Quote from Brian Connelly on October 10, 2019, 11:22 am

If they pushed #1-3 ... opens up $15.9MM for a plus FA signing.

True.... but that would be 8 guys off roster for the $ to sign one?

It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that Myers is the OF that is going to get traded.  Renfroe's definitely injury affected 2nd 1/2 fall off a cliff is potentially good news, but destroys his current trade value.  Margot is cementing himself as a short side platoon guy vs LHP.

Pairing Myers + Lauer (or Lucchesi) +maybe prospect/s as previously suggested for nominal return should eliminate at least 75% of Myers' contract = 15 MM next year AND next 2 years... without sacrificing 1/3 of your roster to do so.  Flexibility about how to spend that $  to improve next year's team.  SP obvious choice, but what about THIS idea:

Trade Margot (& Jankowski?) + a significant prospect/s to Boston for Mookie Betts + 5 MM.  = "Net" cost of 20 MM to Pads next year.  This makes more sense than it sounds like when factoring in Betts 27-28MM projected Arb salary with only 1 year control.  Boston solves payroll issue with their former draftee; gets 2 WAR /year x 3 vs. 7 WAR/year x 1 plus big $ savings plus avoid payroll penalty  plus higher end prospect/s that are closer to MLB than comp draft picks if they lose Betts after next year.  Already there's speculation they might trade him & re-sign him as FA.

Bottom line:  Padres would gain net roughly 3 - 4 WAR while incurring only about 5 MM additional payroll in 2020 (27  MM Betts - 15 MM Myers/SP trade - 5 MM from Boston - 2 MM Margot).  Do still owe Myers 5 MM x 3, but gain 15 MM/yr savings next 2 years.  Clear Net at least two 40-man spots.   Lose significant prospects, but not "foundational" ones (Gore, Trammell, Patino) and a MLB LH SP, but backfill some with Comp pick/s when Betts (possibly G. Richards too) leave as Qualifying Offer FA.   Replacement players @ LF & SP wouldn't have too high a bar to clear to not lose additonal WAR.

What I love about this idea is that clearing 30 MM of Myers' $ in 2020-21 seems like it makes it possible to sign a good FA SP (Strasburg?) this offseason too.  They might have to "only" get 10 MM in 2019 with a big bump in 2020 when Betts, Richards, Olivera & Kinsler (dead $) fall off payroll:  40 MM+.  Pads have Betts' replacement in Trammell; but hard pressed to replace his production... more likely to spread that $ around in 2020... arb raises/extensions, then likely Corner OF?  Bullpen?  Biggest draft # picks/flexiblilty since 2016 to buttress system from bottom up.

 

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 10, 2019, 11:27 am

Regardless of the way the season ended for the Dodgers and the shortcomings they had in the bullpen...they are still the yardstick and the team to beat in the NL West and the Padres still have alot of mountain to climb to get close to knocking them off the top ledge.

Playoff baseball will always show any weakness in a team and their ability to either falter or overcome

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 10, 2019, 11:33 am

"Technical" question on upcoming Roster moves 5 days after World Series.

10 guys have to go off 40-man.  Presume Warren & Loup get bought out.  That leaves 8.  Of those 8, some are likely to be Arb eligible guys like Erlin, some pre-Arb guys like Yardley.

I assume the pre-Arb guys to be removed from Roster are Designated for Assignment (DFA); meaning Padres could retain control of them if they are not claimed on Waivers by another team.

But what about the Arb Eligible guys?  Are they DFA also at this point in October, or are they "Non-Tendered", which means just not extended a contract offer, so immediately become FA (Pads can't retain control unless player chooses to re-sign; presumably as Minors FA like might happen with Carl Edwards Jr.)

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 11:33 am

Does not seem to be in the current LAD DNA to spend big on FA.

Plus in Ryu’s case ... 33 next year ... not the healthiest past .... excellent when pitching .... and Boras is his agent. Boras will go BIG in his demands ... LAD will go with their young (and talented starters) and use money on the pen, if they use much money at all.

