Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 8:38 am

We just don't know the implications of being out of compliance with the MLB required debt ratio ... and what it takes in the short run to be in compliance. Padres can't just ignore it. It is possible the $200MM+/- payroll is the short run moving part that gets them back in. Otherwise don't see the motivation of this ownership putting 2024 in real jeopardy. Should note that a $200MM payroll should still keep them in the top 10 payrolls for 2024.

So, for now I am assuming some near $200MM player payroll is a legit target. My back of the envelope calculations with all the returnees (including Soto) under contract or via arbitration is somewhere around $185MM (a lot of league minimum and low early arbitration). However, not only without all the FA but also without Wacha and Martinez (assumes options are declined).

Offense stays the same hoping this group returns to its historical levels with only minor league minimum tinkering for the bench ... maybe some betting on Pauley / Merrill filling some gaps. Fair baseline strategy. That puts all the focus on pitching ... primarily SP with Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez gone ... but maybe only $15-25MM to create 3-4 SP adds. That is not enough to build a playoff level staff unless they are very lucky or the offense is very very overpowering. When considering 3-4 SP ... consider that bad odds.

So, maybe not matter how good Soto is ... and very likely the Padres already know whether they will / can extend him (think Boras) ... the question becomes can the win with Soto and no pitching or are they better off trading Soto to clear $30MM for 2024 to deploy on SP while relying on the rest of the big money stars to carry the offense? Maybe in a Soto deal they can get at least one piece of value for 2024 along with an upside prospect.

Soto's $30MM plus the $15-25MM under the target sets up a pretty good pool around $50MM to fill in SP (and other holes). Plus potentially give coverage beyond 2024 since no clear wave of playoff quality pitching prospects on cusp of impact even in 2025 (other than Snelling) and Soto and Kim depart via FA.

Tough balance to "team" / future winning vs the individual talent but short timeframe.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 8:52 am

Again assuming a $200MM+/- payroll is a given ... even "slight" moves that clear payroll might allow for building a better 26 man roster by redeploying money. To that end:

1. (I know this is not going to be popular) but trade Kim while his value is high and "knowing" he will not be extended and a FA after 2024. Note his September has been poor and adds a concern that his outstanding mid-season was the anomaly and he will settle back to a lower level of production. Then layer one of the Padres top prospect (Merrill) is on the cusp of ML playing time and their former All-Star 2B Cronenworth is playing out of position give a lot a 2B coverage. Better off with the payroll savings and easier to get equivalent offense from a FA 1B and a lower cost?
2. Trade Grisham ... not getting anything in return but would clear about $4MM for use elsewhere. He too only has control in 2024-25 and for the second year in a row a sub-200 hitter and in 2023 has put himself on the Padres top 10 of strikeouts in a season (153 and counting). Can Azocar really be worse? Can they gamble on Marsee in 2024 not being worse? (not my favorite idea but) can they move Tatis to CF and find more production cheaply in RF?

Just additional avenues of debate that could make 2024 better (or worse) and the future better (or worse).

Quote from Randy Manese on September 27, 2023, 10:38 am

If you're talking about overall payroll reductions for 2024 then the elephant in the room has to be Soto.  Expect him to get close to 30M in arbitration and then 40+ million with a half billion dollar contract when he hits free agency.  The problem with Soto is who will be willing to make the trade to acquire him?  Has to be a big market team or a team that wants to make a statement to build around Soto for the next 10-15 years.  Boston?  White Sox?  What about the Angels?  Baltimore?  Texas?  It will be interesting to see who the bidders are for Ohtani and whether any of them would shift to Soto, who is much younger and could put up some obscene numbers in hitters parks.

A note on the poor September by Kim - he's been injured and trying to play despite those injuries.  I don't think his September numbers are reflective of the kind of season he has had and the value to the team Kim provides.  Most teams would love to steal him from the Padres if they were pitching the bad September numbers as indicative of Kim's trade value.  He's our best defensive middle infielder, our best base stealer and gives a lot of energy to this team.  Also, he's a Machado favorite, if that means anything.

I'd trade Soto for a couple of top prospects and maybe a solid bullpen arm and then sign Jung-hoo Lee for one third of the cost of Soto this year.   Money issue partly resolved for 2024 besides all the nickel and dimes things the team can do to cut costs.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 27, 2023, 11:16 am

I think Acee is almost certainly talking about strictly 2024 payroll and not luxury tax payroll when he throws out the 200m number. That lines up with how he's referenced payroll in the past and makes a pretty big difference.

