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Off Season Thread
#641 · December 6, 2019, 3:12 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2019, 2:58 pm
Well, we've GOT to be the best trade fit: cheap CF backfill, loaded @ C, loaded with SP prospects. I might do that deal. Marte is a huge improvement over Margot vs RHP
To me it might hinge on if ownership is willing to add +10 MM Net WITHOUT trading out Myers, opening another hole? Or have we all had enough of Wil & that might be addition by subtraction? Tough call
I would think that Marte just becomes our everyday RFer. There are reports of his defense sliding a bit, and Petco is a bigger OF than PIT. So Pham in LF, Marte in RF, and Grisham and ?? in CF.
As far as the money, wasnt there just a report where Siedler said there is more money for the right move? With Margot going, and adding Marte, that is a net gain of $8.6 for 2020, still keeping us under $150M for 2020, and then when Oliveras, Kinsler, and Profar are off the books, that is $14M right there to cover the $12.5M for Marte in 2021.
#643 · December 6, 2019, 3:38 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 2:12 pmBefore last season Cronenworth was pretty average in every way.
Very little power....a little speed.....hitting .270 ish.
Hoping last season isn't the anomaly and buying high.
I realize he isn't the prize of the deal or anything....but let's not get ahead of ourselves either.
Is he really that much better than Owen Miller?
Miller hit better in AA and I imagine he will also dominate AAA and is 2 years younger.
I'm not complaining......I'm just gonna hold off getting excited about the minor piece is all.
Padres need the potential from BOTH Miller and Cronenworth ... both 2B/SS ... one RHH and one LHH.
Kinsler and Profar are FA after the season. Garcia (if not before) will be gone after 2021. France is not a SS/2B. Arias is maybe late 2021. Abrams maybe 2022.
So, even if they end up as the two reserve INF in 2021 that could create a big upgrade to the 26 man. Outside chance one can start (or they platoon) at 2B.
Padres drop a lot in payroll if Kinsler - Profar - Garcia are gone in 2021 and two are replaced by two league minimum types who are young, versatile, energetic with some level of skill.
#644 · December 6, 2019, 3:41 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 2:52 pmSo apparently the Pirates are looking for a top Catching prospect in any deal for Marte.
Are we willing to deal Mejia or Campusano plus, in a deal for Marte?
Say Margot/Campusano/Bolanos?
A different train of thought for PIT, based on if they go full rebuild or not. Many think they will go full rebuild. Bleacher Report ranks there system as #17 at the end of the 19 season, dropping two spots from the start of the year. And not a lot of high ceiling types according to them. So if they do go full rebuild, PIT should/would also trade Bell as well to really jump start the process. So PIT might not have interest in Margot, he is starting arb, and may not be there when the window opens. Plus, there #4 prospect according to MLB/Bleacher Report is CFer Swaggerty, who could be ready around 2021. None of their pitching prospects are rated above Tier 3 at this time.
France (lets them trade Bell), Morejon becomes their best pitching prospect, Hunt or Torrens the catching prospect, Gettys (can play CF for 1 season to bridge gap to Swaggerty, and Lawson who probably falls into their Top 15 and their 4th best pitching prospect.
Morejon, Hunt/Torrens, Lawson, France, Gettys for Marte.
#645 · December 6, 2019, 4:04 pm
IF the thinking is adding a regular RF and let Grisham get his reps in CF .... we should loop back to Haniger from Seattle before chasing Marte.
A number of teams have prioritized CF and in this winter that is Marte ... so his trade price is just going up. Plus “just 2 years and $11.5MM” and puts him on the same control line as Pham.
Jump to Haniger ... not a CF ... has 3 years control and now only at $3MM. Longer control / lower cost but as a corner OF (coming off injury) is in less demand. Maybe he is the better value in a trade for the Padres.
Good chance the Padres could get Haniger for a lot less (avoiding the elite prospects) with less competition and Seattle really needing a ton for their future and prospect pitching could be a big selling point since it may be near term benefit.
Not critical but after adding Pham for 2 years would look to the next OF add being 3 years or more for more stabilize succession planning. All about building a sustaining 26 man roster.
