Forum
Forum Navigation
Off Season Thread
#951 · December 30, 2019, 9:27 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 30, 2019, 8:51 amQuote from fenn68 on December 29, 2019, 12:26 pmActually do worry about Richards ... too many are just conceding him a major role based on "hope". He has not had a good season since 2015 (which was down from his best in 2014) and those were his only two good seasons. So ... beset by injuries ... the last 4 seasons were nothing of note ... will be 32 next season.
Can anyone really rely on him making through a full season .. being anywhere close to his 2015 performance level (ERA in mid-3s) or we will see a guy lucky to rack up 120 innings with a 4+ ERA? Makes the case for not dealing either Quantrill or Lucchesi now.
About mid-season, would not be surprised that either Gore or Patino (or both) move into the starting rotation with good minor league results and the ML incumbents injured or underperforming.
So, maybe a bit of Preller's decision making in dealing Quantrill or Lucchesi this winter (for anyone) is his conviction of the remaining 5 SP options being effective out of the blocks and the timing of the readiness of Gore and / or Patino to step in when needed. Did hear one suggestion that the Padres see Gore as really close to ML work ... with the outside chance (outside mind you) that he could earn a slot to start the season (like Paddack). They think he is that good and that close.
We did not sign Garrett Richards for 15.5 MM - 18 MM for essentially 1 season of pitching for him to be a #5/swingman. Lock one of 3 best SP, could even be O.D. SP. Richards & Lamet (IMO) , Gore, & Patino being limited to 150 IP is the central reason I believe we need TOR SP THIS offseason.
My issue is relying on Richards without a back-up plan. Sure they signed him to be a major part of the rotation but what they want and what they get is not driven by the price they pay ... sometimes Preller gets it wrong (see Kinsler, Hughes, Headley / Mitchell).
Four years without pitching all that much in any season is just not easy to ignore. Then even when he had his two dominate years ... 2014 / 2.61 ERA he only pitched 169 innings and 2015 / 3.65 ERA he did do 207 innings but those were the only two seasons over 150 innings. He may be very good (hopefully) but not likely that innings eater over a full season based on four years off and his history.
May need to control Richards’ innings as they did with Paddack last year.
#952 · December 30, 2019, 9:34 am
You're preaching to at least a 1 person choir: This is what I've been arguing all offseason. We need a TOR SP THIS season for 2 reasons:
- Providing 180-200 IP @ TOR due to IP limits of many guys.
- So Gore is not "expected" to be our #1 SP in 2021
TatisJr has reacted to this post.
TatisJr
#953 · December 30, 2019, 9:38 am
Quote from onlypads on December 30, 2019, 4:13 amQuote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2019, 8:51 pmYeah I stopped reading at “The Astros made Verlander what he is today”.
A little dramatic 😂😂. Yes, there is more to Verlander than just his Astros years, in fact he was dominant at times. However, there is no doubt he turned a page while pitching for Houston and defined his legacy.
Dominant at times? Defined his legacy for Houston? Uhhh you do realize he was ROY, a 6 time All Star with the Tigers?He won the CY Young and MVP in 2011 for Detroit. If Verlander never threw a pitch for Houston he would be a first ballot HOF.
#954 · December 30, 2019, 9:49 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 30, 2019, 9:34 amYou're preaching to at least a 1 person choir: This is what I've been arguing all offseason. We need a TOR SP THIS season for 2 reasons:
- Providing 180-200 IP @ TOR due to IP limits of many guys.
- So Gore is not "expected" to be our #1 SP in 2021
I think Paddack and Lamet can be ACES this year. Joey and Davies are rock solid backend rotation pieces, but I also think banking on Lamet and especially Richards to be in the rotation throughout the year is wishful thinking at best. I’ve been in favor of adding a TOR just for that reason. I will add Im a big believer in Cal and think he could step in nicely if Richards or Lamet goes down. I feel comfortable with the top 6 knowing Gore and possibly Patino could be up by middle of the year. Acquiring that TOR to slot everyone down is the most ideal situation to me, but that’s easier said than done.
#955 · December 30, 2019, 10:11 am
It is Lamet that may be the breakout SP for 2020 ... so would not sleep on his role. The first half of 2019 was a slower return for TJ ... just getting into ML pitching again but in the 2nd half he posted better numbers than Paddack ... mid-3s ERA and a strong slate of innings. Should be ready for a full season (in this era and with the enhanced Padres bull pen that may be 160-180 innings). Paddack should also be full go with a potential mid-3s ERA. Both have a chance to be better. Not bad having that as the #1 and #2 options. I have more faith in the productivity of Davies than most now that he is pitching home games at PETCO vs. Miller. He may not have that impressive stuff but he is effective ... sort of a RH Kuechel / Ryu. Lucchesi / Quantrill are at this point fine #5. Richard is the wild card ... if as hoped he will be near the top of this rotation ... if he is still in a transitional period of recovery, still should be a middle of the rotation strength.
On his roster .... not really concerned about the depth of the SP. Love to get the big upgrade and a cheap price but not so much at an over pay.
#956 · December 30, 2019, 10:27 am
Reports out of Japan Shogo to Reds 3yrs/$15 mil..pretty xlose to what Best offer was on Friday 3/12 that I wrote about here ...i would have liked Shogo here BUT didnt really see ahuge upgrade vs Grisham/Margot/Franchy trio at CF.. His fit with Reds much better in that smaller park...
