Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 5:12 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 29, 2023, 10:45 pm

It has been mentioned that we should pack up Bogaerts and trade him back to Boston.  Let's say Bogaerts waives his no trade clause and agrees to go back to Boston - what could we get in the short/longer run to help the team?   I'm never good at making up trades but here's a wild one on a Friday before New Years.  What if we trade Bogaerts, either Brito or Vazquez and Martorella to Boston for LHP Chris Sale and 1b Triston Casas?  Sale finished 2023 healthy and has one more year plus a vesting year with pretty much unattainable goals to make that take affect (top 10 in Cy Young voting, not on IL, etc.) - he would immediately fill out the #3 spot in the rotation and most expert opinions I've seen say he can get to at least Wacha-like innings pitched (130+).  Casas, a LH bat, becomes our 1b and allows us to use Kim at ss and Cronenworth at 2b.  The 25M that becomes available after the expected free agency of Sale could be used to extend Kim (if that's our choice) or give us an additional 25M to seek whatever we need to fill out the 2025 roster assuming Merrill is close to being ready.  If somehow Sale attains his vesting goals for 2025, then he's had an incredible year and we probably could not find another pitcher for 20M in 2025 (especially if Giolito got 19.25M a year for 2 years!) of that quality before he hits free agency after that season.

Have fun with it guys!  Just trying to kill some time until we sign Leodalis de Vries on 15 January or the next Preller trade/acquisition that doesn't involve our top 7 prospects!

 

 

 

Always a good mental exercise … helps me rethink the production / value of players.

Think Boston would jump on this deal. Bogaerts delivered a 120 wRC+/4.4 WAR last season and carries 10 more years at $25.5MM contract. (Assumes BOST has the future payroll space in their plan).

They dump 1 year of Sale ($27MM) who has not pitched over 150 inning in a season since 2018 and 2020-2022 barely pitched at all. More likely the next Pomeranz than the next Wacha or Lugo.

So look to Casas to be the key piece. Young, league minimum, 5 years control who in his rookie season had a 129 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR (bad defensive 1B). His calling card is RHH power.

In 2024 money is effectively neutral. Boston gains a 4.4 WAR and gives up 1.7 plus whatever the teams project on Sale. Padres probably would not have to add any other pieces.

2025 the question is what each team thinks they can do with the $27MM freed up from Sale a FA. Basically are they better off with Bogaerts or Casas and $27MM to deploy?

Also, we know Bogaerts can play in Boston but will Casas’ power play at PETCO? Although for the Padres freeing up Bogaerts’ $25.5MM maybe be the strategic value beyond dropping in WAR value. Maybe that allows them to extend Kim and still have money to deploy. Certainly makes more space for Merrill starting. If considering the long run … at some point in the course of the next 10 years going to have to deal with some of the internal prospects getting large ARB paychecks and ultimately extensions for significant bucks.

So, may boil down to Boston’s long term payroll plan but even though they were last in the AL East they were not that far out of a wild card slot without much help for Sale (4+ ERA in less than 150 innings) and Story being injured most of the season and having the worst year in his career. Boston fans don’t like not being in the hunt and the return of fan favorite Bogaerts might do more for returning them to the playoffs in 2024 than Casas/Sale.

If you view the deal a certain way … a legit deal the helps both teams in the long run.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 6:26 am

With what we have seen with the cost of SP … extreme for the better pitchers and what is developing as too costly for the Padres even the mediocre SP.

Could the Padres pivot to sticking with the current roster … maybe betting some of the better prospects are ready in the 2nd half of the season? We have seen in 2023 and 2015 that going all in for the short run does not always work and with it going to be a challenge with the LAD and AZ assumed in a better 2024 position … should they use the money they have remaining to focus on hitters (they do have the need)?

Sometimes the real market place forces a team from the ideal adds to the most pragmatic adds. Add three “better” bats for the $22MM available and end up with a much stronger #1-9 line-up and just out score the opposition? Musgrove - Darvish - King should be giving them a strong top 3 SP. Then sort through the other SP candidates for #4-5 until (hopefully) strong reinforcements arrive in the form of the top propsects.

Side: considering the high value of SP … looking ahead … there are NO Padre FA pitchers after the 2024 season and the likelihood that more than one prospect is poised to step up. Potentially next winter (or at the trade deadline) Preller will be in a very strong position to deal from a deep roster of SP … getting overpays for the mid-lower end arms. Actually after 2025 only King becomes a FA. The disadvantage of expensive SP in 2024 may just turn into and advantage for the Padres coming soon.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 7:04 am

Continuing with the go hitters not pitchers for the $23MM+/- remaining to deploy … and recognizing they need LHH and OF … consider these two options (could fit the money but close):

A. Tatis (CF) then add Pederson (RF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH), or

B. Tatis (RF) then add Bader (CF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH) …

”A” should be more expensive (Pederson over Bader) so a close fit but “B” is a superior defensive option and should weigh how comfortable with the “core 6” providing the needed offense. Both Pederson and Bader are projected as 2 year deals but the way the market is moving might see them settle for 1 year (maybe with an option).

