Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 8:04 am

Quote from hoffy51 on November 28, 2019, 7:35 am

I give up. Who is TOR?

Yes, the hard to find and illusive Top Of the Rotation pitcher. In the wild many pitchers who are not really TOR (or past their prime TOR) are mis-labeled as TOR and purchased for excessive monies. In captivity true TOR arms are rarely traded, so be careful that the trade target is not an illusionary TOR (never will be or past prime).

IF one true TOR arm is identified ... be prepared to pay a massive ransom to add them to your zoo.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 28, 2019, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 6:23 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 27, 2019, 5:43 pm

Any chance Yates is traded before the season starts?

Or most likely at the deadline depending on our record?

 

Top closer at $6.5MM (but with only 2020 under control) should appeal to a contender BUT they would likely only want to part with a prospect(s) or some “marginal” ML players ... not the TOR or impact OF the Padres want.

Padres are not going to trade Yates just to save the $6.5MM this winter or take prospects / marginal ML players. (Maybe at the trade deadline if clearly out of contention).

However, Yates bundled with others may be available if a TOR was available (but that is not likely) or the impact corner OF (maybe). Then ... to a contender with money ... Yates get bundled with Myers (and maybe a prospect) for no return just to move over $20MM.

Maybe a Yates - Margot package is a basis for Conforto from the Mets? Padres take the risk on Grisham in CF full time?

Still like the possibility of the Yates - Myers - prospect base of a deal to either WASH or PHIL since they both have the money, real need for a strong end of game RP to contend with ATL, and actually could use Myers .... WASH (1B) or PHIL (LF). Padres use the added payroll space to sign the TOR arm (Ryu).

Still I would put Yates being dealt at about 10:1.

 

I don't think Yates "helps" in a Myers deal b/c he's in last year of contract.  He's too valuable a player (WAR) to just trade to save $; but b/c he's in last year, another team simply can't pay that much of a premium to get him; even if their intent might be to extend him before he hits FA?

The Davies for Lauer trade to me illustrates the value inherent in a cheap long control just OK somewhat established MLB SP:

Davies est for 5.0 MM this year, let's say 50% increase next year to 7.5 MM.   2 vs 5 yrs control for Lauer, but he's a better SP.

A little over simplistic, but suggests to me that Lauer (in a Myers trade) with essentially "nothing" back would be worth 12-15 MM.

Lucchesi only 4 yrs control, but better than Lauer = close to same value, maybe 15-18 MM?  Quantrill & others 6 yrs control, but less proven, but possibly similar value in 15 MM range?   Yates definitely worth SOMETHING in trade, but not 15 MM on top of 6.5 MM.

If goal of trading Myers/saving $ is to apply it to a TOR SP, I would include a 40-man SP in the trade to save more $.   If NOT getting a TOR type SP, I wouldn't include the SP just to save more $.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 10:15 am

Basically agree although alternatives and desperation play a part in valuing any of the parts in a deal.

Key for the Padres part of the equation is who they will use the freed up money as an add. That may size the other parts of a deal to move Myers if they move him at all.

Key for the buyers to take Myers (and his contract) is a combo of where they stand in relationship to contending and critical needs.

IF a contender really needs a elite closer to make and advance in the playoffs ... elite closers on an AVV basis are mid-teen dollars .... and at the moment none are out there to get ... the useful value of Yates is maybe $8MM+/- greater than his pay for his 1 year without considering the lack of alternatives. So for certain teams, Yates is worth a lot.

Admittedly attaching Myers to Yates is a long-shot ... especially considering the outer years of Myers ... Yates’ “excess value” probably offsets Myers’ over pay in 2020. So adding some value via another player / prospect to offset Myers in shortfall in 2021-22 would be the open issue. Think Lucchesi could easily fill that void with 4 control years and value in 2020 to a contender needing a 5th SP .... so probably could a menu of non blue chip prospect options (maybe buyer’s choice).

Since I don’t think trading Yates will get anything significant enough to offset the loss of Yates closing in 2020 by himself (or even with prospects) ... no trade seems the probability with the sole exception of the tie with Myers to clear salary to in turn “buy” a major FA SP. A lot has to fall in line for that to work ... so not likely either.

