Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2024, 5:15 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 12, 2024, 4:02 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-international-prospect-rankings-and-scouting-reports/

Fangraphs has the Padres signing their #24 ranked Intl prospect Humberto Cruz for $700k.

SP from Mexico

Many ranked below him getting much more $.

This will be interesting on Monday (or soon thereafter)

Padres have only $4.650MM in international pool allocation due to the tax penalties.

Fangraphs has DeVries signing for $4.4MM and Cruz for $0.7MM … that does not fit.

Either DeVries is taking in “discount” to sign, Cruz (or DeVries) is not signing … at least now, or Preller has a trade set-up to get bonus pool money (now or coming soon).

Either way this will be an “all in” approach and hope the scouting department is finding some under the contract level that counts in the limit players ($10,000) that are hidden gems.

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2024, 5:35 am

If not part of a major trade, who might Preller trade to get that extra international allocation (has to be in $250K increments and I think the max he can add is around $2.5-3.0MM … but not likely he needs or wants the maximum).

Remember the team trading the allocation is really not giving up anything except a paper allocation … so if not a team that is all that motivated by international signs and getting a current prospect is more exciting to them for essentially “free”. Consider a team with a $5.6MM allocation who can get the signings the really want for $4.6MM may not see that last $1MM yielding much and would be better off with a minor league prospect.

Would a team … somewhat tight on money … not want to spend internationally … trade the allocation … get a “ body” in the minors at the cost of a minor league salary? Probably yes … and probably not holding for an elite prospect.

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2024, 10:15 am

Most have been really down on Cronenworth (and his contact) after the ill fated 2023 move to 1B … but that may be more a Padres FO problem than a failure of Cronewworth. Maybe it is too premature to just try to trade him for zip (or eat some contract) … rather the focus maybe should return him to 2B … he is still only 30 … actually had a good July/Aug and hit better as a 2B.

I can see … at least to some extent … the contract they gave him last winter but the shift to 1B was the real mis-calculation.

Over the 2 years (2021-22) as a 2B … Cronenworth ranked 3rd in WAR (behind Altuve and Semien), #6 in wRC+, and #7 in dWAR … basically an outstanding blend of offense and defense for a 2B. $11-12MM for that could be considered a bargain over the next few years … for a 2B.

If the Padres are not going to bring back Kim for 2025 … maybe it would be more strategic in 2024 and for the future to return Cronenworth to 2B … convert Kim to super utility or maybe OF (or trade him for an OF or 1B). Just to re-establish Cronenworth sit him and keep him at 2B … then make Kim the bouncing ball with starting at 3B while Machado recovers then wherever as needed.

If the FO buys into that … it may alter their FA/trade strategy with a greater eye on adding a 1B.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2024, 8:16 pm

This is what I would do.

As long as a 1B/DH type is added…..or two.

Kim can rotate to 3B/SS/2B…..3B to start the season it seems…..Crone plays 2nd with Turner/Hoskins/Cron/Cooper at 1B.

Manny may DH 30% of the season overall.Even after cleared to field I could see him getting more breaks this year.

Who else is playing 3rd if not Kim?

Batten?

Another reason it’s hard to see him traded….he’s slated as starting 3B and could play 50-60 games there in ‘24.

Unless we were to add a guy like Justin Turner who could play 3B/1B/DH

 

 

 

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 14, 2024, 12:51 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2024, 10:15 am

Most have been really down on Cronenworth (and his contact) after the ill fated 2023 move to 1B … but that may be more a Padres FO problem than a failure of Cronewworth. Maybe it is too premature to just try to trade him for zip (or eat some contract) … rather the focus maybe should return him to 2B … he is still only 30 … actually had a good July/Aug and hit better as a 2B.

I can see … at least to some extent … the contract they gave him last winter but the shift to 1B was the real mis-calculation.

Over the 2 years (2021-22) as a 2B … Cronenworth ranked 3rd in WAR (behind Altuve and Semien), #6 in wRC+, and #7 in dWAR … basically an outstanding blend of offense and defense for a 2B. $11-12MM for that could be considered a bargain over the next few years … for a 2B.

If the Padres are not going to bring back Kim for 2025 … maybe it would be more strategic in 2024 and for the future to return Cronenworth to 2B … convert Kim to super utility or maybe OF (or trade him for an OF or 1B). Just to re-establish Cronenworth sit him and keep him at 2B … then make Kim the bouncing ball with starting at 3B while Machado recovers then wherever as needed.

If the FO buys into that … it may alter their FA/trade strategy with a greater eye on adding a 1B.

I don't really think we can put Cronenworth's struggles on the move to 1B. He had a really good June and solid August in 2022. He struggled the rest of the season all while playing 2B. His second half numbers weren't very far off his 2023 numbers. He did hit better at 2B last year in a small sample size. The same thing could be said at 1B in other seasons.

He recovered a bit last season, but he's had a concerning decline against fastballs and the sweeper revolution seems to be giving him trouble too.

From a defensive standpoint I think there's a case to be made for leaving him at 1B too. He was very good at 2B. However, Kim is amongst the best defenders in the game. I don't want him to move around to accommodate Cronenworth when everyone is healthy. The other solution that's been thrown around is moving Bogaerts to 1B. He's a better athlete than Cronenworth. He played a solid defensive SS last year. I'm not sure Cronenworth could do the same. With Bogaerts having zero experience at 1B moving him there would likely just shift the problem rather than solve it. He's also expressed some reluctance at the idea of moving off the middle infield. Jake should get plenty of time at 2B while Manny is limited.Maybe there's a happier medium where Manny and Bogaerts get more DH time which let's Jake play more 2B when Manny starts playing the field again. If they're all in the field I think there's a case to be made for leaving Jake at 1B.

