Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 27, 2024, 5:51 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2024, 4:55 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2024, 4:02 pm

Anybody for a little Cabbage?

Trey Cabbage just DFA’d by Angels.

26yrs old

Left Handed 1B/DH

Last year in AAA:

.306/.379/596

30 HR

32 SB

The problem?

He strikes out “A lot”.

He’s basically Joey Gallo with speed and without the good OF defense.

 

Not sure those stats are a good indicator … he was in the PCL and, I think, Salt Lake City … his early career was not all that impressive.

He hit 10 HRs and put up a 1.098 OPS in 30 games in the Southern League in 2022. 27 HRs and an .881 between 2 levels in the Twins system in 2021. It seems like he might have figured something out during the lost COVID season. He can play 1B and corner OF. It looks like his splits were pretty extreme in the past. It can't hurt to take a look. Maybe you get lucky and find a cheap bat on the strong side of a platoon. Throw him in the mix with the likes of Oscar Mercado, Calvin Mitchell and Bryce Johnson.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 27, 2024, 5:54 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 27, 2024, 5:46 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2024, 4:02 pm

Anybody for a little Cabbage?

Trey Cabbage just DFA’d by Angels.

26yrs old

Left Handed 1B/DH

Last year in AAA:

.306/.379/596

30 HR

32 SB

The problem?

He strikes out “A lot”.

He’s basically Joey Gallo with speed and without the good OF defense.

 

Why not take a flyer on him but if the angels gave up on him…just saying

Does he have options left ?

 

Fangraphs says he has 2 option years left.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2024, 6:36 pm

Somebody will give him a chance…why not us?

Not many have more of a need for OF/1B  that have power and hit left handed.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on January 27, 2024, 11:10 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2024, 6:36 pm

Somebody will give him a chance…why not us?

Not many have more of a need for OF/1B  that have power and hit left handed.

 

I continue to be absolutely flabbergasted that we are having the same kind of conversations now that we would have had in any given offseason between losing campaigns under John Moores. This team fuxked up so, so bad.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 28, 2024, 1:54 am

Agreed.

It seems like signing Bogaerts and then extending Cronenworth ( within a few weeks?) has REALLY put the payroll in a bad light for the foreseeable future.

Obviously getting a new local tv deal would help.....

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2024, 4:21 am

Quote from WindsorUK on January 28, 2024, 1:54 am

Agreed.

It seems like signing Bogaerts and then extending Cronenworth ( within a few weeks?) has REALLY put the payroll in a bad light for the foreseeable future.

Obviously getting a new local tv deal would help.....

Or the extensions of Machado (the most expensive) and Darvish (aging pitcher) last winter.

Sort of looking at the current situation as a product of a failed “go all in” strategy for 2023. Even early last season the Padres (Siedler) was saying that they could not sustain that payroll level and would settle in at about where they seem to be headed for 2024. They are still going to be around the 10th highest payroll.

The strategy may not have been all that bad … IF the big money stars performed to their history (blame injury, whatever). A roster at what was expected performance would have made a long playoff run (they only missed by two games) and could have challenged for the World Series (on paper better than AZ or TEX). Had that played out … probably not having so much concern about 2024 with a major winning core returning.

Back to IFs … Padres don’t really need that much to contend in 2024 IF Machado can return to his historical level and Musgrove / Darvish can pitch for a full season at their history. The core roster can be strong … better than most teams. This and being under the tax threshold with money to deploy.

No question they need to fill some voids but last year going into 2023 we did not have the highest hopes for Kim, Wacha, Lugo, or even Snell being what he turned out to be. Can they get similar surprises from King, Vasquez, Brito, Matsui, Merrill, Marsee, and Pauley? Does Preller still have moves for filling the voids (does not have to be “stars” but just ML quality)?

If we look forward, Padres are positioned with this elite core, the presumed wave of blue chip prospects coming for 2025 and only having Kim and Higashioka FA after this season … Padres can easily be a playoff team and remain around the current payroll with “tinkering” adjustments.

It is a “glass half full” day.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2024, 5:08 am

Since the Padres are locked into Machado, Bogaerts, and Tatis for the next decade … all for big money … it will be interesting to see which turn out to be good or bad signings in short run and then in the long run (and how to balance the good years vs the bad).

