Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 11:52 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 10:50 am

And was the MVP the last 4-6 weeks as well.

Timely hitting,or lack thereof,and the porous Bullpen are definitely the main reasons we missed the playoffs.

Both more easily fixed than other issues we could have had.

Offense overall was average while the pitching and defense were excellent.

Last years team was a Playoff team if not for their issues in close games.

 

The hitting thing was just a head scratcher ... less frustrated by the bullpen over the course of the season given can't cover every hole perfectly.

I know most don't like the "injuries" explanation ... but if we are talking about just winning two more games to make the playoffs ... have to deal with the games without Musgrove and Darvish  ... somewhere about 20 missing starts covered badly by Weathers, Hill, Waldron, Avila ... guessing the Padres would have one at least 5 and more likely 10 more games if they were healthy. Sure can complain did not have the ready back-up ... but back to can't cover all contingencies even with a $290MM+ payroll.

Then layer the the Machado injury sapping his production and Bogaerts' injury messing up the middle of the season for him. That is FOUR of their major stars injured ... not sure any team could have transcended that.

Healthy the 2023 team would have been a legit World Series contender and $290MM+ well spent. Went for the gold buying proven talent but somehow fate stepped in and altered the plan.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 4, 2024, 11:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 9:03 am

Wonder why Machado is not getting more heat for a major drop in production after re-working his contract last winter before he completed his last season prior to his opt out (adding 5 more years, 10 if he did opt out)?

2022: 298/366/531 ... wRC+ 153 ... 7.5 WAR

2023: 258/319/462 ... wRC+ 114 ... 3.5 WAR

Even if Machado just fell half way between the two numbers ... Padres probably would have won those couple of extra games needed to make the playoffs.

Machado landed the largest contract yet at 4.4 WAR Kim, Tatis, and Bogaerts all out performed him in 2023. Maybe the Machado contract re-work was the worst move from last winter.

I think there's fair reason to be concerned about Machado. He's fallen off pretty drastically against the fastball the last 2 years. From 2018-2021 the worst he hit against 4-seamers was .291 with a .515 SLG in 2021. In 2022 he dropped to .221 and .405. In 2023 he finished at .233 and .400. He's also seen a pretty drastic increase in his whiff rate the past 2 years. He had a pretty significant gap between his expected numbers and his actual numbers in 2022. They were much closer in 2023.

The elbow was obviously an issue. He also went absolutely nuclear in July and had a very good September/October showing the type of hitter he can still be. I see reasons for optimism and concern. It's definitely something worth looking at.

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 12:06 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 11:00 am

My guess is AJ has a trade(s) lined up for an outfielder….. or two.

Also my guess is Kepler is not one….I don't believe he’s giving up any prospect capital right now for 1 year rentals.

 

Makes sense but not sure I can identify OF trade targets that are a (good), b (low salary to fit the payroll), and c (if a and b ... not costing some top prospects). Also, other teams will have to be willing to trade them ... not always so easy.

What is hard to gauge is Preller's projection on any of their prospects (not always the same as the national rankings). So, maybe there are a couple that "sound" good but not in Preller's mind and could be trade chips? Plus how far down the prospect list would he start to consider a player a trade chip and move a prospect for a rental?

If he really believes in Marsee, Pauley, Merrill for the near future ... maybe don't need much more than a rental for 2024 (re-address next winter). Not going to deal Snelling, Lesko, Thorpe but could he be more flexible with Iriate, Mazur, Bergert (at least one) for the right piece? Keep going down to Lizzaraga, Krob, etc. Remember that just OK rentals don't really cost all that much in player assets.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 4, 2024, 2:25 pm

New assistant hitting coach Pat O'Sullivan was the hitting coach for the AFL Peoria Javelinas so he should have a really good idea of what Marsee, Pauley and Martorella may do in the majors.  While AFL MVP Marsee's keen eye and good jump on the base paths will likely hold up in the majors, it's his 40+ FB% that has to be considered worrisome given his 90% percentile exit velocity is only average at best.  Marsee does spray the ball around, so you have that, however, you have to hope that some of those fly balls will become hard hit line drives rather than cans of corn.  Marsee does a good job of picking out balls to hit hard when he gets ahead in the count so while that average exit velocity may not be as good as Merrill's or Pauley's, for example, he can do some damage - just hope he doesn't turn into a Cronenworth clone post 2021.