#957 · December 30, 2019, 11:03 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2019, 10:11 amIt is Lamet that may be the breakout SP for 2020 ... so would not sleep on his role. The first half of 2019 was a slower return for TJ ... just getting into ML pitching again but in the 2nd half he posted better numbers than Paddack ... mid-3s ERA and a strong slate of innings. Should be ready for a full season (in this era and with the enhanced Padres bull pen that may be 160-180 innings). Paddack should also be full go with a potential mid-3s ERA. Both have a chance to be better. Not bad having that as the #1 and #2 options. I have more faith in the productivity of Davies than most now that he is pitching home games at PETCO vs. Miller. He may not have that impressive stuff but he is effective ... sort of a RH Kuechel / Ryu. Lucchesi / Quantrill are at this point fine #5. Richard is the wild card ... if as hoped he will be near the top of this rotation ... if he is still in a transitional period of recovery, still should be a middle of the rotation strength.
On his roster .... not really concerned about the depth of the SP. Love to get the big upgrade and a cheap price but not so much at an over pay.
I am on record that Lamet will pitch to an All Star level this season.
Richards I'm fairly confident will pitch "well"...just not sure how many innings we'll get from him.
But I still don't believe we need to add another starter unless it was just a too good to be true situation(Clevinger w/o losing Gore/Abrams/Campusano for instance) or another difference maker.
With Quantrill/Baz/Morejon/Bolanos in the wings to at least add innings I think we will be fine rather than just adding a guy to add a guy.
Also,as was said.....If we can get to July we can bring up Gore or Patino,if need be and if good reason.
#958 · December 30, 2019, 11:33 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 30, 2019, 11:03 amQuote from fenn68 on December 30, 2019, 10:11 amIt is Lamet that may be the breakout SP for 2020 ... so would not sleep on his role. The first half of 2019 was a slower return for TJ ... just getting into ML pitching again but in the 2nd half he posted better numbers than Paddack ... mid-3s ERA and a strong slate of innings. Should be ready for a full season (in this era and with the enhanced Padres bull pen that may be 160-180 innings). Paddack should also be full go with a potential mid-3s ERA. Both have a chance to be better. Not bad having that as the #1 and #2 options. I have more faith in the productivity of Davies than most now that he is pitching home games at PETCO vs. Miller. He may not have that impressive stuff but he is effective ... sort of a RH Kuechel / Ryu. Lucchesi / Quantrill are at this point fine #5. Richard is the wild card ... if as hoped he will be near the top of this rotation ... if he is still in a transitional period of recovery, still should be a middle of the rotation strength.
On his roster .... not really concerned about the depth of the SP. Love to get the big upgrade and a cheap price but not so much at an over pay.
I am on record that Lamet will pitch to an All Star level this season.
Richards I'm fairly confident will pitch "well"...just not sure how many innings we'll get from him.
But I still don't believe we need to add another starter unless it was just a too good to be true situation(Clevinger w/o losing Gore/Abrams/Campusano for instance) or another difference maker.
With Quantrill/Baz/Morejon/Bolanos in the wings to at least add innings I think we will be fine rather than just adding a guy to add a guy.
Also,as was said.....If we can get to July we can bring up Gore or Patino,if need be and if good reason.
Our rotation is not done/in its permanent form yet. Several people have commented about not relying on Lamet and Richards for full seasons this year. We can’t. They are both in their first year back from Tommy John. They should be on innings restrictions like Paddack was last year. Fortunately, we have Patino and Gore who should be ready to make their ML debuts later in the year.
As for Lamet, he has definitely been showing dominant qualities this year. I was especially impressed with his command. Supposedly that is the last thing to come back after TJ surgery, so if he still has room to improve he could be a monster in 2020!
#959 · December 30, 2019, 12:24 pm
Not that it clearly impacts the Padres ... but it might ... heard a discussion on the signing of Donaldson is holding up the trade market.
It is the seller that may be hold out ... once the big bat is off the market (no matter where he goes) other teams need a middle of the order bat (not position specific) and then more buyers are in play and motivated ... in theory. At that point the sellers can start working more aggressively to get a deal done. We are talking the potential for deals on Bryant, Arenado, Marte, Betts, Lindor level bats ... especially if the buyers don’t see that quality in Ozuna or Castellanos and have the need.
If Donaldson ends up in WASH (likely given the need to replace Rendon and some payroll space available) over ATL (some payroll limits and shying away from a 4 year deal) ... others seem out. ATL becomes more motivated for a trade move ... and maybe the same can be said about PHIL and NYM. Others want improved offense in the middle of the line-up.
#960 · December 30, 2019, 12:49 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 30, 2019, 10:27 amReports out of Japan Shogo to Reds 3yrs/$15 mil..pretty xlose to what Best offer was on Friday 3/12 that I wrote about here ...i would have liked Shogo here BUT didnt really see ahuge upgrade vs Grisham/Margot/Franchy trio at CF.. His fit with Reds much better in that smaller park...
Whew ... the new report has Akiyama at 3 years in excess of $20MM. Reds seem to be opening the pocketbook this winter.
Prelude to dealing Senzel to the Indians for Lindor?