I put Tatis in a different category but Machado vs Bogaerts could be an interesting debate going forward since both are about the same age and have successful pasts. With any luck we will be thrilled with both Machado and Bogaerts for the foreseeable future.

I am not as put off by the Bogaerts’ signing as most. 2023 may not be as reflective of Bogaerts (wrist injury) or Machado (elbow injury) yet Bogaerts delivered a 4.4 WAR and Machado delivered a 3.5 WAR. Looking at the past three seasons … both averaged around a 5.0 WAR. Not that many players can produce at that level over a 3 year period. Add Tatis who could be better than either and a great core to build on with AAVs locked in as a hedge against what clearly is a future of rising salaries for elite players.

Actually looking at the past three seasons … Machado and Bogaerts are very very close in production … in about the same number of games / PA … wRC+, dWAR, WAR are similar. Machado has more power but Bogaerts has better BA/OBP.

Side: it will be interesting to see whose body breaks down first and ends up at 1B/DH or when both need to be relegated to 1B/DH roles. At what point are aging / late 30s SS and 3B a liability in the field? Should be good for the next 5 year though.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 28, 2024, 7:12 am

Even though most of us are focused on the upcoming 2024 season, I'm peeking ahead into 2026 as the next milestone to judge the prospective level of competitiveness of the team.   By 2026, we should know whether or not our top prospects are going to turn into possible all-star players or just placeholders until the next better player comes along or is traded for.  By 2026, a TV deal for sure has been worked out and the naming rights to PETCO expire - both big money infusions into the cash flow.  By 2026, the current CBA expires, which likely will see a rise in the CBT levels to accommodate the ever-increasing salaries for players who are not superstars and possibly more meaningful penalties for teams which seem to have an unlimited flow of money to tilt the odds of success very much in their favor.  And finally, in 2026 we have NO MORE PAYMENTS TO ERIC HOSMER!

So while the 2024 and 2025 season can be thought of as transition years, even though we expect to be competitive with our corps of players and adding as much value as we can under the CBT, I think by 2026 the Padres may be one of the top teams in the league IF we have just a little bit of luck and avoid long drawn out injuries.  Can't wait to see what our prospects do in the minors this year to make our future possibilities come true.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2024, 9:25 am

Did some numbers for 2023 as maybe some reason for hope (or despair) based on wRC+ performance …. 2021-2 … 2023 first half … 2023 second half for the players that started the season in 2023:

1. Tatis … 158 vs 138 - 86 … huge drop in the second half which might be attributed to his missing season (we hope) but if he can rebound near his 158 level … covers a lot of offensive problems

2. Machado … 138 vs 109 - 120 … under history but with the elbow injury so should expect more production here

3. Bogaerts … 131 vs 107 - 136 … first half transition to SD and wrist was a problem but second half back to expectations

4. Kim … 94 vs 114 - 109 … has he really developed so as to continue that improvement?

5. Cronenworth … 113 vs 91 - 95 … at least some improvement in the second half, sort of a push with Kim.

The big question will the expected improvement of Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado offset the departure of

6. Soto … 154 vs 150 - 162?

Will the “new guys” add more than the dearly departed:

7. Grisham … 94 vs 97 - 81 … note his 2023 defense was somewhat average so can Marsee be as good overall?

8, Nola … 94 vs 36 - gone … Campusano / Higashioka are a clear upgrade.

9. Carpenter … 125 vs 77 - gone / Cruz … 106 vs 85 - gone … not a big hurdle for one of Merrill, Marsee, or Pauley to cover … actually Batten or Rosario may do better.

I left off the mid-season fill of Sanchez since not part of the initial plan and the easy come easy go cluster of Dahl, Engel, Odor, Cooper, Choi (probably some I don’t remember) who did little to help the team make the playoffs … and can be replicated in 2024 by a different cluster of fillers.

Could be better offense with Grisham - Nola - Carpenter - Cruz out and Campusano - Merrill - Marsee - Pauley in (before even some final tinkering) … the bench mark from 2023 is very low. Ups in Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts could well offset Soto who despite the stats was not a game changer across the season.

Preller could be very close with just some minor (no harm) tinkering with the last offensive adds.