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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1621 · February 9, 2024, 8:03 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2024, 6:39 amFrelick is definitely the guy to target over the others.
We don't need more free swingers....Frelicks' K rate is so much better than the other two.
I think I would take Wiemer 2nd due to his power potential.
Though I think I'd prefer Jarren Duran from Bos. because I think he's more ready "now".
Although I prefer Frelick … can’t see MILW moving him since he is slated to be an everyday starter and the Padres have nothing to offer MILW to offset that level of quality for 2024 on the ML roster … they are seeking pitching / low cost. Padres have “bodies” that fit that but not the quality to match Frelick.
Somewhat ambivalent to Mitchell or Wiemer … don’t see either as a long term starter. Michell is a LHH so maybe a plus in 2024 given the current line-up …but might become irrelevant when the LHH Merrill, Marsee, and Pauley are ready in 2025. On the flip side, Wiemer is a RHH so maybe less useful in 2024 but more so in 2025.
Bit worried about Wiemer’s high K% and all or nothing approach to hitting … plus hard to really evaluate his power transferring from MILW (and NL Central) to PETCO and the larger parks in the NL West. At the same time Mitchell’s also has hole in his hitting approach. I guess given the current Padres situation … take whichever you can get (if you can) for the lower end ML pitching that they can offer.
Hard to game out each team’s trading strategy but think Preller may have a problem dealing with a contender (at least as the other team thinks with the expanded playoffs) … basically they really need to have an “excess” OF / low cost (since Padres don’t seem to be prepared to take on even a moderate contract) and be willing to move that “excess” for the low end ML level pitching the Padres have to offer.
Then if a team is a clear non-contender Preller may find a trade partner but why would that team deal a low cost / long control player of any quality unless it is for a significant prospect … and that assumes that other team has an OF of enough ML quality to deal … basically someone projected better than the three internal prospects. Preller will not deal a significant prospect just to get a bridge to the internals.
I am falling into the near term being a process of scanning the waiver wire, DFA, and FA that have no home in a few weeks and get really desperate to sign for very little … use that mix as a bridge to the mid-season and do the call-up of the prospects.
Best the core 6 offensive players come out blazing along with the SP being effective … and keep the Padres “in the mix” to the trade deadline.
#1622 · February 9, 2024, 8:36 am
I said it last year when Profar left for FA and didn't find a team until very late....FA is like musical chairs...Players are hoping to find a chair before the music stops e.g. a job
Lots of guys are going to sign minor league deals with an invite or one year deals on a make good situation and try it again next year....supply and demand at work and there are two things that will keep a product from selling (player)...price and condition....guys will either drop their price or be on the beach watching and waiting.
#1623 · February 9, 2024, 9:00 am
From Jon Heyman's latest.
"The Red Sox are still fielding offers on star closer Kenley Jansen and others. They have a deep stash of outfield prospects, which has teams asking about Jarren Duran.
The Padres, seeking a lefty-hitting outfielder, are interested. And the Padres and Dodgers are among candidates for Jansen. But San Diego may be more interested in a starter like Hyun-Jin Ryu."
I would think the interest in Jansen would come in the context of taking on his salary to lower the acquisition cost of Duran.
https://nypost.com/2024/02/08/sports/where-top-remaining-mlb-free-agents-currently-stand/
#1624 · February 9, 2024, 9:37 am
Since we already have a fairly crowded bull pen and tight budget. Wonder if Preller could pull off a 3 team deal in where SD gets Duran (CF) and Burleson (1B/LF) and both LHH, STL gets Jansen, and BOS gets what pieces (MiL prospects?) they need to complete the deal?
#1625 · February 9, 2024, 10:09 am
I'm afraid Boston is going to want at least one of the Lesko-Snelling-Thorpe trio plus a couple of others, like either Brito or Vasquez, and maybe Iriarte or Mazur. To me, it would be too expensive prospect-wise even though I like the talent coming back. If we can avoid giving up one of the top 3, I'm for it.
#1626 · February 9, 2024, 11:03 am
Getting Duran would be “nice” … speed / some offense but so-so CF defense and not all that great an arm … not sure how much better he will eventually be than Marsee.
The Jansen part of the deal makes it a big question. Jansen is no longer the elite closer and has one year control at $16MM. Padres don’t seem to have (or want to spend) the money at the level. I guess a third team could take Jansen but same issue with any team wanting that contract (and give a return). Boston clearly wants to move on from Jansen … but not in a budget crunch as far as I can tell.
If Boston does not have a budget crunch but the Padres do … I guess a money balanced deal has to be considered or at least partially balanced. Boston could eat some money but that would up the player required in return. Would Boston take or SD offer: Suarez or Cronenworth … less AVV but longer commitment and given the financial position of SD that might make sense. A case for juggling the longer term plan for payroll / AAV.
Want to move into the twilight zone … Jansen and Duran for Bogaerts (who waives his no trade to return to Boston?) … Red Sox get major fan boost plus a key future piece and the Padres clear $25MM AAV starting in 2025 allowing money to extend Kim at SS and still have room under the CBT.
I am just not feeling it … again I like Duran but the complexity of a deal with Duran does not seem worth it.
#1627 · February 9, 2024, 1:31 pm
IMO we trade for Duran and have nothing to do with Jansen or we just go elsewhere.
No need for Jansen even if they pay most of his salary because then they're gonna want too much.
Also have seen the Ryu rumors....rumors are we are signing him at $11 mil
I guess if AJ wants one more legit SP for '24 to give time for Thorpe/Brito/Vasquez/Snelling etc to get another year in the minors I get it....but I'm not a big Ryu fan and also not a fan of signing any "rentals" right now.
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#1628 · February 9, 2024, 2:07 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2024, 1:31 pmIMO we trade for Duran and have nothing to do with Jansen or we just go elsewhere.
No need for Jansen even if they pay most of his salary because then they're gonna want too much.
Also have seen the Ryu rumors....rumors are we are signing him at $11 mil
I guess if AJ wants one more legit SP for '24 to give time for Thorpe/Brito/Vasquez/Snelling etc to get another year in the minors I get it....but I'm not a big Ryu fan and also not a fan of signing any "rentals" right now.
Some question as to the legitimacy of the “X” post of the Padres signing Ryu for $11.4MM. Not sure anyone thinks he will get anything close to even $10MM … his limited work in 2023 and a much diminished velocity make him a big question mark. Then add the Padres budget limit … that would be way way too much for the risk.
Did see on MLBTradeRumors his name included as someone the Padres have been in contact with … as were Lorenzen and Lauer. Lauer had a poor 2023 … injuries … lost velocity … BUT is at least still young (2 control years) and would expect available at a low cost to get a legit chance to start and build his market for the future. IF Lauer held a workout and showed his health / and some velo return, then might be a very good gamble for the price not only for his contribution to 2024 but at the same time free up some other bottom of the rotation options as trade chips for those illusive OF.
#1629 · February 9, 2024, 5:04 pm
Closers are a dime a dozen! F**k them! There are many major league arms that can get 3 outs without giving up multiple runs in one short inning. So absolutely NO on Jenson.
Suarez's days are numbered. No way he starts in SD with his contract.
Spoiler
#1630 · February 9, 2024, 5:07 pm
Has ANY team EVER gone into ST with only 2 OF on their 40 man???
Totally irresponsible. I expect AJ to be handed his walking papers sooner rather than later.