Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2019, 11:02 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 8:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 8:00 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 12, 2019, 5:49 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 1:35 am

Since I don’t really see the Padres contend baring some weird luck in 2020 (2021 yes) moving both to set up a better 2021 and beyond may be strategic. For now can live with a Mejia / Torrens catching duo and with Trammell in line for CF (probably not worse than Margot) in late 2020 or 2021 moving Margot (for a value return) now may be worth the risk of an unproven CF in 2020.

If that is the case, then SD should use this off season to clean house and give some other players waiting in the wings a chance to see what SD has and needs going forward in 2021. Players that should move for the right deal. Myers, Margot, Hedges, and Kinsler. See what you have in Mejia, Torrens, and Gettys. Let Naylor refine his power game in AAA, let Cordero stay healthy in AAA, and then they can be moves to be made around the ASG break as reinforcements.

Still should be done this off season, sign Cole or Strasburg, Dickerson, and Akiyama. These moves along with a full year of Tatis, a better Urias, and a complete healthy year from Renfroe should keep SD right around the .500 mark and maybe 5-6 games out of the second WC spot. And that should keep the casual fan happy and keep Fowler off AJPs back for one last season. However, then 2021 really becomes a put up or shut up season for the FO.

My names may be slightly different but that is my view ... do some housecleaning of the players that they don’t see as the future ... give the internal prospects more ML development time .... sign / trade only if the deal is good for players have long term value.

If they see that opportunity in a FA such as Cole or Strasburg ... and not seeing that recurring next winter ... got to strike if you can.

Side: baring a total failure in 2020 don’t really see Preller at risk .... however after 2021 that may be a different story (1 year left on his and Tingler’s contracts). Has to be some consideration of 2021 being the Gore - Patino - Trammell full debut season ... maybe Edwards plus time to see the full maturation of Paddack, Tatis, Mejia. Hard to justify axing Preller when the fruits of his 5 year plan (that Fowler bought into) are just arriving.

Cant be playoffs or Bust with 20% of your roster and 40% of your SP being rookies??? just saying

I wouldn't say it is playoffs or bust but Ron Fowler was very plain when he said we had to start winning or heads will roll.

I would think there is a number(of losses) that could cost AJ his job even after this season.

It might be high.....like 90....but I could see if we go 70-92 heads rolling.

"Especially" because as I said...I suspect some big moves made this year by Preller...and if those moves,combined with the Machado move...still don't get us near .500....it could get hairy around here.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2019, 11:28 am

In Acee’s piece today he says the Padres payroll for 2020 will top out between $130MM and $140MM.

So, that should be factored into coming attractions and eliminates that BIG move for Cole / Strasburg (baring some creative contract cash flow) without reducing some of the current contracts. Hard pressed to see contention in 2020 without one of them.

So, I guess that loops us back to using prospects to move Myers and Kinsler contracts ... and maybe move off Hedges, Renfroe, Margot, Garcia for lower cost options. Not all mind you but enough to get the big contract in while “adjusting” the OF cost / quality.

But Myers / Kinsler are the keys.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2019, 12:17 pm

Acee writes articles.....not checks.

So who knows how accurate this is.

Plus it could also change depending on success on trade targets.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 12:45 pm

sigh.   "Heads will roll if we don't win.... with our 130 MM payroll:  5 MM over last year".

"AND let's come out & say it right now, so any agent with a good player including Zack Wheeler can immediately run away & block our calls"

"Let's also telegraph that we have given up on Urias, so we can ensure we diminish his trade value as much as possible right as we try to trade him as a 6 yr control starting 2B or SS".  "We're giving up on the #30 MLB prospect from last year b/c the guy gave up too much AVG/OBP trying to hit for power... oh, wait, we told him to do that...  and he only had 23 HR anyway, so we're moving on to the #78 MLB prospect who hit .... 1 HR ... instead.  Don't worry, we're going to get him to alter his swing so he can hit for more power...."

:(:(:(

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:48 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 12:45 pm

sigh.   "Heads will roll if we don't win.... with our 130 MM payroll:  5 MM over last year".

"AND let's come out & say it right now, so any agent with a good player including Zack Wheeler can immediately run away & block our calls"

"Let's also telegraph that we have given up on Urias, so we can ensure we diminish his trade value as much as possible right as we try to trade him as a 6 yr control starting 2B or SS".  "We're giving up on the #30 MLB prospect from last year b/c the guy gave up too much AVG/OBP trying to hit for power... oh, wait, we told him to do that...  and he only had 23 HR anyway, so we're moving on to the #78 MLB prospect who hit .... 1 HR ... instead.  Don't worry, we're going to get him to alter his swing so he can hit for more power...."

:(:(:(

 

Payroll in 2019 was like $102mil... try +$40 mil.... and yes Myers +$15 mil plus is almost responsible for all the current payroll increases for 2020...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:49 pm

Yeah I been kicking this around and say we got Price + Benintendi on a Myers + Lucchesi + Naylor + Arias + Morejon + Mejia type deal

Then followed with a Contreras for Hedges + Quantrill swap

followed by a Urias + Weathers + France + Ona for WHIT

With a final trade of Meadows for Patino + Margot + Edwards

Concluding with a FA signing of Hamels + Billy Hamilton + Stanmen

1B Hosmer 2B WHIT SS Tatis Jr 3B Machado C- CONTRERAS LF BENINTENDI CF MEADOWS RF Renfroe.....