Marsee gets more development time in the minors and becomes the call-up when the first injury occurs in the OF/DH/1B where Profar’s versatility can cover.

That has a chance to be a better 2024 strategy to make the playoffs than “wasting” $12-15MM on a mediocre SP or trading for a one year rental (at the cost of some top prospects … (if they can really find a trade partner). Would not under-estimate that “problem” caused by not having reliable hitters beyond the core 6 being worse than whomever gets the final SP slot.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 9:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 7:04 am

Continuing with the go hitters not pitchers for the $23MM+/- remaining to deploy … and recognizing they need LHH and OF … consider these two options (could fit the money but close):

A. Tatis (CF) then add Pederson (RF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH), or

B. Tatis (RF) then add Bader (CF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH) …

”A” should be more expensive (Pederson over Bader) so a close fit but “B” is a superior defensive option and should weigh how comfortable with the “core 6” providing the needed offense. Both Pederson and Bader are projected as 2 year deals but the way the market is moving might see them settle for 1 year (maybe with an option).

Marsee gets more development time in the minors and becomes the call-up when the first injury occurs in the OF/DH/1B where Profar’s versatility can cover.

That has a chance to be a better 2024 strategy to make the playoffs than “wasting” $12-15MM on a mediocre SP or trading for a one year rental (at the cost of some top prospects … (if they can really find a trade partner). Would not under-estimate that “problem” caused by not having reliable hitters beyond the core 6 being worse than whomever gets the final SP slot.

After looking at Brantley ... had not realized how little he has played in the past two season (injuries) ... need to pass on him.

Maybe the better offensive strategy:

Tatis (CF): Pederson (RF); Santana (DH) then if enough more left Profar in LF but if not roll with Marsee in LF at league minimum. Pederson will not be low cost. or

Tatis (RF): Bader (CF); Santana (DH); and Profar (LF) with Marsee the first up.

Over the past couple of seasons the first is basically an "average" offensive production ... the second slightly less but superior defense.

The issue with Santana is he is really now just a DH ... and if Machado has to be the DH for an extended period Santana is of little value unless gamble at 1B while shifting the rest of the INF.

I guess could go with Profar / Marsee in the corners (Tatis in CF) and Pederson as the DH (OF as needed).

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2023, 11:40 am

I think your defensive assessments are off on both Santana and Pederson. Santana played a 135 games at 1B last season between PIT and MIL. Whereas Pederson barely played the field at all last season, and most of his OF time in 22 and 23 were in LF. Now, not sure if SF had someone they thought was better for RF than Pederson or if he is just getting slower in his older age.

However, if we could get the right price on Profar, Bader, and Santana, and have an alignment of Profar- LF, Bader - CF, Tatis - RF, Kim - 3B, Bogaerts - SS, Crone - 2B, Santana - 1B, and Campusano - C that would be decent to start the season.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 30, 2023, 11:52 am

With the exception of Salas, who we all would probably agree needs a full year in the minors, we have Merrill, Marsee and Pauley who are viewed as the closest to making the big league roster.  Merrill has the most AB's of the group but it is only a combined 663 in Low A to AA  mainly because of illnesses (flu episodes/stomach virus), broken wrist and strained hamstring.  In comparison, Marsee has only 523 total AB's while Pauley has 539.

Despite these setbacks cutting into the consistency of his performance, Merrill has a remarkable combined Contact % ((AB-K)/AB) of 84.3% in Low A and above.  This is bordering on the elite and few in the majors reach that %, ex. Machado is 82% in best year with the Padres, Tatis 76% (last year) and Bogaerts 82% (again, last year).  A lot of the top players in MLB are in the low 70's and even Acuna was in that low 70s range before he exploded to 87% last year.

Basically, Merrill is putting the ball in play with great frequency and as he's moved up the minor league chain, he's gone from an extreme GB hitter (59.6%) at LE to a developing power hitter - LD -25%, GB-33.5%, FB-41.5% at SA.  When you pair that with a K rate in the low teens (11.8% at SA), you have to get excited about Merrill's future.  Merrill's 90% exit velocity has been reported in the high 110's, which bodes well for more extra base hits and HRs in the future.

For comparison purposes, Marsee's combined contact rate from Low A to AA is 78.6% while Pauley's is 80.9%.  Marsee has worked to get more lift on the ball and has moved toward FB (41.5%) and LD (26.8%) while decreasing his GB%; he basically hits the ball middle/right (pull) but goes opposite with decent frequency.  Pauley is equally divided between GB and FB but is definitely more of a pull hitter (over 50%) and surprisingly more opposite field than up the middle.   Marsee's 90% exit velocity is not that high (low 90's) but he can turn on an inside pitch and hit it out; Pauley, on the other hand has more impressive exit velocities and is approaching Merrill's numbers.