Conclusion: Yates in the Padres’ 2020 closer until the trade deadline then rethink.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2019, 12:06 pm

I still think our best chance of moving Myers is to a non contending team that needs to “add” payroll and would pay Myers contract to gain a couple prospects.

Miami,Balt,Det,KC.....

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 12:30 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 28, 2019, 12:06 pm

I still think our best chance of moving Myers is to a non contending team that needs to “add” payroll and would pay Myers contract to gain a couple prospects.

Miami,Balt,Det,KC.....

Agree ... my favorite is still DET ... they have money (although the new generation owners are a bit more frugal) ... have an almost non-existent payroll (except for Cabrera) ... a poor farm system ... and unlikely to sign any major (costly) FA with their prognosis for the foreseeable future.

They could (and probably should) take Myers’ contract and a volume of very good (but not the blue chippers) just to build some credibility.

Myers with the some combo of Allen, Naylor, Cordero, Olivera, Quantrill, Bolanos. Lawson .... not all mind you ... but some combo actually would make sense for Detroit. The are “only” giving up money to build a future and some immediate credibility. As it stands, not sure anyone will come to their games and that actually costs them. Could make back some of the Myers’ money just with improved fan engagement with the new “prospects”.

Not sure the new owner in KC is ready to take on payroll and it appears that BALT has an agenda of reducing a very low payroll by DFA Villar and apparently trying to deal Bundy leaving them without much payroll wise except the great Chris Davis who is their version of Detroit’s Cabrera.

Miami may be a wild card .. not sure on their finances but at least they appear to be working on near term improvement.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2019, 3:15 pm

Yes a team like Detroit would actually improve with Myers and at least he’s a player most fans have heard of.

If we paid a portion of his salary....maybe $8 mil a year and gave them Myers/Allen/Bolanos that should do it.

Lets face it.....I doubt Allen or Bolanos have a place on the 2021- Padres anyway.

We take back a teenager with at least a small chance of becoming a true prospect.

With this move we have the money to sign Dickerson or,in a long shot,enough to add with what we can still spend to get Ryu or maybe even Strasburg.

Im thinking the rest of our offseason is on hold waiting to see if AJ can move Wil.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2019, 4:10 pm

MrP, I think I would prefer adding in a couple of additional level prospects as mentioned by Fenn, and having DET take all the Myers money.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 28, 2019, 5:35 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 28, 2019, 3:15 pm

Yes a team like Detroit would actually improve with Myers and at least he’s a player most fans have heard of.

If we paid a portion of his salary....maybe $8 mil a year and gave them Myers/Allen/Bolanos that should do it.

Lets face it.....I doubt Allen or Bolanos have a place on the 2021- Padres anyway.

We take back a teenager with at least a small chance of becoming a true prospect.

With this move we have the money to sign Dickerson or,in a long shot,enough to add with what we can still spend to get Ryu or maybe even Strasburg.

Im thinking the rest of our offseason is on hold waiting to see if AJ can move Wil.

 

I don't think is "on hold" per say.. I just think dishing out Big $$ (FA) is sort of on hold but maybe fluid .. At the end of the day if they can land Stras at 6/175.. And ownership agrees as long as Myers (entire contract ) s off the boiks then I coukd see AJP making a deal with tge devil and moving Patino for someone to take on 100% of Myers .. In essence trading Myers + Patino and a 2nd rd pick (Q offer comp on Stras) for 6 yrs of Strasburg.. A deal I personally would do 10 out of 10 times..

 

Now of the end result was Ryu for 4/60 or Wheeler for 5/100 .. Not sure Patino would be justifiable.. More like can we do it without using Patino at all more like a 3 spec combo in the Bolanos + Morejon + Potts realm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2019, 6:18 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2019, 4:10 pm

MrP, I think I would prefer adding in a couple of additional level prospects as mentioned by Fenn, and having DET take all the Myers money.

More?.....Sure.

Better?.....Not me.
But if it was a definite that Strasburg would be ours that could make the difference.

So it  matters more “who” we are saving the money for.

I’m not losing Gore/Abrams/Patino/Trammell/Edwards just for the luxury of losing Myers.

“If” Strasburg has already put pen to paper and the only caveat is we have to move Myers......I could handle losing Myers and any number of guys not listed.

But to lose any of these guys just to save money and then not end up with Cole or Strasburg....or Rendon,doesn’t do anything for me.