Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2024, 4:35 pm

From Shildt’s comments Machado appears ready to hit well before the end of ST but playing 3B may take a bit longer (or not).

No one is suggesting this but it is his throwing arm and Manny does make long hard throws for 3B … basically his signature defense asset … should we / they be concerned about either one hard throw or a repetitive series of hard throw re-injuring the elbow or that the throws no longer are as effect as they used to be? Longer that we think to rehab back to the old Manny even if he can throw?

If that is the future … any chance a Machado to 1B (rather than DH) makes more sense giving more options at DH. Could Cronenworth go to 3B? Or Bogaerts? Or Kim? I can’t see Manny being happy with a long time DH role.

Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2024, 4:26 pm

I understand we tend to think in the now (opening day roster) ... maybe with some view of the full season heading into a playoff roster. However, the Padres also consider 2025 and the 5 year plan when it comes to players, contracts, budget.

With all the unknowns with the Padres finances (eg TV deal, attendance drop potential for 2024, etc), locked in long term major cost contracts, but encouraged by a strong set of prospects ... the decision making process of add/deletes may reflect that 5 year plan as much (or more) than the 2024 needs.

My first assumption is that the Padres will NOT plan to exceed the CBT threshold and will keep a "cushion" if need mid-season to enhance a competitive roster but still remain under the threshold.

Second, to support the first, in 2024 enter no multi-year deals for any significant amount ... try to shoot for one year deals (or low low end like Go's).

In 2025 the first waive of top prospects arrive with offense from Merrill, Pauley, Marsee and pitching for Iriate, Thorpe, Mazur, Snelling, and Bergert. Need to keep the door open for them (low cost for 3-5 years if they are good) to keep a balance with the locked in major contracts and stay under the CBT.

Padres have four years of comparative stability with the big FA departing starting in 2028 (Musgrove, Suarez, Matsui, Wilson, and Peralta ... if he had not opted out earlier) ... the 2029 (Darvish and Campusano) ... then a whole new world to, if appropriate, to extend the currently arriving prospects.

Until then few are FA of any impact Higashioka (2025), maybe Peralta (2025) if he opts out, Go (2026), King (2026), * Hosmer * (2026), and De Los Santos (2027) ... all would be adding to the money available to deploy and maybe not that hard to replace at league minimum.

I did leave off Kim who I have to consider differently. Merrill, Pauley, and Marsee are coverage for the three current voids but if Kim goes via FA another is added with nor internal quality ready in 2025. Add that Kim is the best defense SS (Bogaerts is apparently willing to consider 2B) and nothing internally coming.

So suggesting that the Padres push to extend Kim (they already have the room under the CBT and will have more if the deal starts in 2025 ... with still a cushion). Go with the gambles of Merrill (LF), Marsee (CF), Pauley (DH) at league minimum but knowing their is a good cushion if one (or two) fail to meet expectations and deploy the funds more strategically to the need.

Also, keeping the cushion does allow the flexibility to do one (or more) of the early multi year deals (6-8 years) for the elite prospects (e.g. Merrill) where by averaging out the expected salary in the league minimum years with the high expectations of ARB years 5-6 and maybe the first two FA years) the AAV for CBT is lower near end allowing room for more costly moves in 2028-9 when some of the big pieces start to fall by the wayside. Keep in mind that all the current hot prospects with be in their latter ARB years in 2028-29.

So, possible that the Padres strategy on the next 4-5 years may be a driver of moves in 2024 ... and that could mean no major add and extensive use of the prospects ... then IF that plays out as a contender near the trade deadline ... a lot of payroll cushion of "rentals" to boost the roster for the playoff run ... dump the rentals for 2025 and engage more prospects (probably the pitchers).

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2024, 7:20 am

I'm beginning to think we keep Kim till the deadline and trade him if we are sellers....keep him if we are not....and he leaves after '24 and we give Merrill the SS job.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 5, 2024, 7:34 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 5, 2024, 7:20 am

I'm beginning to think we keep Kim till the deadline and trade him if we are sellers....keep him if we are not....and he leaves after '24 and we give Merrill the SS job.

