had for roughly 1/4 the price, so it would cost something like Vasquez and Valenzuela. I might do that, but I don't know exactly what the Twins would want for Kepler.

I think the Padres should keep Vasquez. They are going to need more than 5 starters to get through the season. In fact they should have 10. They don't. The Padres need numerous backup starters.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 14, 2024, 5:17 pm

You are correct.  Depth behind the starting 5 is thin but at least we start the season with 5 healthy starters, unlike last year.  Waldron and Vasquez will likely be the first to get the call should we have to bump one of our top 5.  Don't think we can count on other rostered pitchers (one or more may be cut) like Avila, Patino, Morejon, Groome or Otto even if all were healthy and still had options.   If desperate, some non-40 man El Paso pitchers could be thrown in the mix.

The strength of our minors, however, is in the SP at the AA level and below.  Snelling and Lesko are the future stars but likely not ready to jump right in until at least 2025.  On the other hand, you have former collegiate pitchers Mazur, Bergert and Krob would could give you a competitive spot start.  We should get a good look at this group in the upcoming spring prospect games.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2024, 7:11 pm

Very good article on The Athletic about just how the SP of SD is now after the trade. Depending on what matrix you want to look at, the article puts SD rotation in top 5 of MLB.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2024, 7:34 pm

Rumors have it that PITT is in the mix to sign Pham … combine that with reports that Padres were not willing to go up to Pham’s demand makes a reunion with the Padres less certain.

Not surprised Pham is playing hard ball on a contract … if anything he is really focused on getting paid at the level he sees correct … had a bitter opinion of STL and how they handled him early in his career and that attitude is still there apparently.

Don’t see Preller overpaying per his valuation … so maybe a stalemate.

I don’t see Taylor who more than likely will offer no boost to the offense … not better than Profar despite his 2023. Running out of options.

Is Pollack healthy and does he have anything left in the tank on a part time basis? Does suddenly Davis released from SF look better 3B/DH/LF … he can be had likely on a lower end FA deal?

Anyone out there (at the Padres price) better than Wade, Marcano and Marsee?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on March 15, 2024, 6:22 am

No Patino. Eguy made it after all. No real surprises.

https://twitter.com/PadresPR/status/1768526806704066686

Quote from fenn68 on March 15, 2024, 6:42 am

Pending any new moves … they only need to drop one position player (Sullivan?) to make the opening day roster of 13.

Four pitchers to pare … probably the low end includes Avila (DFA), Kolek (returned to SEA), Estrada (optioned to AAA), and Morejon (optioned to AAA). IF one sneaks in (Kolek vs returning him to SEA), then probably Vasquez (optioned to AAA as a SP as the first call up if needed).

A lot of time until the opener with SF … and Preller loves moves at the last moment … so what we see may not end up being what we get.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 15, 2024, 9:10 am

Similarly with the caveat that Preller is not making any further trades before opening day in San Diego, my guess is that they keep LH hitting Sullivan, who has had a quietly impressive spring, as the 3rd catcher and emergency OF.

While rostering both Pauley and Wade for Korea, I see only one of them making the team.  Since Wade has no options left and would have to be DFA'd, unless he completely flops in the exhibition games and any opportunity he has against the Dodgers, I think they send Pauley out to El Paso.  Wade is the superior defensive player and can play virtually all positions on the field except catcher and pitcher.   The Padres are going to have to rely on strong defense and solid pitching to be competitive this year, so I'm keeping Wade (for now).   Or the Padres could re-set by rostering Mercado, who didn't make the trip, and not keeping either Pauley or Wade - this might not happen until Machado can play at 3b, however.

Likewise go with Estrada, Morejon and Vasquez being sent down.  While Avila and Kolek appear to have an edge for the last spot, don't forget Patino, who didn't make the trip.  Again, they must produce or Patino could sneak in; I'm sure he's getting some extra work in San Diego after reporting to ST late.  The next 10-12 days will likely determine who wins that final spot on the 13 man  "opening day" pitching staff.