Quote from fenn68 on March 2, 2024, 5:00 am

Interesting discussion on teams and their evaluation of the FA … frustrating the players.

The idea is that all the teams (even with different models) are using similar factors in projecting future production and are locking into the valuations those models yield. Then not a lot of leverage the agents can use when pitting team vs team.

In the past the fans / agents / players used historical performance to value the player and negotiate a future contract … future was really more opinion based and thus easier to negotiate up. Now, with the analytical biased front offices, have a  firm valuation and will not “over pay” in their model evaluation.

To that end, looked at Fangraphs’ for the five subject FA … all had significantly lower 2024 projections than their 2023 performance. Clearly can see players / agents working off the past seeing $8-12MM deals (some multi-year) but teams working off the analytical projections seeing something more like one year deals and $5MM (or less).

Quote from fenn68 on March 2, 2024, 5:16 am

Following up on the previous post … per Fangraphs:

Projected WAR vs 2023 WAR:

1.0 down from 1.8 … Pham

0.9 down from 1.7 … Taylor

0.4 down from 2.3 … Belt

0.2 down from 1.9 … Duvall

0.0 down from 1.4 … Rosario

If the teams’ models are similar … can see why they are not being signed “at ask” … or maybe at all if the internal candidates project in the 0.0 - 1.0 WAR range while at league minimum. Analytical projections rule!

For the Padres do the prospects project to a similar level? If Preller waits can he get similar projection “cheaper” with players who don’t make other teams’ 26 man and become available via trade or waivers? Will one (or more) of these FA end up signing for a really low cost base with incentives (modest incentives like Profar).

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 2, 2024, 12:33 pm

While guys like Pauley and Marsee may be able to produce about the same as the remaining free agents…and at league minimum,there is the fact that for the future of the player and this team they maybe should still be in AA or AAA to start the season.

Just because Taylor or Duval may only hit .210 doesn’t mean it would be great for Pauley or Marsee to struggle and hit .215 for a full season to start their careers.

Point being,even if the youngsters would out perform the veterans,and for much less,doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best way to go.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 2, 2024, 1:17 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 2, 2024, 12:33 pm

While guys like Pauley and Marsee may be able to produce about the same as the remaining free agents…and at league minimum,there is the fact that for the future of the player and this team they maybe should still be in AA or AAA to start the season.

Just because Taylor or Duval may only hit .210 doesn’t mean it would be great for Pauley or Marsee to struggle and hit .215 for a full season to start their careers.

Point being,even if the youngsters would out perform the veterans,and for much less,doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best way to go.

 

 

All becomes a function of options vs the money they want to deploy and what they can get with that mix.

I would prefer sending the prospects down for at least a half a season and sign a couple of the FA as their ask drops just for the veteran stability to start the season. Guessing the Padres will end up with one (or two) of the remaining FA.

All the the remaining FA have some pluses and some minuses and likely they will approach how far they will drop their demand differently.

Belt ... DH only at this point still crushes RHP (and that is a need) but is really bad vs LHP (maybe forcing a platoon) ... given his history may be very reluctant to really drop his demand and wait into the season or just retire ... never know.

Taylor is the CF with defense but coming off a good offensive season but with an inconsistent offense may just wait to see if other teams need a CF and keep his demand high. Not sure that Azocar / Mercado can't cover CF adequately (see Grisham) for a lot less.

Basically would not wait for either Belt or Taylor.

Pham seems to be getting the press on Padre interest ... may be the best all around hitter of the bunch but a liability in LF (although that can be limited if he ends up the DH). Personally not a fan but good chance he is the first Padre option.

If Pham goes first what money is left for either Duvall (my preference) or Rosario?

Rosario is a LHH but now really a DH only an if they want to keep Pham out of the OF ... Duvall although RHH may be the better choice providing some defense in LF (or CF).

Can they land Pham and Duvall only deploying $15MM total on 1 year deals each? Actually maybe they can the way this market is going. Pham goes DH ... Duvall goes LF/CF ... Profar gets playing time in LF ... Azocar supports  CF/LF. RHH heavy to start the season but all the LHH prospects are just a phone call away if they develop as hoped.

Side: did hear a suggesting that Rosario (LHH) might have to settle for a make good MiL deal as did Cron ...who signed for low base with modest incentives ... much lower than most expected for Cron ... so would not rule out Rosario at that kind of deal ... maybe an alternative to Pham (who is very pay focused).

Quote from BoosterSD on March 2, 2024, 1:28 pm

Dont forget that Duvall can also play 1B as well, so an option to platoon with Crone if needed for a matchup.

Rosario played 130 games in LF last season for ATL, so I dont think he is relegated to DH only.

My preferred option would be Rosario and Duvall if the money is right.

Quote from fenn68 on March 2, 2024, 1:50 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on March 2, 2024, 1:28 pm

Dont forget that Duvall can also play 1B as well, so an option to platoon with Crone if needed for a matchup.

Rosario played 130 games in LF last season for ATL, so I dont think he is relegated to DH only.

My preferred option would be Rosario and Duvall if the money is right.

I can live with that.

Keeps Pham off the team if they opt for Rosario as the DH being the missing LHH. Although Rosario played a lot of LF for ATL ... statistically graded out a poor defender ... basically in the Pham camp.