#646 · December 6, 2019, 4:21 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 4:04 pmIF the thinking is adding a regular RF and let Grisham get his reps in CF .... we should loop back to Haniger from Seattle before chasing Marte.
I guess you dont consider Patino elite then? I kid because that is who Bowden suggested that we use in trade for Haniger. 🙂
In reality, there are two potential issues with Haniger over Marte.
One, I have heard many times that Dipoto has no interest in trading Haniger after a down year due to injuries. And Marte is definitely available.
Two, since Haniger is cheaper and under control for longer, doesnt that make the prospect package to SEA greater? Hence, requiring better prospects. It could be argued that PIT, if going into a full rebuild, could be convinced to go for quantity over quality at the first stages of rebuild.
#647 · December 6, 2019, 4:59 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 6, 2019, 4:21 pmQuote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 4:04 pmIF the thinking is adding a regular RF and let Grisham get his reps in CF .... we should loop back to Haniger from Seattle before chasing Marte.
I guess you dont consider Patino elite then? I kid because that is who Bowden suggested that we use in trade for Haniger. 🙂
In reality, there are two potential issues with Haniger over Marte.
One, I have heard many times that Dipoto has no interest in trading Haniger after a down year due to injuries. And Marte is definitely available.
Two, since Haniger is cheaper and under control for longer, doesnt that make the prospect package to SEA greater? Hence, requiring better prospects. It could be argued that PIT, if going into a full rebuild, could be convinced to go for quantity over quality at the first stages of rebuild.
Don't care what Bowden thinks ... Patino is not being dealt in any of the deals being discussed.
A key difference in the trade value of Marte v Haniger is the fact that CF is an in demand position with bidders that will hype Marte's cost (add that Marte is healthy and just better).
Despite his overt reluctance to deal Haniger coming off injury ... part of that may be due to not having a lot of calls on Haniger with any good offers. Padres could pony a very good package (without Patino or the elite prospects) that could dislodge DiPoto's position. Padres would take the risk of Haniger's health / rebound off DiPoto and DiPoto getting less next year (with one less control year).
IF the Padres are willing to bid closer to the healthy Haniger ... not sure DiPoto could resist.
All positions are negotiable and will settle on the value that works for both teams ... which usually are different.
#648 · December 6, 2019, 5:55 pm
Sort of moment to step back ... evaluate the full set of moves to date ... before the next wave hits (and there likely is a next wave. In sort of a spin-off of one of my earlier posts.
If we start with the objective of moving to .500 in 2020 as a stepping stone ... that is 11 more wins. At this point, SF - AZ - COLO has done basically zip to improve and SD has (should by itself create more wins). Then:
Strong argument for adding wins: Tatis (full season); Pham > Renfroe; Davies > Lauer; Lamet (full season);
Good argument for adding wins: Richards (full season); Mejia's offense (full season) > Hedges defensive value; Grisham (LHH platoon with Margot) > Margot; Pomeranz > Erlin; Castillo (full season).
Vague (but possible pluses) to adding wins: Phan as an on-base guy in the #2 slot helps both Tatis at #1 to get better pitches and creates more RBI opportunities for Machado / Hosmer behind; Machado "settling in" SD and with Dickerson / Kirby a comfort zone unleashes his potential seen in BALT.
Roll the dice but maybe: Profar at 2B could / should generate greater impact than the collection of 2B used in 2019.
Thinking +11 wins is already realistic. Adding another +8 or +9 to get into the playoff hunt might be a different story without a bit more firepower in 2020.
#649 · December 6, 2019, 6:02 pm
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/04/02/tommy-pham-st-louis-cardinals
Not sure you like Pham?....read this.
I think he’s gonna play like his pants are on Fire the next two years to get the contract he feels he has deserved for 10 years.
#650 · December 7, 2019, 9:37 am
An alternate fact about Pham ...
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/tommy-phams-value-may-dip-but-not-because-hes-a-padre/
He had never recorded a BABIP below .333 in any of his four previous seasons, and through the end of May, Pham had a .346 BABIP that looked quite normal for him. Then, all of a sudden, he stopped BABIPing. Pham’s rates for the next three months were .288. ,265 and .303, though he did rebound for a .338 BABIP in September. His .299 BABIP over those four months combined is normal for most hitters but unusually low for him.