Guessing Cole ... other than a courtesy inquired ... will not be in their future with the big money from LAA or PHIL being the winner ... maybe TEX as they go to the new stadium.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 10, 2019, 12:03 pm

Of course they will build up the bullpen...but if they drop payroll 50-60 mil I suspect they will spend it somewhere besides just the Pen.

There could be rumblings too about Dave Roberts.

Winning the Division 4 straight seasons and no Championships won't sit well as the offseason wears on.

I could see if they make a change at Manager they may also want to make a splash with someone like Cole(or Strasburg).

Cole-Kershaw-Buehler-Ryu(if they resign him)-May would be pretty tough rotation to top.

Their offense is pretty much set and should get even better with a full season of Lux at 2b and Seager another year healthier.

Bottom line...they will be as good or better next season so we need to make more strides towards .500 at minimum.

I want 80+ wins in our new Brown Uni's!

#pinstripeswillrock

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 10, 2019, 12:07 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 10, 2019, 11:27 am

Regardless of the way the season ended for the Dodgers and the shortcomings they had in the bullpen...they are still the yardstick and the team to beat in the NL West and the Padres still have alot of mountain to climb to get close to knocking them off the top ledge.

Playoff baseball will always show any weakness in a team and their ability to either falter or overcome

All we have to do is climb up to WC 2.. The rest as you can see is about postseason baby

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 12:11 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 10, 2019, 11:33 am

"Technical" question on upcoming Roster moves 5 days after World Series.

10 guys have to go off 40-man.  Presume Warren & Loup get bought out.  That leaves 8.  Of those 8, some are likely to be Arb eligible guys like Erlin, some pre-Arb guys like Yardley.

I assume the pre-Arb guys to be removed from Roster are Designated for Assignment (DFA); meaning Padres could retain control of them if they are not claimed on Waivers by another team.

But what about the Arb Eligible guys?  Are they DFA also at this point in October, or are they "Non-Tendered", which means just not extended a contract offer, so immediately become FA (Pads can't retain control unless player chooses to re-sign; presumably as Minors FA like might happen with Carl Edwards Jr.)

As I understand it ... DFA if they are eligible to be assigned to the minors or just put on release waivers if they are not (which has to do with ML service time as I understand it or eligible to be minor league FA).

A Yardley could clear waivers and be assigned to the minors with the Padres retaining control. Someone like Kinsler would be on release waivers. Think Erlin can refuse assignment with 5 years of ML service.

All that sets the 40 man, then in early December (I think) the non-tender deadline becomes an issue. So, for example, if they did not want to DFA Jankowski in the initial cut because they were looking to use him as a trade chip but couldn’t find a partner ... non-tender him to avoid the arbitration salary, he becomes a FA, and a roster spot is cleared (maybe for a FA signing). Think the timing is after the Rule 5 roster is set ... can reduce the 40 man but can’t add someone to protect.

Of course in reality we are talking about a lot of “fringe” players .... so the more straight forward approach of just axing the ones they are willing to move on from out of the excess (pure skill or overpriced skill evaluation or back-up insurance). Their criteria.

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 12:28 pm

I know we have all written off Kinsler for 2020 but I offer a scenario (based on pure financial issue) for keeping him:

Kinsler is owed $3.750MM ... would be dead money paid if he is gone

Garcia should get $1.700MM .. if retained via arbitration

One could argue that releasing Kinsler and retaining Garcia would make the effective price of Garcia $5.450MM (arb decision plus what is owed to Kinsler). Is Garcia worth that? Is Garcia $1.700MM more valuable than Kinsler?

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Cut both and replace with a league minimum body? Still owe the Kinsler money ... so is the league minimum TBD player $550K more valuable than Kinsler?

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Financial choice since clearly there are folks who don’t like Kinsler .. don’t like Garcia ... but love TBD who has done nothing to upset us ... yet.

Maybe more of a discussion that we think at first ... given we are discussing three “fringe” options from a non-contender.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 10, 2019, 1:55 pm

"Is Garcia $1.700MM more valuable than Kinsler?"

 

Short answer....yes.
I think we will keep Garcia....versatile LH off the bench who gets on base and local boy.

But I guess that could change depending on who's available at league minimum.

But I  wouldn't lose any sleep if they didn't either.