He also said that payroll would drop last year and I think the debt situation is much ado about nothing. The debt limits are easy to work around. Lots of teams operate way beyond them and the league ignores it. The league isn't going to do anything unless it becomes a major problem like when The Mets lost a ton of money to Bernie Madoff or when the McCourt's fought over The Dodgers in their divorce.

I do think payroll will come down some. I don't think it will be as drastic as Acee is suggesting. The bottom line is we're going to need at least 3 starters and a couple relievers. They probably need to bring in a backup catcher and want to move on from Grisham as well. That's going to take some spending.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 11:54 am

I do think they will be buyers for Soto this winter ... knowing they are only getting one year at $30MM ... not a lot but good chance teams that are on the 2024 bubble of Wild Card (or Division championship) and need offense will be "interested". NYY should be the #1 player ... missed the playoffs and other than Judge zip in the OF and an overall below average offense. Put Soto's LH bat in Yankee Stadium could be a difference maker ... and given the NY fans they do need a splash move. In the same vein ... maybe Toronto who just is in the playoff but lacks LF production and LHH production ... and may want to keep Soto away from NYY. Actually both teams may view BALT as a one season wonder and even see the AL East in their sights.

Now will we be happy with the player return ... probably not ... but the primary benefit is to clear the $30MM and redeploy it while not ending up with anything for Soto after 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 11:59 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 27, 2023, 11:16 am

I think Acee is almost certainly talking about strictly 2024 payroll and not luxury tax payroll when he throws out the 200m number. That lines up with how he's referenced payroll in the past and makes a pretty big difference.

He also said that payroll would drop last year and I think the debt situation is much ado about nothing. The debt limits are easy to work around. Lots of teams operate way beyond them and the league ignores it. The league isn't going to do anything unless it becomes a major problem like when The Mets lost a ton of money to Bernie Madoff or when the McCourt's fought over The Dodgers in their divorce.

I do think payroll will come down some. I don't think it will be as drastic as Acee is suggesting. The bottom line is we're going to need at least 3 starters and a couple relievers. They probably need to bring in a backup catcher and want to move on from Grisham as well. That's going to take some spending.

Earlier this summer, Siedler was quoted as saying the current level of payroll is not sustainable and that he sees the Padres ending up just in the "upper 1/3rd" of payrolls ... I am estimating that $200MM+/- will sit them in the upper 1/3rd at around #8-10. Maybe the failure of 2023 (and big spending) just accelerated the payroll adjustment move ... especially if they see a real challenge to winning in 2024 (they will never admit that) given the  departing FA.

Quote from fenn68 on September 27, 2023, 12:14 pm

On Kim, not about him as an individual, but about building a 26 man roster longer term under a more "controlled" level of spending.

With Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth locked in on long term contract and Merrill an elite prospect on the come (with potentially Pauley / Rosario a 2B back-up option) ... Padres do have coverage for the INF.

With Kim a FA after 2024 and given his performance (and age) will command long term / big money deal ... likely larger than Cronenworth ... with payroll control on the horizon ... can (would) the Padres want to add another long term $15MM AAV commitment.

Similar to Soto, get something vs nothing for holding on to them for one more year and use their 2024 pay level on other needs.

Now understand I really like Kim and never under stood the extension of Cronenworth vs Kim or the signing of Bogaerts when Kim was a plus SS ... but they did and that has to have an impact on the future for Kim.

Look to MIA as a trading partner ... on the bubble of the NL Wild Card with maybe the least productive SS slot in MLB ... plus the have what the Padres need in pitching.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 27, 2023, 12:53 pm

If you were looking to reduce the salaries of Kim and Grisham, I could easily see a package deal with MIA for the both of them. They could easily put Chisolm back at 2B, move Arraez to 1B, and then have two GG caliber players in CF and SS with Kim and Grisham.

Should be able to net a young ML ready SP, a real good prospect, and a wild card prospect for both of them.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 27, 2023, 12:57 pm

I agree with Fenn, I think the most realistic trade partner for Soto would be the NYY, for all the reasons that he lists.

I would imagine that package would be fairly decent in return to SD, especially considering Soto's production away from Petco Park. His away numbers are, .312 BA, .423 OBP, .617 SLG, with an OPS of 1.040. You put him Yankee stadium for 81 games, not to mention the small ball parks in BOS and BAL, and he becomes the best slugger and hitter in baseball. Maybe even better than Ohtani.