Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 12:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2024, 11:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 10:34 am

 

Not opposed to moving Avila but would the package change if instead they used Wilson or De Los Santos? Do idea if they are valued more or less. More importantly, who does STL prefer … likely what gives them the most impact in 2024.

The main reason that I did not suggest De Los Santos was because IIRC De Los Santos was a waiver claim. And with STL having a lesser record than SD, it would seem they could have claimed him if they wanted him before SD could.

Base thought though, is that Carlson should be had for a mid level RP and a lower level prospect. Not too much to pay for a CF that help SD this season.

Actually De Los Santo came via the trade for Scott Barlow … had a very good 2023 and has three more control years (2024 at a low $1.2MM). For a team like STL that needs more RP and has an OF excess with Carlson apparently the odd man out … a De Los Santos - Carlson is pretty close based on 2023. Will admit Carlson has more upside but if STL is serious about contending in 2024 they may punt on the upside potential of a bench / minor league piece for a RP who may deliver 70 games and an ERA in the low 3s.

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The one problem with the baseball trade value simulations is it can’t take into account the needs of a team at the point of the trade. If Carlson has more long term value but sits on the bench while the STL pen gets hammered … not good for STL. Flip that logic and Padres have no CF … so moving a vaulted RP but with alternatives helps the team now.

I also have a lot of skepticism about the future value on prospects being match with ML player with ML track records (easier to game out value).

Have to consider each team’s needs / strategy / alternatives in moment … often that makes for a trade not supported by BTV (or similar). A STL-SD deal could be one such situation.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2024, 12:13 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on January 22, 2024, 12:03 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2024, 11:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 10:34 am

 

Not opposed to moving Avila but would the package change if instead they used Wilson or De Los Santos? Do idea if they are valued more or less. More importantly, who does STL prefer … likely what gives them the most impact in 2024.

The main reason that I did not suggest De Los Santos was because IIRC De Los Santos was a waiver claim. And with STL having a lesser record than SD, it would seem they could have claimed him if they wanted him before SD could.

Base thought though, is that Carlson should be had for a mid level RP and a lower level prospect. Not too much to pay for a CF that help SD this season.

For what it's worth, we acquired De Los Santos from the Guardians in exchange for Barlow.

Thank you, I confused him with Patino who was the waiver wire claim.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2024, 12:17 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 12:10 pm

 

Actually De Los Santo came via the trade for Scott Barlow … had a very good 2023 and has three more control years (2024 at a low $1.2MM). For a team like STL that needs more RP and has an OF excess with Carlson apparently the odd man out … a De Los Santos - Carlson is pretty close based on 2023. Will admit Carlson has more upside but if STL is serious about contending in 2024 they may punt on the upside potential of a bench / minor league piece for a RP who may deliver 70 games and an ERA in the low 3s.

Thank you for the correction on De Los Santos, confused him with Patino.

So yes, maybe they prefer De Los Santos over Avila, Wilson, or ???. Still, we are talking about a RP arm for a CFer. I would trade one of most of our RP arms for an everyday player. It still seems like a trade that would work for both sides.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 22, 2024, 12:26 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 12:10 pm

The one problem with the baseball trade value simulations is it can’t take into account the needs of a team at the point of the trade. If Carlson has more long term value but sits on the bench while the STL pen gets hammered … not good for STL. Flip that logic and Padres have no CF … so moving a vaulted RP but with alternatives helps the team now.

I also have a lot of skepticism about the future value on prospects being match with ML player with ML track records (easier to game out value).

Have to consider each team’s needs / strategy / alternatives in moment … often that makes for a trade not supported by BTV (or similar). A STL-SD deal could be one such situation.

I get what you are talking about with BTV its no where near perfect in player valuation. As I have said in the past, many times I will put in a trade that really happens (Soto trade) and that site will say that trade would be rejected. It does come down to the real GMs needs. However, for someone that doesnt follow every teams MiL system it is a nice tool to use for a start.

Everyone will value each player slightly different, based on who they root for, where they live, what type of player they like, etc.. This site seems to be unbiased, so its a base to look at trades. Then I try to balance it out with team needs on both sides of the trade, and then other prospect sources, usually MLB.com to try to come up with balanced trades.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 22, 2024, 2:01 pm

Astros just DFA'd Matt Gage, LH RP, to make room for Hader.  If no other club bites, Padres may want to take a chance on Gage to add another lefty to the bullpen mix.  Could surprise!

Quote from WindsorUK on January 22, 2024, 2:47 pm

Is Stanley Jefferson available? How about Rupert Jones? Or perhaps Jerry Mumphrey? I'm sure ALL would be better options than we currently have( which is nothing)

Quote from sportwarrior on January 22, 2024, 3:29 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 22, 2024, 2:47 pm

Is Stanley Jefferson available? How about Rupert Jones? Or perhaps Jerry Mumphrey? I'm sure ALL would be better options than we currently have( which is nothing)

I'd settle for Ben Johnson and Jay Payton at this point.

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 5:08 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 22, 2024, 2:01 pm

Astros just DFA'd Matt Gage, LH RP, to make room for Hader.  If no other club bites, Padres may want to take a chance on Gage to add another lefty to the bullpen mix.  Could surprise!

Would be surprised he clears waivers … not great and 30 with minimal ML work BUT a LHRP at league minimum is worth a shot if room on the roster.

Actually may have multiple waiver claims, so might require a minor trade to get him.

Quote from fenn68 on January 22, 2024, 5:19 pm

Pirates sign LHRP Chapman for $10.5MM … more than the guess of around $7-8MM.

That really leaves little left in the RP FA … and clearly if they are any good their price is now even higher.

So, loop back to the Padres dangling a ML RP in front of STL for their back-up CF Carlson … just might have more appeal for STL.