Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2023, 5:45 am

A bit of optimism to end the year. The offense has a chance to be better than 2023 even after losing Soto, Sanchez, and Grisham (total loss of 9.0 WAR.

Clearly a number of returnees performed well below their past performance, so IF:

Bogaerts (4.4 WAR) and Kim (4.4 WAR) just hold their 2023 performance, then

Tatis (4.4 WAR) moves back to his 7.3 WAR

Machado (3.5 WAR) moves up to 5.5 WAR (has been between 4.0 and 7.0 WAR in recent years

Cronenworth (1.0 WAR) moves up to 4.2 WAR (his level in 2021 and 2022)

Campusano (1.1 WAR) moves in a full season moves up to 3.0 (more playing time)

That is already an offset for the departures … so any pluses from the remaining three starters will just create improvement … this view may allow Preller to justify going with one (or more) of the rookies (Marsee, Pauley, Merrill).

Pressure (as it should be) on Machado and Tatis who well underperformed in 2023.

I know not the best analytical logic … but at least shows the positive upside potential.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2023, 6:49 am

On the pitching side … SP slots #1-3 should be solid with Musgrove and Darvish returning to full season health and the addition of King who showed some strong work in his 2023 with the NYY. Vasquez probably gets the #4 slot to start the season based on his “stuff” and minor league record. #5 (and long relief) seems to be a mix and match initially among Brito, Avila, and Waldron.

The wild card may be who among the “prospects” will emerge by mid-season to give a boost to the starting staff. Considering the near term prospects only had a minimum taste of AA … but jumps for AA for pitchers are not uncommon … so any one of could be ready mid-season (but not likely to start the season in the ML).

The prospect rankings will change this winter but using the 2023 list (innings are in AA):

#3 … Snelling (20) … 17 innings … 1.56 ERA

#6 … Thorpe (23) … 30 innings … 1.48 ERA

#7 … Iriate (22) … 29 innings … 4.30 ERA (on the 40 man)

#8 … Mazur (22) … 38 innings … 4.03 ERA

#18 … Bergert (23) … 44 innings … 2.86 ERA

In different sites Snelling and Thorpe were their MiL pitcher of the year … both in the first season of full season ball. However, the under the radar call-up could be Bergert who apparently has fully recovered from his injuries prior to 2023 and is now pitching to the quality of his stuff.

No idea who continues to develop and some will peak out so the depth is encouraging. Some if not SP should be good upgrades to the pen. 2025 could see a lot of new faces on the staff.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 31, 2023, 7:14 am

You can really see the affect of Tatis playing with his shoulder injuries from 2020 to 2023 in his Average Exit Velocity, Barrel % and Hard Hit%, coming back from surgery and suspension.  From his 2020 levels (95.9 mph avg EV), he lost 2 mph in 2021 and another 2 mph in 2023; Barrel (19.5%) to 11.0% in 2023; and Hard Hit% in 2020 (62.6%), he lost 6.6% in 2021 and another 6.7% in 2023.  Plus, his ground ball rate soared to 47.1%, a 6.9% difference that was lost pretty much in his FB rate (-6.3%).  So, did the surgeries correct the problem and he will return to better stats in 2024 or is this the new norm for Tatis?

My opinion is that he'll not fully get back that looseness in his swing that made it so dynamic but after a full year of recovery, he'll regain a lot of the barrel and hard hit%'s.  So far his Winter League stats are encouraging while incorporating adjustments to his swing (per his Dad's comments) even though he's only hit 1 HR in 26 AB's (but a .577 SA).  We'll know more in spring training.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 31, 2023, 2:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2023, 6:49 am

On the pitching side … SP slots #1-3 should be solid with Musgrove and Darvish returning to full season health and the addition of King who showed some strong work in his 2023 with the NYY. Vasquez probably gets the #4 slot to start the season based on his “stuff” and minor league record. #5 (and long relief) seems to be a mix and match initially among Brito, Avila, and Waldron.

The wild card may be who among the “prospects” will emerge by mid-season to give a boost to the starting staff. Considering the near term prospects only had a minimum taste of AA … but jumps for AA for pitchers are not uncommon … so any one of could be ready mid-season (but not likely to start the season in the ML).

The prospect rankings will change this winter but using the 2023 list (innings are in AA):

#3 … Snelling (20) … 17 innings … 1.56 ERA

#6 … Thorpe (23) … 30 innings … 1.48 ERA

#7 … Iriate (22) … 29 innings … 4.30 ERA (on the 40 man)

#8 … Mazur (22) … 38 innings … 4.03 ERA

#18 … Bergert (23) … 44 innings … 2.86 ERA

In different sites Snelling and Thorpe were their MiL pitcher of the year … both in the first season of full season ball. However, the under the radar call-up could be Bergert who apparently has fully recovered from his injuries prior to 2023 and is now pitching to the quality of his stuff.

