Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 7:54 am

Still a lot of "future" 2B in the system.

Short run: Cronenworth, Miller, Quiroz ... maybe not high ceiling but one could be servicable

Coming quickly with some high celling: Abrams and Arias ... both are set to write their own timetable

Maybe surprises: E.Rosario, Marcano

Clearly Edwards was move from a position of strength in the system.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 6, 2019, 8:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 7:05 am

“Win now” makes this trade good.

A good trade for winning now: Pham > Renfroe; Padres pick up about $8MM in payroll; Cronsworth < Edwards.

Actually with Renfroe estimated at $3.4M and Pham estimated at $8.6M, that is only a jump of $5.2M. With all that being said, I have SD now around a $140M-141M payroll for the start of 2020, including the buyouts of Warren and Loup, and the dead money of Oliveras.

Could clear out almost $3M with trade of Hedges, and of course any Myers monies saved in a potential trade. Could SD go to $150M this season, and then still keep a Dickerson sign in play. Or if they go to $150M give or take, means a play for Marte could be in play as well.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2019, 9:01 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 6, 2019, 6:02 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 3:33 am

I like Pham......but Edwards?

Really?

 

Edwards ceiling is like 760 OPS just saying dude has Zero Power I love his hit/speed/D combo but basically a 3 tool player.. Cronsworth 5 tool player ..ready for MLB fits window .. Fangraphs had Edwards #12 in our system Consworth #17 in TB.. Likely like #13-#14 innours if not higher.. Age 25 (was drafted at 21 yrs old) sort of reminds me of a young Whit and with teams only carrying 13 potxhers has tremdoua value as a 14th P..

Yes.  Cronenworth takes the deal from dubious to clear win for Padres:  He's less athletic, much older, less upside than Edwards, but ready now for MLB, LH, and led the much less hitter friendly International League/AAA in both BA & OBP:  .334 /.429!!    Not a "fluke"; has always gotten on base, but was a HUGE jump in #'s from prior year.  Plus the bonus of that emergency RP in extra innings or blowouts; could preclude having to option a guy down for 15 days minimum (vs 10 last year) b/c he went too long in a meaningless game; definitely "hidden" value.

Really a very similar offensive profile to Urias; looks like less power but more speed.... but LH!   His long term profile is probably a bench/utility guy, but sure looks like he could be starting 2B next or maybe even this year.  Would have needed a stopgap next year for Edwards.  Has mostly played SS in Minors, so may want him exposed more regularly to 2B in AAA for a few months?   Probably make that judgement in ST.  Writing on the wall for Garcia at some point.

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 9:20 am

Kinsler (1 year), Profar (1 year), Garcia (2 years), and France. Too early to assess the moving parts (except Kinsler will be gone after 2020). Will Profar be good enough to justify extending him (and his already elevated salary)? Will Cronenworth and/or Miller and/or Quiroz look good enough in AAA to allow moving on from the others? Are Garcia and/or useful trade chips (maybe as the second or third piece in a deal)?

Just need to buy time for Abrams - Arias - Marcano - E.Rosario while still trying to win in 2020-21.

Betting a lot on Profar in 2020 ... his power at 2B (even without the BA) may deliver the OPS for upgrade there.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2019, 9:23 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 6, 2019, 8:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 7:05 am

“Win now” makes this trade good.

A good trade for winning now: Pham > Renfroe; Padres pick up about $8MM in payroll; Cronsworth < Edwards.

Actually with Renfroe estimated at $3.4M and Pham estimated at $8.6M, that is only a jump of $5.2M. With all that being said, I have SD now around a $140M-141M payroll for the start of 2020, including the buyouts of Warren and Loup, and the dead money of Oliveras.

Could clear out almost $3M with trade of Hedges, and of course any Myers monies saved in a potential trade. Could SD go to $150M this season, and then still keep a Dickerson sign in play. Or if they go to $150M give or take, means a play for Marte could be in play as well.

Yup.  Me too:  140 MM incl min. salary guys filling out 25-man.   The 2 big questions are:

1.  Is 140 MM a "hard" or "soft" payroll limit for the Padres.  Team today could be the team we see in ST.
2. Whether it is or not, do Pads still pursue a partial Salary dump of Myers?