Based on the above, I can see Marsee as serviceable in CF because of his defense (and BA/OBP better than Grisham) but we might be surprised by Pauley in Spring Training if he can show he has improved his LF defense.  If he has done that, you could see him platoon with Profar in LF with Marsee in CF sometime during the early part of the 2024 season.  We'll need another experienced OF or two to plug into the line-up at the beginning of the season but remember who we put out there before Tatis came back from suspension last year - besides Azocar we have Marcano, Batten and even Sullivan on the roster who have played OF; Jankowski might fill the bill.  Merrill also has played OF but really need to groom him for middle infield, where his value will be the highest.  In his early years, I'm hoping for Corey Seager-like kind of production before he signed with Texas. He's a high character guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder and possibly still growing into his body - very very close to being ready.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2023, 11:55 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 29, 2023, 10:45 pm

It has been mentioned that we should pack up Bogaerts and trade him back to Boston.  Let's say Bogaerts waives his no trade clause and agrees to go back to Boston - what could we get in the short/longer run to help the team?   I'm never good at making up trades but here's a wild one on a Friday before New Years.  What if we trade Bogaerts, either Brito or Vazquez and Martorella to Boston for LHP Chris Sale and 1b Triston Casas?

I was the one that proposed sending Bogaerts back to BOS. While I liked your proposal on this thought, I think that there are a couple of issues.

One, I use BTV to start working on balanced trades. Its not perfect, for instance it said that the NYY/SD would be rejected saying that NYY were giving up too much, but that trade happened. And they have a large value on Casas, and with BOS trying to compete this season, I dont see them trading Casas.

Two, and this just happened. Sale was just traded to ATL for Vaughn Grissom, they included $17M to get the deal done.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 12:05 pm

Note that Montes (SP) signs for $16MM/1 yr … and continues the trend of larger than expect deals for SP..

Plus ATL deals for Sale from Boston and is taking about $10MM of his salary but is trading Grissom a 23 year old (6 year control) middle INF prospect … a very good prospect. Was the ATL #7 in 2022 and has had some success in 2022 in a brief ML run. Seem a lot for the Pomeranz of the East and one season.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 30, 2023, 12:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 9:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2023, 7:04 am

Continuing with the go hitters not pitchers for the $23MM+/- remaining to deploy … and recognizing they need LHH and OF … consider these two options (could fit the money but close):

A. Tatis (CF) then add Pederson (RF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH), or

B. Tatis (RF) then add Bader (CF), Profar (LF), and Brantley (DH) …

”A” should be more expensive (Pederson over Bader) so a close fit but “B” is a superior defensive option and should weigh how comfortable with the “core 6” providing the needed offense. Both Pederson and Bader are projected as 2 year deals but the way the market is moving might see them settle for 1 year (maybe with an option).

Marsee gets more development time in the minors and becomes the call-up when the first injury occurs in the OF/DH/1B where Profar’s versatility can cover.

That has a chance to be a better 2024 strategy to make the playoffs than “wasting” $12-15MM on a mediocre SP or trading for a one year rental (at the cost of some top prospects … (if they can really find a trade partner). Would not under-estimate that “problem” caused by not having reliable hitters beyond the core 6 being worse than whomever gets the final SP slot.

After looking at Brantley ... had not realized how little he has played in the past two season (injuries) ... need to pass on him.

Maybe the better offensive strategy:

Tatis (CF): Pederson (RF); Santana (DH) then if enough more left Profar in LF but if not roll with Marsee in LF at league minimum. Pederson will not be low cost. or

Tatis (RF): Bader (CF); Santana (DH); and Profar (LF) with Marsee the first up.

Over the past couple of seasons the first is basically an "average" offensive production ... the second slightly less but superior defense.

The issue with Santana is he is really now just a DH ... and if Machado has to be the DH for an extended period Santana is of little value unless gamble at 1B while shifting the rest of the INF.

I guess could go with Profar / Marsee in the corners (Tatis in CF) and Pederson as the DH (OF as needed).

I would be happy with just Bader and Profar. Marsee as a later call up. Pads could use a rotational DH for a year. Sure everyone would love a 25-35 HR DH, but those guys cost over $15 million per year. Go with a rotation. With every position but DH covered, the Padres can wait until one of Merrill, Marsee, Pauley or Martorella shows enough bat to force a call-up.

Real, quality DH bats cost real, quality prospects to trade for or real money to sign. I really hope that Preller doesn't try to get another half-*ssed "best available" for the price DH like Carpenter.