No idea who continues to develop and some will peak out so the depth is encouraging. Some if not SP should be good upgrades to the pen. 2025 could see a lot of new faces on the staff.

The Padres currently have 34 of their 40-man roster spots filled. They will add at least 2 more OF to that since they only have Tatis and Azocar currently. So, maybe 4 spots to add pitching to the 40-man. One of those will go to Matsui, so only 3 spots left, unless 1 or 2 of the out-of-options pitchers(Patino, Avila, Groome) get cut.

I think we will see which pitchers the Padres think are close to ready for MLB by who they add. Iriarte is already on the 40-man and I think Thorpe and Bergert are pretty much guaranteed. Who gets the last 1-2 spots? Snelling and Mazur? A signing or 2?

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2023, 3:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2023, 6:49 am

On the pitching side … SP slots #1-3 should be solid with Musgrove and Darvish returning to full season health and the addition of King who showed some strong work in his 2023 with the NYY. Vasquez probably gets the #4 slot to start the season based on his “stuff” and minor league record. #5 (and long relief) seems to be a mix and match initially among Brito, Avila, and Waldron.

The wild card may be who among the “prospects” will emerge by mid-season to give a boost to the starting staff. Considering the near term prospects only had a minimum taste of AA … but jumps for AA for pitchers are not uncommon … so any one of could be ready mid-season (but not likely to start the season in the ML).

The prospect rankings will change this winter but using the 2023 list (innings are in AA):

#3 … Snelling (20) … 17 innings … 1.56 ERA

#6 … Thorpe (23) … 30 innings … 1.48 ERA

#7 … Iriate (22) … 29 innings … 4.30 ERA (on the 40 man)

#8 … Mazur (22) … 38 innings … 4.03 ERA

#18 … Bergert (23) … 44 innings … 2.86 ERA

In different sites Snelling and Thorpe were their MiL pitcher of the year … both in the first season of full season ball. However, the under the radar call-up could be Bergert who apparently has fully recovered from his injuries prior to 2023 and is now pitching to the quality of his stuff.

No idea who continues to develop and some will peak out so the depth is encouraging. Some if not SP should be good upgrades to the pen. 2025 could see a lot of new faces on the staff.

Currently it is 34 with Matsui and Iriate in that total. Not worried about filling the 4o man since most of those non-roster arms and position players don't have to be added until they are needed for the 26 man.

Even if they add 3 hitters ... still only 37. However, unlikely Patino or Groome make the 26 and are out of minor league options so will come off the 40 man ... down to 35. A toss up as to Kolek (Rule 5) and Avila make the 26 ... say one does and one does not ... the does not is DFA and down to 34. Then look at the 40 man roster pitcher destined for AAA ... some "easy" DFA out of that group if needed.

Over the course of 2024 don't think the Padres have any issue adding any non-roster prospect if needed or add a player via trade / FA.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 1, 2024, 11:34 am

I’m ready for a move or two…..or four.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2024, 12:18 pm

Going to be an interesting period for Preller.

1. He is limited with the payroll cap (that is impacting both trades and FA) while needing at least 2 (maybe 3) hitters and possible another SP.

2. His trade chips (if avoiding the top prospects) are limited if the intent is getting a quality player in return unless Kim and/or Cronenworth (maybe) are in play … but that just only creates a different hole to fill.

3. Take out the top money FA … the rest are not that compelling and could be more expensive than we think. There are a lot of contenders … with low payrolls … that have yet to significantly spend this winter … so potentially a lot of competitions.

4. Once the big money guys sign … some of the bigger payroll teams that failed to land them (e.g. TOR, CUBS, et al) they may pivot (with money) to the next lower tier … which may slow the next tier from signing early.

All that may really limit Preller on the quality FA market … maybe someone falls through the cracks after ST begins.

What we can’t really know is the Padres’ confidence in any of the internal prospects for the start of 2024 … just one starting changes the money to fill the other spots.

Trades? Can they land a quality player that does not carry a big contract for “lesser” prospects? Do they believe enough in Merrill to justify trading Kim? Can they find anyone to trade for Cronenworth and his contract thus opening up some more payroll space for a better FA sign or take a bigger contract in a different trade?

Whew with the FA and other teams not necessarily viewing the Padres’ offers the same as Preller … might be nothing significant happening and we see Marsee - Pauley - Merrill on opening day?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 2, 2024, 4:50 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 1, 2024, 11:34 am

I’m ready for a move or two…..or four.

 

Preller has a history of making big moves late in the off-season. The Musgrove trade happened in January. Hosmer and Machado signed in February. The trade for Taylor Rodgers happened the day before the season started. I'm hoping he's got a few more in store for us this year.

Quote from 84padres on January 2, 2024, 5:31 am

It doesn't seem possible but as of right now the Padres are number 11 in off season free agent spending .