Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2023, 1:25 pm

Just another slant on winter moves (potential) …

1. Padres may be losing via FA Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez, Hader, Garcia … that is a big hit to both quality and quantity and hard to replace

2. Seems as though the payroll reduction narrative is valid (how much?)

3. Padres have rebuilt the farm system with some quality prospects arriving in a couple of years

4. Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish and Suarez are on high cost / long term deals and become a base that has to be worked around

So IF Soto becomes the prime trade chip … instead of maximizing the return in prospects … ask less in prospects but require to trade partner to take on Carpenter ($5.5MM for one year) … that would free up over $35MM beyond the natural drop to meet the payroll target and redeploy some on filling the blanks.

Now if they really want to change course try to move Cronenworth’s contact … but that would probably require the Padres add a prospect or two for basically nothing.

Just potential twist in player movement.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2023, 1:45 pm

"I'm sure you know that this is a blast from the past!  Caissie was one of 4 Padres farmhands, 3 of which had not even played in the system, when they were traded to the Cubs for Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini on 12/29/20 along with Zach Davies."

 

Yes....hence the smiley face.

I've been monitoring many of the prospects we've traded over the last few seasons.

Caissie,Cantillo,Wood (of course) have all been doing well.

Most have not.....even Bobby Barrels has struggled since traded.

Obviously some of these guys will come back to haunt us but you can't trade 50+ prospects and expect every one to not be a ML factor.

The point is to win a WS in the process....if not next year then at least the Soto trade (unless extended) will have been for naught.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2023, 2:24 pm

Considering the Padres got Darvish who, in 2022, made 30 starts (194.2 innings) with a 3.10 ERA and delivered a 16-8 record to set up a deep playoff run … has to be worth the prospects even if one does become a ML factor. Over 3 years … 84 starts.

That is sort of what a team trading prospects wants as a result.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 28, 2023, 7:58 pm

Knew Padres opened the MLB season with 2 games against the Dodgers on 20 and 21 March, but didn't realize they then come back to a couple of Spring Training games against the Mariners on 25 & 26 March at Petco before playing their home opener against the Giants beginning 28 March.  Wonder if Padres/Dodgers will be allowed to carry a few extra players since both play their previous spring training game on 3/13 before flying to Korea?

Also, hope this disruption in the normal spring training routine doesn't result in the adverse impact the WBC had on the team this year.  I know it's only a week so I have my fingers crossed that they not only beat the Dodgers twice but also look very ready to take on the Giants for that opening series.  What will that 2024 team look like?  Might be a wild ride over the next 90 days.

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 28, 2023, 8:43 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on September 28, 2023, 7:58 pm

Knew Padres opened the MLB season with 2 games against the Dodgers on 20 and 21 March, but didn't realize they then come back to a couple of Spring Training games against the Mariners on 25 & 26 March at Petco before playing their home opener against the Giants beginning 28 March.  Wonder if Padres/Dodgers will be allowed to carry a few extra players since both play their previous spring training game on 3/13 before flying to Korea?

Also, hope this disruption in the normal spring training routine doesn't result in the adverse impact the WBC had on the team this year.  I know it's only a week so I have my fingers crossed that they not only beat the Dodgers twice but also look very ready to take on the Giants for that opening series.  What will that 2024 team look like?  Might be a wild ride over the next 90 days.

I believe/wish that having 20 spring training games before the Korea series should have the team almost ready, if not, I am all for treating them as glorified spring training games and get the team as ready as they can be for the Giants series,

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 4:18 am

Any word on MLB allowing players (especially pitchers) coming into ST a bit earlier?

Teams / players may want more time to get pitchers into game shape before the long gap during the trip to Korea … try to avoid injuries while still trying to win those games (yes every game counts). One way or the other the ramp up process for pitchers will be different … probably not good if thinking about a 162 game season. Given the pitchers going FA … most of the roster of pitchers will be in turmoil trying to make the roster and they will put extra pressure on themselves to show well before roster decisions are made.