This is a really tough call.  I'd maintained that the only reason you do this would be to acquire a TOR SP, but now I wonder....  Pham is going to play every day.  Margot will definitely lose time vs RHP to Grisham.  Grisham's already the 4th guy, so if Myers is there, HAVE to play him to try to (re)build his value.  5th OF, likely a LH, maybe plays more than many MLB teams, but still hard to develop that guy (Naylor or Cordero) without playing him.  But LF feels really unsettled for a "win now" team less Myers, and if you subtract Myers but add say Corey Dickerson, the 5th OF would be even more blocked...

I don't know.  Pads at least have luxury of SOME time now with Pham on board of waiting to see how the markets for Castellanos & especially Ozuna play out, as well as if there's an unlikely but not impossible turn down in the very top SP's due to limited teams involved / budget constraints.  What's still possible after other teams keep making moves might determine whether or not we pull trigger on Myers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 9:24 am

One down (Renfroe) and two to go (Hedges, Myers). Need better offense (OBP) and a clean break from the under preforming past is needed to win in 2020-21.

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2019, 9:38 am

Have to think there will be another OF upgrade ... CF or RF for a more proven player in a win 2020-21 environment.

My bump OF is:

Starters: Pham (2 years control) - Margot (3 years) - Myers (3 years)

Starter / reserve: Grisham (LHH ... 6 years) - Naylor (LHH ... 6 years)

Maybes: Cordero (LHH ... 4 years) - Olivares (6 years) - Trammell (LHH - 6 years)

After the three "starters" a lot of unproven upside for a team looking to start winning and contending in 2021. Plus we are concerned about the ML performance of Margot - Myers being worth of a contending team.

Myers is clearly in play to move but IF the really like Grisham and think Pham provides some insurance in CF to start the season ... Margot could be in play. Upgrade could be in CF or RF.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 10:01 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 6, 2019, 6:02 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2019, 3:33 am

I like Pham......but Edwards?

Really?

 

Edwards ceiling is like 760 OPS just saying dude has Zero Power I love his hit/speed/D combo but basically a 3 tool player.. Cronsworth 5 tool player ..ready for MLB fits window .. Fangraphs had Edwards #12 in our system Consworth #17 in TB.. Likely like #13-#14 innours if not higher.. Age 25 (was drafted at 21 yrs old) sort of reminds me of a young Whit and with teams only carrying 13 potxhers has tremdoua value as a 14th P..

Not every baseball player has to hit homeruns to be productive.

Using OPS to judge a player like Edwards is foolish IMO.

OBP,steals and runs scored + defense.

 

I get that we are in "win now" mode...I've been saying it all along that these prospects aren't gonna do Preller any good if he's out of work in 1-2 years.

So I get it.

I just wish we could have given up someone else besides Edwards.

Everyone has a prospect or two they are anxious to see in S.D.

We need to win in 20-21' or we may regret losing Edwards  once he hits Tampa....plus Pham will be gone.....all I'm saying.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2019, 10:11 am

Quote from TatisJr on December 5, 2019, 8:49 pm

Tommy Pham is a Padre! Hunter and X going there way. Wow! More details to come in.

 

Tatis, Pham, Machado is a nice 1,2,3. I’ve always really liked Phams game. Renfroe and X is a steep price. I could see both having very nice careers. The FO must think a lot of Owen Miller, CJ Abrams, Esteban Quiroz. This deal proves to me the Padres are intent on opening that contention window RIGHT NOW.

Agree.  Top 3 in lineup look really good.  I'd love to experiment with Tatis #2 to provide more RBI opportunity with his power, and Pham sure looks leadoff capable, though with his experience & patience likely a "better" #2 hitter profile than Tatis right now.  Whatever.  Either fine....

... and I'm OK with Hosmer cleanup 75% of the time vs RHP with a .781 OPS & tends to do better with guys on base.  BUT he shouldn't be on field let alone #4 or 5 in lineup with his .600 (!?) OPS in significant # of PA vs LHP.   At the moment, I'd move Myers (.877 vs LHP) up to cleanup from 5-6 vs RHP... and secret weapon Profar (.835 vs LHP!) taking Hosmer's place batting 5-6 vs LHP....

... but more moves on offense may be on the way.