Quote from Randy Manese on September 22, 2023, 3:30 pm

Isn't it better that the television rights to the Padres' games are up for some competitive bidding?  With the composition of their roster, they should have a large international plus domestic market.  That could bring in far more money overall than what they were receiving for their broadcast rights the past couple of years.

I look at selling shares as a positive development, meaning other people want to jump on the bandwagon and bring San Diego a winner.  I'd be extremely surprised if Seidler relinquished majority control of the team and, therefore, he is still the money behind all the payroll decisions.

I don't know if cutting payroll is the right terminology - it may be maximizing a payroll number, whatever that number is.  We avoid costs by not signing Snell and Hader and there are a slew of other FA or arbitration eligibles or even not exercising the team option alternatives that we can take if we just want to dump salary - Pomeranz, Garcia, Profar, Sanchez, R Hill, Choi, Cooper, Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, T Hill, Grisham, Nola, Barlow, Morejon and even Soto (although that would be extremely foolish not to get at least some prospects for him).

I think when a team has a bad year, there will always be finger-pointing and rumors of dissension.  Seems these things all go away with winning and I remember how optimistic everyone was before the season began and then the WBC involvement and injuries curtailed a hot start by the team.  We didn't get the overly optimistic boost from Fernando returning to the line-up after his  injuries and suspension and had a lot of close game bullpen failure or failure to hit in the clutch; hard to believe we couldn't win more than 3 games in a row until the season was almost over.  With a little roster tweaking and a return to good health by key players this is very much a playoff team, so I'm not as pessimistic as some that the Padres organization can not get it done.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 7:14 pm

Not sure the MLB constraints of individual teams scope of their TV contracts. MLB is not going to allow anything that encroaches on the MLB.TV package, encroaching on other teams’ TV markets, and have some rules on international broadcasting to international markets.

So, probably we are only looking at a regional SD TV market as defined by MLB. Without the Regional Sport Networks to step in (they have been unprofitable) … what are the options?

Back to a local station picking up the local rights (probably don’t have the money to sign a big deal), Padres building their own network to sell directly to providers (expensive to create with risk of being able to get a return), … work out a new deal with MLB to maybe get some money and have the games on MLB.TV without local blackout.

Since it is not only SD that has this problem … MLB has to be working on a bigger strategy that fits all … question as to when that new vision is implemented.

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The key point on the new investors was their apparent reluctance to agree to calls on putting in more money for operations. It is sort of an everyone or no one on a joint ownership structure. So, if they don’t (or can’t) put in extra operating cash and the revenues are down from TV and revenue sharing … expenses need to drop (just don’t know how much)

Basically a lot of unknowns … but fair to assume not the business as conducted over the past few years since Siedler took over from Fowler.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 25, 2023, 6:37 pm

An interesting blurb on MLBTR, that not only that SD could/will look to lower payroll and that it might not be Preller making the decisions.

They mention that it is an almost certainty that neither Hader or Snell will be resigned, and that Soto may be traded to help getting down to the $200M± mark to start 2024.

Finally it mentions that Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Tatis, Musgrove, and Darvish should be safe.

Time to let the GM/PBO rumors fly.

Quote from fenn68 on September 25, 2023, 7:51 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 25, 2023, 6:37 pm

An interesting blurb on MLBTR, that not only that SD could/will look to lower payroll and that it might not be Preller making the decisions.

They mention that it is an almost certainty that neither Hader or Snell will be resigned, and that Soto may be traded to help getting down to the $200M± mark to start 2024.

Finally it mentions that Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Tatis, Musgrove, and Darvish should be safe.

Time to let the GM/PBO rumors fly.

Sort of depends how the Padres are defining “payroll”. I will assume they mean cash as opposed to the AAV for the luxury tax. (Side if they get to around $200MM cash they will be under the CBT lowest threshold).

Have to hedge a bit though … sure the payroll for the 26 man but do they consider the money for the minor league players on the 40 man … the cash for Hosmer … the cash for benefits,  Cash is cash … so probably all of the above.

Under the all in assumption and with Soto, Wacha on the club option, Martinez on the player option, Carpenter on the player option and all the FA gone … somewhere near $232MM. However if they don’t include Hosmer / benefits … about $210MM. So a big IF. However, CASH IS CASH so a starting point of $232MM seems the most likley.

