Quote from Notmyopic on September 27, 2023, 2:50 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 27, 2023, 2:00 pm

If we traded Soto, Grisham, and Kim that should save SD about $41M that SD could allocate to other spots, namely SP. However, you would still need to replace those players.

The somewhat easy one, Kim is replaced by Merrill, and at league minimum. For ease of transition to the ML for Merrill, I would still lean towards a shift of Bogaerts to 1B. Even over keeping Crone at 1B. His batting numbers lean more towards that of a 1B than Crone, and should take pressure off of Crone to hit like a 1B.

That would give me an INF of Machado, Merrill, Crone, and Bogaerts, very athletic and should be extremely good defensively.

Grisham, although Fenn points out his lacking in defensive metrics, the eye test shows that he plays CF with an ease that not a lot can. So as easy as it would be to replace his bat, also need that GG caliber player on defense. Azocar hasnt shown the power of Grisham as of yet; however, his BA is better and he is still getting his feet wet in the ML. As long as Azocar is not much less in CF defensively, then you have replaced Grisham for league minimum as well.

The hard one, Soto! Especially if you trade Grisham, Soto is the only source of LHH power on this team. Even with his down production at Petco, he still has provided 35 HRs, and 108 RBIs. That is a lot to replace, and there is not many in the MLs let alone the SD system that can do that.

How do you replace Soto???

I might be alone in the not sold on Merrill camp.  But I certainly think he isn’t big league ready.  He at least needs half a season more in AA.  I also think finding a RF is easier than CF and maybe Tatis can shift.  Soto has now put together his second best campaign, not sure we should trade him unless there is zero chance we can sign him.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 27, 2023, 3:12 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on September 27, 2023, 2:50 pm

I might be alone in the not sold on Merrill camp.  But I certainly think he isn’t big league ready.  He at least needs half a season more in AA.  I also think finding a RF is easier than CF and maybe Tatis can shift.  Soto has now put together his second best campaign, not sure we should trade him unless there is zero chance we can sign him.

Dont disagree with most of this; however, depending on how drastically SD cuts payroll, I dont think we can afford Soto and field a 26 man roster.

I would not switch Tatis to CF, I think he has found his home in RF. Its even easier to find a LFer than a RFer or CFer, just wont be as productive as Soto.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 3:14 pm

Pretty sure after discussions with their agents this summer and early winter … Padres will know if they can (or want to) sign Soto and Kim at the price their agents will demand. So, maybe the trade decision is easier if you know they will walk as FA after 2024.

Can’t “replace” the talent of Soto or Kim … but their money could be leverage into upgrading a SP staff that, for now, looks as Musgrove (shoulder injury), Darvish (elbow injury and aging), with career minor leaguers in Avila, Waldron, and Morejon … then it drops off. That is a staff of a 90 loss team.

If the payroll drop is valid … not going to win with that staff even with Soto and Kim so what would be the point in keeping them? Just add some low cost adequate position players while betting on Machado - Tatis - Bogaerts to lead the offense with support from Pauley and Merrill, hopefully. Make a strong push on adding some ML quality SP.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 3:27 pm

With Grisham … not sure his defense is doing enough to win games vs the lack of offensive contribution is to losing games. He is now Top 10 all time in season strikeouts for the Padres and on a 2 year sub-200 BA run.

Gut feeling is basically an “average” CF who can provide some offense would be better for the team winning. I would not do it (but the Padres might) move Tatis to CF (they have long though he would be a gold glove all-star in CF) and that would the to add a more offense oriented corner OF at lot easier than a CF.

Azocar would be a big gamble (more a 4th OF) and Marsee or Bush are not ready yet … so that alone is a stumbling block unless they gamble with Azocar to start and project Marsee to develop as a mid-season call-up.

Grisham would not be the first domino to fall but depending on the other moves … he has to be in play.