 

 

Quote from sportwarrior on January 4, 2024, 2:39 pm

My gut continues to tell me that the FO was extremely overconfident and premature in trading Grish away. I know that, ideally, the team needed to move on and acquire a more productive bat for his position, but I think they dramatically overestimated their chances in landing Lee. He was, in my mind, their heir apparent in CF. Once he was signed away by SF, their plans for the offseason were blown apart. The market floor for OF/CF this offseason has made things even more difficult.

Simply put, I really want there to be a contingency plan in place, but I don't think there is. They'll continue to be patient and wait for an opportunity, but ultimately we're only going to avoid a last minute scramble by sending away valuable trade chips to plug our two OF spots with moderately productive vets.

Also, for what it's worth, I think they'd be highly irresponsible to plan on or project Marsee or Merrill in the OF to start the season. They're both very exciting, but neither have had extensive experience at AA or above. They need more time to marinate.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 3:04 pm

I completely forgot we signed Cal Mitchell.

Does he get a legit shot at LF or is he ticketed for AAA or does it depend on trades or signings?

Is he definitely behind Marsee for LF or do they want Marsee to get some time in EP?

Without a trade or signing for an obvious starter ST could be interesting for both young outfielders and starting pitchers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 4:06 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 3:04 pm

I completely forgot we signed Cal Mitchell.

Does he get a legit shot at LF or is he ticketed for AAA or does it depend on trades or signings?

Is he definitely behind Marsee for LF or do they want Marsee to get some time in EP?

Without a trade or signing for an obvious starter ST could be interesting for both young outfielders and starting pitchers.

 

Well Mitchell will certainly get looked at (as will Ornelas) … with only Tatis and Azocar on the roster as legit OF … and the likelihood of signing THREE good OF being very low and of the prospects only Marsee is a true OF … will be just a massive competition for at least one of the three slots.

In this market the $20MM yet to be deployed is not likely to yield three quality hitters … so maybe the strategy is to get one “better”, one “OK”, and he last one wild card at league minimum? Good chance they go for that last slot with a player to hold it until one of the real prospects is ready after a spell in AAA.

What should cause some worry … with three open slots that they are already struggling to fill … what happens if the OF gets hit with a major injury (or a string of minor injuries) in April?

Where is Wil Myers when you need him!

Quote from WindsorUK on January 4, 2024, 5:03 pm

I still believe that reunions with Profar and Jankowski are no brainers that fill multiple holes- speed, outfield defense/ versatility, 1B help, LH bats, low cost, fan favourites, good clubhouse guys.

I think AJ is trying to put together one of his colossaly stupid multi player 3/4/5 for 1 deals that ultimately gain us nothing. That's why he's not pulled the trigger on, well, anyone.

Whilst I realize there is a few weeks yet before guys start reporting, the sooner we can get the "team" together, I believe the better results we'll have.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 5:11 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 4, 2024, 4:06 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 4, 2024, 3:04 pm

I completely forgot we signed Cal Mitchell.

Does he get a legit shot at LF or is he ticketed for AAA or does it depend on trades or signings?

Is he definitely behind Marsee for LF or do they want Marsee to get some time in EP?

Without a trade or signing for an obvious starter ST could be interesting for both young outfielders and starting pitchers.

 

Well Mitchell will certainly get looked at (as will Ornelas) … with only Tatis and Azocar on the roster as legit OF … and the likelihood of signing THREE good OF being very low and of the prospects only Marsee is a true OF … will be just a massive competition for at least one of the three slots.

In this market the $20MM yet to be deployed is not likely to yield three quality hitters … so maybe the strategy is to get one “better”, one “OK”, and he last one wild card at league minimum? Good chance they go for that last slot with a player to hold it until one of the real prospects is ready after a spell in AAA.

What should cause some worry … with three open slots that they are already struggling to fill … what happens if the OF gets hit with a major injury (or a string of minor injuries) in April?

Where is Wil Myers when you need him!

Are we sure they’re struggling to fill these spots?

They missed on Lee….but other than that I believe AJ is just biding his time on free agents and working trade deals.

What I’m saying is just because they haven’t filled those spots by Jan 4 doesn’t mean Preller is worried and stressing and doesn’t know what to do.

He just ain’t that type….if Lee was plan A,he already had plan B,C and D…we just don’t know what they are.