IF it is $232MM trading Soto would do the trick or NOT take the club option on Wacha and see if Wacha and Martinez turn down their player options which would get them down to about $210MM. Padres will know that part right after the season and might alter the decision on Soto.

The first tough call will be on Wacha and Martinez … with Snell and Lugo gone as FA and not much internal … almost have to retain both … that would spell the end for Soto. Padres might  know the plan for Soto before the option decisions … apparently they had meetings with Boras on a potential extension for Soto and likely know Boras’ position and since an extension was not signed … good chance no extension is forthcoming in 2024.

From a team perspective for 2024 … do the Padres need Wacha and Martinez (given the lack of pitching and replacing them will not likely reduce payroll) OR Soto (with the hoped rebound of Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, et al)? Does not look as though they can everything and adding FA will have to be “low end”. Do they trade Soto and pass on Wacha and go under $200MM to create a pool for minor FA signings to at least cover all the slots with “better” veterans?

Could this scenario have been part of the reason the Padres accelerated all the prospects to AA mid-season? Maybe we do see Pauley - Merrill - Marsee - Snelling - Bogaerts really get a shot to start 2024 with the Padres.

If the $200MM payroll is reality, gong to be a very interesting winter and maybe even a more interesting ST. I guess the reality of the 3rd highest payroll in MLB (along with the cash penalties) challenged by the loss of TV revenue in 2024 and no longer (as I understand) receiving revenue sharing (maybe even paying) adds up to a LOT of cashl

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2023, 10:00 am

An additional comment leading to the lower payroll push:

"In part because they are out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio, according to multiple sources, the plan is to go into 2024 with player commitments of around $200 million."

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2023, 10:07 am

FYI from the Law Insider:

Debt Service Coverage means that for every $1.00 of debt service required to be paid there must be $1.15 of Net Operating Income available.

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I guess the loss of TV revenue and revenue sharing lowered the revenue enough to expose the high operating expenses. The cash penalties added to the payroll just is a double hit for that spending ... makes sense going under the CBT penalty level.

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2023, 10:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2023, 10:07 am

FYI from the Law Insider:

Debt Service Coverage means that for every $1.00 of debt service required to be paid there must be $1.15 of Net Operating Income available.

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I guess the loss of TV revenue and revenue sharing lowered the revenue enough to expose the high operating expenses. The cash penalties added to the payroll just is a double hit for that spending ... makes sense going under the CBT penalty level.

No idea the nature of the debt structure but an additional factor could be the interest expense has gone way up if either debt is rolling over (or has some flexible rate). For years the interest rate was very low but over the past year+ the interest rate on debit has gone to one of the highest rates in a long time.

So could be getting squeezed in both directions ... operating income down and interest costs up.

Also may explain in part selling shares of the club ... probably adds equity to reduce debt (and interest costs).

Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2023, 12:08 pm

Continuing on the "follow the money" line of thinking in trying to lower expenses:

1. might we see some front office / baseball operations personnel ... especially the more expensive but marginally valued people ... let go?
2. might we see some coaches (Padres have a lot) let go ... focusing on the ones whose contracts run out after the season ... create a leaner less expensive staff (maybe worse maybe better)
3. likely the do NOT drop Preller or Melvin who are still under contract past 2023 and would have to pay them AND their replacements ... and a lot for anyone considered veteran quality.

Addressing those costs would allow a bit more for player salaries.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 27, 2023, 7:23 am

I know that it was written on MLBTR how SD wants to get closer to $200M payroll next season, I just dont see how they can get there next season and keep Soto. By CBT AAV from Spotrac website, I have with guaranteed contracts for Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, Suarez, Kim, Carpenter, and the dead money for Hosmer at a total of $164.5M±.

That does not include any option contracts for Martinez, Wacha, or Lugo. Nor does it include arb raises for Soto, Grisham, or Barlow.

And after last nights game, and his last 30 days, I just dont see how you can trade away Soto. Yes I know his Petco numbers still pale in comparison to his road numbers, but man can he carry this team at times.

I really believe more than ever now; even with as decent season he had, the Bogaerts signing is going to haunt SD for a long time.