Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 8:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 4, 2024, 7:20 pm

SD just signs its DH! A return of Grand Slam hero Daniel Camerena!!

In all seriousness, he has come back on a MiL deal, along with MiL deals for 2 OFers Oscar Mercado and Bryce Johnson, and C Plawecki.

Looks like two CF for EP … suggesting that Marsee is closer than we think.

Mercado burst on the scene in 2019 with Cleveland with #8 in ROY voting then crashed and burned providing nothing of use since. Was he with the new hitting coach in Cleveland? Johnson is just AAA guy. However, EP needed bodies in the OF (sounds familiar).

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 8:42 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 5:11 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 4:06 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 3:04 pm

I completely forgot we signed Cal Mitchell.

Does he get a legit shot at LF or is he ticketed for AAA or does it depend on trades or signings?

Is he definitely behind Marsee for LF or do they want Marsee to get some time in EP?

Without a trade or signing for an obvious starter ST could be interesting for both young outfielders and starting pitchers.

 

Well Mitchell will certainly get looked at (as will Ornelas) … with only Tatis and Azocar on the roster as legit OF … and the likelihood of signing THREE good OF being very low and of the prospects only Marsee is a true OF … will be just a massive competition for at least one of the three slots.

In this market the $20MM yet to be deployed is not likely to yield three quality hitters … so maybe the strategy is to get one “better”, one “OK”, and he last one wild card at league minimum? Good chance they go for that last slot with a player to hold it until one of the real prospects is ready after a spell in AAA.

What should cause some worry … with three open slots that they are already struggling to fill … what happens if the OF gets hit with a major injury (or a string of minor injuries) in April?

Where is Wil Myers when you need him!

Are we sure they’re struggling to fill these spots?

They missed on Lee….but other than that I believe AJ is just biding his time on free agents and working trade deals.

What I’m saying is just because they haven’t filled those spots by Jan 4 doesn’t mean Preller is worried and stressing and doesn’t know what to do.

He just ain’t that type….if Lee was plan A,he already had plan B,C and D…we just don’t know what they are.

 

I can’t see Preller stressing about much and agree that he is simultaneously working a long list of alternatives. Also, agree that he probably planned to land Lee but never expected Lee’s value to shoot up to $18MM AAV (and neither did anyone else) which effectively knocked him out of the game.

Sounded like Kiermaier was one of the backup plans but he too was over estimate by about 25% ($2-3MM) and apparently had a liking for TOR. Getting a theme were the escalated cost of mid-tier OF … when trying to add three (and maybe pitching) may be sinking more than plan A.

As it stands not an impressive list of FA OF … that likely are under $10MM. Actually except for Bellinger …not an impressive list at all.

I could see Jankowski (will be low cost) and Profar … except Profar is a Boras client and remember last winter most expected Profar to be an easy sign and he was not as Boras just held him out. If they went with those two (combined should be well south of $10MM) that should leave a good amount for the other OF add … better quality but again looking at the FA not sure on any of them.

Would think players and agents for OF would want to sign with SD given the OF situation which will give them the greatest chance to make the 26 man roster and get significant playing time to build a resume for FA next winter. Maybe not wait to squeeze the last dollar out of some team at the risk of the SD opportunity ending as others sign.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2024, 5:20 am

Yes Boras held Profar out but that ended up a mistake…turns out he would have been much better off just opting in and staying in SD.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2024, 6:00 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2024, 5:20 am

Yes Boras held Profar out but that ended up a mistake…turns out he would have been much better off just opting in and staying in SD.

 

Mistake ...maybe depending on how he looks at it. In 2023 adding the Padres buyout and what he signed for from COLO ... think he made $1MM more by leaving. Now he may not be as happy for those 6 months as he would have been in SD ... but did end up again in SD with $1MM more in his pocket.

No way to tell if he would have had a better platform year to FA in SD vs what he had with COLO (which was not good). In SD he would have been bench / DH with Soto and Bogaerts every day players.

Hope he does sign with SD ... apparently a positive catalyst for the team with the switch-hitting versatility for the INF/OF which on this roster would be useful even if his offense is average or below. Not seeing much traction in his FA market ... but given his history (and this market) still should get a 1 year deal less than $7MM. (should note the options in that $7-8MM projection range are just not all that appealing ... but I guess if Preller waits long enough some will panic just to get into camp in February and drop a bit).

