Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2019, 10:06 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2019, 5:54 pm

According to MLBTR, both Diaz and Avila have both signed MiL contracts back with SD.

Good news.  Both definitely have promise.  Think healthy Diaz is > RP than Perdomo, but has to get healthy first.

Win-win.  Pads don't have to pay MLB $ & service time and clog 40-man with Injured guys who can't play opening day (not sure about Diaz' knee surgery?  Sounded significant).  Players get to stick with org that knows them & push their way back.  Definite possibility for both.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 10:08 am

Hamels signs with the Braves .... 1 year / $18MM.

Well he said he wanted to go the a legit contender .... he has.

More pressure on WASH, PHIL, and METS to push on making moves since ATL has had all the big action so far?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 11:35 am

Phillies Reach Agreement With Zack Wheeler

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2019 at 1:21pm CDT

The Phillies have reached an agreement to sign free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, Marc Carig of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). The Jet Sports Management client will take home more than $100MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that it’s a five-year pact.

.... Wow!  That was quick!  Least surprising development ever how in demand he was.  Minor surprise to me he didn't end up with 6th year @ 20 MM+ AAV.  Curious to see where it lands...  If it's 5/120 or more (24 AAV+) he definitely did the right thing to re-hit FA again @ 34 y.o.

5 minutes later.... 1:28pm: Wheeler’s contract will guarantee him just shy of $120MM, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 12:04 pm

Now what if you're Pads?

Rarified air of Stras or even Cole @ 6-8 years @ 30 MM AAV+ but with fewer teams competing for their services, and some degree of advantage with SD / SoCal?

Or more manageable but more "limited" &/or risky Bumgarner or Ryu @ 3-5 years @ 17-20 MM AAV range?

It became obvious almost immediately that Wheeler was going to > MLBTR estimate of 5/100.  Seems like all those teams that just missed (In the end, Wheeler also drew varying levels of interest from the White Sox, Reds, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays) now turn their attention to MadBum (&/or Ryu)...  his projection is 4/72 = 18 AAV.  Am I nuts, or doesn't it seem like he's going to wind up around 5/100?  Perception is he's more on the "downside", while Wheeler's arrow is up, but MadBum is only 1 year older & the "downside" is from at some points very best #1 SP in baseball...

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 12:04 pm

Wheeler topped the estimates of around $100MM/5 by a 18% ... he should be happy and probably was smart to jump quickly.

FA pitcher market is moving surprisingly quickly this year .... maybe all the parties (other than the elite) are not seeing the upside of waiting and maybe becoming the next Keuchel or Kimbel.

Now ATL adds Hamels ... PHIL adds Wheeler .... even more pressure on the METS to make a move ... more pressure on WASH to resign Strasburg and/or Rendon?

Across the board more pressure for activity at the winter meeting with FOMO for all the teams.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2019, 12:19 pm

I can easily see both Strasburg and Cole getting AAV in the $32-35MM range ... Cole at 8 years and Strasburg at 6 but both could squeeze out an extra year. LAA appear to be poised to push the ceiling up for at least one. Doubt the Padres can play in that game AND still fix the offensive holes.

Probably both Ryu and MadBum are still being considered by the Padres but the AAV (using Hamels as a low) will be? $20MM+. Ryu 3-4 years? MadBum the same.

If WASH gets Strasburg and LAA gets Cole ... still a lot of teams to go after those last two bodies.

Going to be hard for the Padres to get that TOR arm as supply diminishes and demand remains high.

Quote from TatisJr on December 4, 2019, 12:22 pm

Sounds like G. Cole ends up with Angels. That’s fine by me. I thought the Dodgers might end up with him and that terrified me. I expect Stras to return to the Nats. Looking at what Ryu and Bum should get in this market, I’d prefer the Padres pass on them.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2019, 1:10 pm

As I stew about how to get (at least) both a TOR SP AND an "everyday OF capable of hitting RH& LHP" with Payroll at 135 MM...

... leaving maybe 5 MM plus 15 MM from a Myers + MLB SP trade out = 20 MM = not enough $$...

I keep arriving at the same conclusion:  Pads may have to move someone with a Salary between Myers and Kinsler.

Moving Renfroe, Hedges, Margot for 2-3 MM each while creating holes just doesn't help enough with $$  (unless they're directly involved in a positional upgrade like Margot in deal for Marte, etc)...

Pomeranz not going anywhere, so that leaves:  much discussed  Yates (Est 6.5 MM) - would create a big hole, unlikely Profar (5.7 MM)... or  SP:  Richards (8.5 MM+ up to 2.5 MM incentives).... or Davies (Est 5.0 MM)

I literally think Davies' value has risen since Preller acquired him.  SP's so far have come in > projections, Bumgarner already seems almost certain to also.   I would shop both Richards & Davies (with a new SP signed), but think could already get back more for Davies than what it cost to get him; his youth, health, consistency, & 2 year cheap control barely more than 1 yr of Richards = less exciting, but maybe more desirable to any # of teams trying to fill out back of rotation.

Signing a better P would create the ability to possibly trade 1 of these 2 guys to save 5-10 MM more in 2020 if Preller feels comfortable there's enough SP depth that the $ is better spent elsewhere (likely OF).

 

Quote from JasonE135 on December 4, 2019, 1:14 pm

I am sure we will pass. I do not expect any major free agent adds this year anymore. We probably never should have. Ownership said they were not going to spend big. Look to trades. I expect 1 big one and nothing else this offseason.