Rosario (LHH DH) ... Duvall (RHH CF/LF) ... then some mixing with Profar (LHH/RHH) and Azocar for the 9th slot and LF/CF would be workable and keep all the prospects in the minors ... and likely be one of the cheaper fill options if I am right on Rosario.

Side: I know Merrill has been getting all the hype on making the roster in LF/CF but I would not be surprised ... if any of the prospects make the 26 man ... it is Marsee (LHH) who is the experienced CF and maybe has the best developed plate discipline at this point ... the guy can hit but can take a walk, hit opposite field if needed, can run, and may well be further along on the development plan than Merrill. Merrill may have the best future upside but on opening day Marsee may be the most ready by doing all the "small stuff" Shildt seems to really like.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 2, 2024, 11:12 pm

Padres transactions had Groome being optioned to El Paso - thought he was out of options.  Could be he was outrighted after not being claimed by anyone.  Padres have a lot of promising arms up and down the system, so it appears they'll keep their top prospects below AAA (unless it is a RP that has the right kind of stuff to succeed in a high altitude venue).  So, I'm thinking they'll initially send down virtually all the RP with options (unless they trade one or more) and see how far they can compete before bringing up the younger guys so I wouldn't be surprised if Kolek and Patino go to Korea and be on the bubble until the official end of spring training.

This is similar to my thinking about the position players - play the guys with the most experience - like Azocar, Johnson, Locastro, Mercado and/or Mitchell - and let the less experienced but more talented youngsters get fired up in San Antonio to fight their way onto the roster.  Lots of arms riding the planes from either El Paso or San Antonio in 2024 but once the hitters are up, don't expect them to be sent back down.

Because of our strong infield defense and deep relief staff, think we'll be in most games in the early part of the season and after the non-prospects on the roster are exposed, the true prospects will have had enough time to get a few more plate appearances in AA and be confident to rake when they return.

So my 31 man team in Korea will be:  Pitchers (16) -  Darvish, Musgrove, King, Vasquez, Waldron (SP); Suarez, Matsui*, Go, de Los Santos, Kolek, Cosgrove, Avila, Brito, Peralta, Morejon, Wilson, Patino*

• Possible roster exemption because of injury or delay in reporting visa issues

Position players (15) - Cronenworth (1b), Bogaerts (2b), Machado (3b/dh), Kim (ss), Profar (LF), Azocar (CF), Tatis (RF), Campusano (c-1b), Mitchell (of/dh), Higashioka (c), Sullivan (c-1b), Batten (inf), Rosario (inf), Locastro (of), Mercado (of)

Merrill could force his way on the team but I would send him down to San Antonio to join Salas, Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, etc.   Would use up the last 3 open spots on 40 man for Mitchell, Locastro and Mercado but since it's likely they put Marcano on 60 day IL this would open yet another spot for a veteran OF like Pham or Duvall.

Quote from fenn68 on March 3, 2024, 12:44 am

Maybe mis-reported on Groome? … he was optioned in 2021-22-23 so that should cover this three option years. Plus he started in 2016 … so I think should have enough time to become a minor league FA if he cleared waivers.

I guess they could have put him on waivers .. he cleared … and re-signed a minor league contract all under the radar. Assigned not optioned?

———-

Possible since 2024 season has yet to start … this is just a procedural move under 2023 roster and when the season actually starts and the 26 man roster is set the Padres will then have to put Groome on waivers? If so, that preserves another few weeks of control over Groome in case of injuries or trying to deal him … without him clogging up the ML camp.

Quote from fenn68 on March 3, 2024, 7:14 am

If the Padres are looking at the season as a 1st half (go with experience), 2nd half (hope prospects develop for call-ups) then set up 2025 … that might set-up how they approach any new adds (FA/trades) and how long they go with the internal “non-prospects”.

Still think the Padres will sign one or two FA on 1 year deals (low cost) who can be dropped mid-season if needed without hurting the payroll and will not be an issue in 2025.

Agreeing that the prospects (Merrill, Marsee, Pauley, Martorella) should be sent down for seasoning … making some adds facilities that but also the Padres may just be comfortable TO START the season with Profar, Azocar, … maybe Mitchell filling around the adds allowing all four prospects to start in AA.

In a sense, looking to the second half, using Marsee and Merrill in both LF and CF given the Padres a sense of confidence it they have to make a call-up mid=season each can play either slot and then the offense can be the focus. Knowing the OF defense is not the issue, should we see Merrill in AA back at SS for further development there if Kim gets injured (or is not extended in for 2025)?

Also, the handling of Pauley is instructive. In ST has been 1B/3B but not OF where the need for a hitter is paramount now. Are the Padres providing insurance for 2024 injuries to Machado and/or Cronenworth … plus have to expect Preller still considering moving Cronenworth if he can. Pauley might also serves … eventually as the extra INF and DH but not an early ticket to the OF.

Side: know ST is always mis-leading but Azocar is preforming well defensively and is not overmatched offensively … Padres might just go with him (and maybe Mercado) in CF to start in a low cost / do no harm approach until they are comfortable that Marsee is ready. Betting the Grisham threshold is not that much of a hurdle and if they augment LF/DH with better offense should not present a problem.