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 5, 2024, 7:07 am

Waiting for the Winter League Dominican playoffs to end.  Shildt was down there talking to Tatis and others.  From what I've seen of Profar's Winter statistics, not having that great a year while playing mostly LF.  Don't think he has much leverage to get a contract beyond 4-5M.  Still, he seems to bring some energy to this team and hopefully will perform more like he did in San Diego than in Colorado last year.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 5, 2024, 7:18 am

Catching up on some of the latest rumors. Jeff Passan brought the Padres up in the context of teams that are lurking on the high end starting pitching market.

Jon Heyman says we're involved in the mid-tier starting pitching market.

Robert Murray says we're interested in Michael Taylor.

I've seen multiple reports that we're still talking about Kim and Cronenworth. It would take an overwhelming offer to move Kim and neither is seen as likely to be moved.

On a general note Murray also noted that a number of teams are interested in Brent Suter with some considering converting him into a starter. After finding success with Lugo I wonder if AJ could look to replicate it with Sutter or another reliever.

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2024, 7:52 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 5, 2024, 7:18 am

Catching up on some of the latest rumors. Jeff Passan brought the Padres up in the context of teams that are lurking on the high end starting pitching market.

Jon Heyman says we're involved in the mid-tier starting pitching market.

Robert Murray says we're interested in Michael Taylor.

I've seen multiple reports that we're still talking about Kim and Cronenworth. It would take an overwhelming offer to move Kim and neither is seen as likely to be moved.

On a general note Murray also noted that a number of teams are interested in Brent Suter with some considering converting him into a starter. After finding success with Lugo I wonder if AJ could look to replicate it with Sutter or another reliever.

Suter is an interesting option. Not sure why he is not thought of more highly (think price tag) even at age 34 his history is strong in the pen. Seeing early estimates at 1 year around $5MM ... that has to be way too low in the market. However, if the Padres can add him ... he provides some more LHP depth ... even if just the pen to go with Cosgrove and Matsui. He is not in the closer conversation. Given he alternatives for 4th and 5th SP ... he surely would get a shot.

I expect to see rumors to keep flying around trading Kim or Cronenworth all the way through ST (maybe longer). Now the odds of a deal is probably low BUT no reason for the media not to keep it up. Three factors (beyond the potential return) has to be: 1) making more payroll space for a more impactful add at a different position; 2) not wanting to lose Kim as a FA with no return; 3) their opinion as to the potential / readiness of Merrill and Pauley for INF positions. However, the key will be any player return value.

Taylor is a legit CF but a bit up and down as a hitter  ... maybe in the $8MM range?

Suter - Taylor - Profar - Marsee would fill the roster for less than the rumored $20MM to deploy. Suter, Taylor, Profar could (should) be all 1 year deals resting the flexibility in the payroll next winter as some of the internal prospect are more ready for ML time. I guess that would be an OK supplement to the core legacy players.

Quote from fenn68 on January 5, 2024, 9:23 am

If they sign Taylor (2 years, $8MM AAV) there will be a quick debate on them being better off keeping Grisham who in ARB should get about $5MM in 2024 and had a 2025 ARB TBD. So, a little more costly for Taylor.

So what about production:

Grisham wRC+: 91 (2023) and 84 (2022) vs. Taylor: 96 (2023) and 89 (2022) ... not a significant difference but shaped a bit differently with Grisham's having the power.

Defense may be surprising to some,

Grisham dWAR: 0.1 (2023) and 7.3 (2022) vs. Taylor: 3.4 (2023) and 4.7 (2022) ... so was that major defensive drop in 2023 by Grisham all due to injury or might it have been perceived by the Padres as a bit of decline?

Good bet that Taylor would be overall as productive as Grisham and maybe better for a few million more plus don't know how to factor in the impact of Grisham being included in the Soto deal and what he ended up getting added in the return ... and would that be worth maybe $4-5MM payroll hit?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 5, 2024, 1:45 pm

Mariners trade Robbie Ray to the Giants.

Not a big deal "unless" they are clearing a spot,and some salary,to go after hometown bot Blake Snell.

 

Also,looks like they will be getting Luke Raley from the Rays for a 26 year old middle infielder named Jose Caballero.

Caballero is a middling middle infielder......am I wrong in thinking Raley would be a perfect fit for us?

This seems about equivalent to us sending Castanon or Verdugo for Raley.

I don't get it?

Why wouldn't we make this deal?