Quote from Notmyopic on September 27, 2023, 4:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 3:14 pm

Pretty sure after discussions with their agents this summer and early winter … Padres will know if they can (or want to) sign Soto and Kim at the price their agents will demand. So, maybe the trade decision is easier if you know they will walk as FA after 2024.

Can’t “replace” the talent of Soto or Kim … but their money could be leverage into upgrading a SP staff that, for now, looks as Musgrove (shoulder injury), Darvish (elbow injury and aging), with career minor leaguers in Avila, Waldron, and Morejon … then it drops off. That is a staff of a 90 loss team.

If the payroll drop is valid … not going to win with that staff even with Soto and Kim so what would be the point in keeping them? Just add some low cost adequate position players while betting on Machado - Tatis - Bogaerts to lead the offense with support from Pauley and Merrill, hopefully. Make a strong push on adding some ML quality SP.

If we do trade Soto, the Cubs would be interested and PCA would be a nice piece to make the trade around.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 4:58 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on September 27, 2023, 4:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 3:14 pm

Pretty sure after discussions with their agents this summer and early winter … Padres will know if they can (or want to) sign Soto and Kim at the price their agents will demand. So, maybe the trade decision is easier if you know they will walk as FA after 2024.

Can’t “replace” the talent of Soto or Kim … but their money could be leverage into upgrading a SP staff that, for now, looks as Musgrove (shoulder injury), Darvish (elbow injury and aging), with career minor leaguers in Avila, Waldron, and Morejon … then it drops off. That is a staff of a 90 loss team.

If the payroll drop is valid … not going to win with that staff even with Soto and Kim so what would be the point in keeping them? Just add some low cost adequate position players while betting on Machado - Tatis - Bogaerts to lead the offense with support from Pauley and Merrill, hopefully. Make a strong push on adding some ML quality SP.

If we do trade Soto, the Cubs would be interested and PCA would be a nice piece to make the trade around.

Well that would be a good get by the Padres.

Put the question in my head the chance that the Padres (with Boras) give another team a window to extend Soto as a precursor to a deal? A Soto signed to a long term deal should get a better return than one year and rolling the dice on re-signing.

One of those 72 hour windows after a deal is structured by the two teams? That might open up the teams in play for Soto looking beyond 2024.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 28, 2023, 5:37 am

The Cubs have another young outfielder I'd love to get....Owen Caissie.

🙂

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2023, 6:38 am

In looking ahead to 2024, need to evaluate the returning base … and for the offense the Padres have reason for optimism … using OPS as the point of comparison (OPS in MLB averages .735 in 2023) … 2023 vs 2022 (2021 for Tatis and Soto):

897 … 593 … +246 … C … Campusano

690 … 722 … -  33 … 1B … Cronenworth

747 … 708 … +. 39 … 2B … Kim

789 … 833 … -  44 … SS … Bogaerts

785 … 897 … -112 … 3B … Machado

929 … 989 … - 60 … LF … Soto

660 … 625 … + 35 … CF … Grisham

781 … 975 … -194 … RF … Tatis

—— … —— … ——- … DH …  some mix of part-time types with Carpenter, Nola, Sullivan, Batten, Azocar, Rosario plus non-roster prospects.

Sure, a lot more subtleties involved but the 2023 offense was middle of the the pack and really only Machado and Tatis have to return to past form to be the catalyst of an above average offense by producing in the middle of the order.

Always want to upgrade where possible … but holding pat is not a bad strategy while making the push on upgrading what is setting up as a disaster of a pitching staff.

Quote from fenn68 on September 28, 2023, 10:51 am

Acee notes that a “significant meeting” between Seidler, Melvin, Preller, and additional advisors will take place shortly after the conclusion of the regular season. The impending meeting, which will focus on an “internal review” the club has reportedly been conducting, figures to impact the club’s decision on whether or not to retain either or both men for the 2024 campaign.

That is from the MLBTradeRumors piece that includes a lot of other insight on the issues in play.

Maybe about two weeks before some clearer direction out of the club going forward.