 

Possible route … not likely trading him before the season given that just adds another void going into 2024 (and not getting a better ML player back in any deal that costs less). Maybe at the deadline but what kind of return for a defensive 1st INF for two months vs the potential value of a COMP Pick (assuming they make a QO).

Deals would have to be from a contender that has lost their SS … that is a likely a very limited (if any) set of teams. Padres are not just moving Kim to move Kim.

Side: getting some more recent comments suggesting Merrill’s defense (range, hands) may not be all that compelling as a SS. No idea really but at least some suggesting that he may not be the SS of the future … but his bat is the carry tool and is still the elite prospect. On the other hand, the Padres went with Bogaerts and his limited range … so maybe not a critical factor for the Padres.

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2024, 4:56 pm

Notice that almost all the arbitration decisions are being won by the players … sort of in line with the sea of over than expected cost of FA contracts.

Another factor in the Padres … with 3 voids and limited money … not in play even for the mid-range FA?

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2024, 4:57 pm

Gary Sanchez gets $7MM from the Brewers … again a bit over most estimates.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 8, 2024, 1:41 pm

I've seen a handful of reports bringing up the Brewers as a match for a trade. It seems like it's more just them connecting the dots than actual reporting of discussions. With Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio locked up they could look to move Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer or Sal Frelick. All 3 are CF capable and were recent top 100 types.

Wiemer played CF for them for most of the season. He's got a lot of raw power, a big arm and decent speed. He's got a lot of swing and miss to his game though. He struggled offensively and there's some thought that he profiles better in RF.

Frelick was playing CF for them later in the year. He's much more of a contact and speed guy. He was solid against RHP. He was bad against lefties in a small sample size. His minor league splits are pretty consistent.

Mitchell might have the most upside. He just can't stay on the field.

Frelick probably has the most value. Wiemer could be a potential platoon partner. Keeping them would give them some coverage if Chourio isn't ready to hit the ground running and/or let them give Yelich more DH days. Mitchell is probably the one they would be most willing to trade.

Quote from fenn68 on February 8, 2024, 3:21 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 8, 2024, 1:41 pm

I've seen a handful of reports bringing up the Brewers as a match for a trade. It seems like it's more just them connecting the dots than actual reporting of discussions. With Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio locked up they could look to move Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer or Sal Frelick. All 3 are CF capable and were recent top 100 types.

Wiemer played CF for them for most of the season. He's got a lot of raw power, a big arm and decent speed. He's got a lot of swing and miss to his game though. He struggled offensively and there's some thought that he profiles better in RF.

Frelick was playing CF for them later in the year. He's much more of a contact and speed guy. He was solid against RHP. He was bad against lefties in a small sample size. His minor league splits are pretty consistent.

Mitchell might have the most upside. He just can't stay on the field.

Frelick probably has the most value. Wiemer could be a potential platoon partner. Keeping them would give them some coverage if Chourio isn't ready to hit the ground running and/or let them give Yelich more DH days. Mitchell is probably the one they would be most willing to trade.

I could see that as a possibility with pitching going to MILW.

I would want: Frelick (L) - Mitchell (L) - Wiemer

They would want to trade: Wiemer - Mitchell (L) - Frelick (L)

I doubt Frelick is in play … too good a fielder / hitter just lacks power.

Both Michell and Wiemer has their issues with hitting but given the need of the Padres now … both would be useful. Boils down to what MILW wants.

In both cases some “adjustments” to their swings for them to be successful in the ML over the long haul but as it stands both could be in CF/LF and be better than Azocar or a void. Both 1st round draft picks and hit the Top 100 at some point … raw talent is there.

Mitchell may be the compromise.

Now MILW wants to contend in the NL Central (not unreasonable) and they need pitching be it SP or RP … can they build a deal around one (or two) of Avila / Waldron / Brito / Vasquez? Almost the same scenario as STL. Get the feeling this could be a multi-player trade.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2024, 6:39 am

Frelick is definitely the guy to target over the others.

We don't need more free swingers....Frelicks' K rate is so much better than the other two.

I think I would take Wiemer 2nd due to his power potential.

Though I think I'd prefer Jarren Duran from Bos. because I think he's more ready "now".