I would guess they will be able to carry a couple of extra players (maybe 2 max) but the other question is do they have to set their 26 (28) man roster before those games? Usually they wait to the end of ST to sort through the final slots … and with the current roster there will be a lot of slots in question. Can they set a roster for Korea then change before the next games without having to deal with the issues with minor league options, etc. If they sign a veteran on a minor league contract with an opt out if not on the opening day roster … does the early start cut into the time to make a decision on that player?

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 5:06 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 10, 2023, 8:49 am

Soto sits just under 40% of his at bats not putting the ball in play. Now I don't know how that compares to other top hitters but if you're batting in the middle of the lineup, surely you're needed to AT LEAST put the ball in play, to get guys moving, right?

One, I hope Preller is gone in about 4 weeks time. And as many believe that just won't happen, then 2, please DO NOT keep Soto here, especially at over $30+ million.

This team is not a championship contender( more likely to get 90 losses than 90 wins)Moves need to be made. Management needs to admit its mistakes and move on. Sure, Soto could turn his numbers around( and hit above .260....) but it certainly doesn’t appear he'll do it in San Diego.

The time to start the rebuild was at the trade deadline. Now that we've missed that mile post, this off season is our next best chance. Please don't miss it.

 

Interesting article by Acee, on Soto's approach post All Star break:

Soto has walked 15 times in 97 plate appearances this month, which is 25 percent less than his rate for the season to that point (one walk every 6.5 plate appearances versus one every 5.2). He has actually been walking less since the All-Star break (every 6.6 plate appearances versus every 4.8). Additionally, his take rate in the strike zone is down since the break (35 percent versus 40 percent).

Moving him down the lineup( where he should have been from the day we acquired him!) sure looks to have made a difference in his approach to hitting(And whoever had him batting in the 2 hole, should probably be unemployed next week)

I tried to attach a Baseball reference graph( no luck) to show the EXTREME disparity in numbers from batting in the 2 hole compared to the 3 and 4 slots. Totally different guy. He and Machado will need to sit down and discuss which guy is better for the team, in which slot( I still think Soto should hit 4, since Manny had put together top 3 MVP seasons from the 3 hole)

Be interesting to see what transpires over the winter.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 6:29 am

Did hear a quick interview with Soto a few days back … he did not reference where he hit in the line-up but he made it clear that after the All-Star break he intentionally changed his approach to be more aggressive. What drove that? Self generated … hitting coach … Melvin … Preller (Preller’s henchmen) … probably not. I put my money on Boras telling him that is the best route for that mega contract (cynical?)

No matter … his second half (and his overall stats) … has ensured his mega contract as a FA after 2024 and that extremely long $500MM deal at age 26 is still attainable. Actually that is not much more than Machado is getting from the Padres combining the original contract with the extension.

Quote from fenn68 on September 29, 2023, 8:03 am

Just throwing another option in adjusting the roster considering the payroll potential issue, consider:

1. Even with Hader departing, Padres still have Suarez and Barlow as RH closer options and Cosgrove as a LH closer option.

2. IF the Padres want to gamble while lowering both 2024 and future commitments, should they put Suarez on the trade block

3. In the back of many minds … quality closers can be found out of the shadows … see Kirby, Bednar, Hand, Bell, et al (even Suarez when signed).

Might have a buyer in TEX who even as a playoff team (based on a major offense) the pen had 32 blown saves vs only 30 saves and their #1 closer had an ERA around 4.50.

Suarez may not be as good as Hader but Hader as a FA will get a much  bigger contract and some question whether TEX would be the highest bidder. So, should be a possible move. IF not Suarez … Barlow as a former closer? Barlow will get about $5-6MM in his one year pre FA .. and that for a set-up man for Suarez. Remember Wilson should be back and is an effective set-up / 8th inning arm.

Just another route to shift payroll, maybe dump Carpenter, maybe add international bonus money, maybe get a serviceable bench piece / prospect … for a RP that maybe has a better chance to backfill with undervalued arms.