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2024, 2:02 pm

I know it is a bit of a fool’s game to make 2024 playoff calls at this point before the season but that does not stop a number of the odds makers and other site doing so based on the current rosters.

I a surprise to me … most have the Padres neck and neck with some other teams for a Wild Card slots (LAD are far and away the NL West champ). Arguable a 2-3 game difference over 162 game slate may make the difference. Considering the Padres have no CF, LF, DH of ML quality at this point … questions at #4 and #5 SP … not sure what these odds makers seeing other than the core returning to “normal” and some better “luck” in 2024.

Even with only about $20-25MM to use for upgrades … that could be more enough to add sufficient wins to make the playoffs (assuming the others stand pat). A bonus would come from any prospect that turns into a 2024 upgrade over who they see as filling the holes.

Preller does have a chance pull this off … even with the budget limit and at this point a pretty slim array of FA hitters that can be relied upon. Three slot to fill to augment the core six (don’t trade Kim) … he will have to be “flexible” sorting among the options based who is willing to sign with the Padres … relative prices … and constructing a complete and effective starting 9.

I guess it is not looking so much at the individual as it is looking at the impact of the pack of three …maybe going with a less first option to afford a better second and third. To that end, filling CF may be the hardest to address effectively … just not a lot of options to rely on beyond Taylor (if you think he can still be a full time CF). On the other hand, 1B/DH maybe have more options (maybe not great but more). Where does he gamble?

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2024, 2:25 pm

Considering the above … and the following:

1. Once Machado is healthy for 3B … based on a “normal” season … Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Cronenworth, and Tatis play virtually every game (think around 150+). Based on what we have seen … not would take kindly to being use as the DH more than the absolute minimum.

2. Adding a productive 1B/DH should be more affordable than adding an equivalent level of production out of a CF add (if you could which the cannot).

3. Enter Kim … as a 2B/SS/3B he was above average defense at all three (result gold glove utility player). Given that profile suggested he could be a super utility guy in his last season to accommodate Croneworth to 2B … add a 1B/DH. I will consider a modification … Kim instead of become super utility make Kim the CF (maybe LF). An INF to OF move worked for Tatis in SD and Edman to CF in STL. Kim is a super athlete and has been fine with position shift in the INF … should work. Did look at his offense in 2022-23 and that would rank as a Top 10 hitting CF plus keep him in the line-up every day. Thinking he would be better than any other option the Padres have at hand.

4. Sign Profar as that super utility guy (9th bat in the line-up) for less than $5MM. Then $15-20MM to add a LF and a 1B … that could land a couple of “decent bats” (or one very good bat and one more a supportive bat).

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 14, 2024, 6:08 pm

Asked the same question earlier viz a viz Myers, but does Joey Votto have anything left?  Is he another Cruz or Carpenter or does he have enough to be a solid part-timer at 1b/DH?  What about Jared Walsh - minor league contract with invitation to spring training?  I still like Cooper but it may take more than we want to pay for another RH bat in the line-up.  To me Profar, switch-hitter, is an obvious add as super-utility.   A CF that can contribute on both sides of the ball will be hard to find with the money we have left, so my choice is go for the cheapest best defensive guy that's out there - probably Jankowski.

On another matter, it will be interesting to see who the Padres trade away to try to get some extra money for their international signings.  Hope it is one of those borderline guys who have no options left or someone in the minors that has potentially awesome power but a low hit tool - like Mears or Doersching - or a pitcher with potentially outstanding stuff but can't find the plate - like Collett or even Paplham.   I'd prefer to give up someone from the former group vice the latter.  Tomorrow is De Vries day!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 14, 2024, 7:51 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2024, 2:25 pm

Considering the above … and the following:

1. Once Machado is healthy for 3B … based on a “normal” season … Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Cronenworth, and Tatis play virtually every game (think around 150+). Based on what we have seen … not would take kindly to being use as the DH more than the absolute minimum.

2. Adding a productive 1B/DH should be more affordable than adding an equivalent level of production out of a CF add (if you could which the cannot).

3. Enter Kim … as a 2B/SS/3B he was above average defense at all three (result gold glove utility player). Given that profile suggested he could be a super utility guy in his last season to accommodate Croneworth to 2B … add a 1B/DH. I will consider a modification … Kim instead of become super utility make Kim the CF (maybe LF). An INF to OF move worked for Tatis in SD and Edman to CF in STL. Kim is a super athlete and has been fine with position shift in the INF … should work. Did look at his offense in 2022-23 and that would rank as a Top 10 hitting CF plus keep him in the line-up every day. Thinking he would be better than any other option the Padres have at hand.

4. Sign Profar as that super utility guy (9th bat in the line-up) for less than $5MM. Then $15-20MM to add a LF and a 1B … that could land a couple of “decent bats” (or one very good bat and one more a supportive bat).

 

We don't know how long Manny is going to be limited for. Kim is likely the guy at 3B as long as he is. Going to CF would be a much bigger transition than moving between 2B/SS/3B. I don't doubt that he could figure it out given enough time. The season opening in Korea lessens the amount of time he could work on it in spring training. If a position change played a role in Cronenworth's struggles who's to say moving to the OF wouldn't have a similar effect on Kim? I don't think you can just expect a seamless transition. He's a great infielder. There's no need to mess with that.