BENCH - HAMILTON + Torrens/Allen + Garcia + Kinsler + Mejia-Bream (other)

SP - PRICE/Paddack/HAMELS/Richards/Lamet

BP- CL - Yates/ Stanmen/Munoz/Castillo/Baez/Bednar/Lauer/Strahm

Minors ready at some point in 2020-- Gore/Patino/Bolanos/Cantillo...... Miller/Trammell/Campusano/Ornelas... with yet another wave following led by CJ Abrams down the road

15 out.. 7 new faces in... a big roster turn over-- but only giving up 2 of our top 6 prospects and gaining big time pieces in return who are controlled for many seasons to come.. maybe not the ideal SP adds BUT 2 Veteran Gamers who will be lights out at Petco and above avg on the road.. how fast Gore takes to go from elite prospect to borderline ACE (like Paddack) will dictate how fast we could go from WC2 type wild entry to WS favorites (a la Houston).. But I think something along these lines is whats going to happen in 2020 offseason -- 7 new face in our 26.. and like 15 current faces or top 30 specs out--- sounds like a lot, but really feasible for this farm that would still boast Gore/Tramell/Campusano/CJ/ Manea/Head/Ornelas/Mears/Bolanos/etc.. etc...after all the moves

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:52 pm

Meadows was a trade target of AJP at the deadline-- and talks took significant steps foward before falling apart -- again why would Meadows be available? But appearantely Rays were willing to listen then, so probably listening now.. and patino + Edwards + Margot is a very nice offer

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 1:07 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 12, 2019, 12:17 pm

Acee writes articles.....not checks.

So who knows how accurate this is.

Plus it could also change depending on success on trade targets.

 

But is this being fed to him by someone?  A smokescreen?  Trying to exert downward pressure on likely rising SP FA market with 0% control,?  100% speculation on his part?  Acee sure didn't WRITE it like that...

Have to assume he has some sources, but it is beyond me of what BENEFIT to the Padres the article (i.e. the leaked or freely given info to Acee from someone/s working for Pads) is, beyond letting teams know Preller is in wheeler dealer mode, which they probably already did.

It's not so much that anything in there is wildly surprising (we can't afford Cole, we might trade Urias, our total payroll is limited), it's that it's stated/laid out so matter of factly that it hurts much more than it helps the Pads' bargaining positions across multiple fronts.  Am I over-reacting?  Is this common knowledge?  Am I going nuts or wasn't there a post on MLBTR in the last week that Pads "would be" players for Strasburg--which I completely get is very risky--but this 100% contradicts?

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 1:30 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2019, 12:48 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2019, 12:45 pm

sigh.   "Heads will roll if we don't win.... with our 130 MM payroll:  5 MM over last year".

"AND let's come out & say it right now, so any agent with a good player including Zack Wheeler can immediately run away & block our calls"

"Let's also telegraph that we have given up on Urias, so we can ensure we diminish his trade value as much as possible right as we try to trade him as a 6 yr control starting 2B or SS".  "We're giving up on the #30 MLB prospect from last year b/c the guy gave up too much AVG/OBP trying to hit for power... oh, wait, we told him to do that...  and he only had 23 HR anyway, so we're moving on to the #78 MLB prospect who hit .... 1 HR ... instead.  Don't worry, we're going to get him to alter his swing so he can hit for more power...."

:(:(:(

 

Payroll in 2019 was like $102mil... try +$40 mil.... and yes Myers +$15 mil plus is almost responsible for all the current payroll increases for 2020...

Wrong.  Ending 2019 payroll was about 125 MM.   CURRENT estimated 2020 payroll with dead $, known salaries, arb estimates, and 600K x # of minimum salary guys needed to fill roster (12 right now) is 120 MM.  This assumes perfect health (no one on IL) all season and no "Stammen" (or other FA vet RP taking his place).  If "Stammen" (re) signs, right at 125 MM+/-

Pads (or at least Acee as proxy) are coming right out & saying they will only raise payroll 4 - 12% overall (+ 5-15 MM) from both last year & current levels (assumes re-sign or replace Stammen @  4-5 MM) to move from a 70-win team to a "win now or heads will roll" team led by a rookie Manager whose highest managing level was Arizona rookie league.  If you're a Free Agent, are you headed to SD to "win now" in 2020 with these advance parameters?  Is it possible those paramters are WHY we have a rookie no-experience Manager AGAIN?  If you're Preller & it's blatantly obvious your job is on the line, yet you have a 0% chance of signing Strasburg or likely even Wheeler (how do you fit 20 MM x 5 yrs) due to these limitations, don't you just recklessly pull out the stops & start trading like a madman to save yourself since you can't sign the strength of the FA market, and there's not top tier help at the right positions in FA?  What other choice does he have?  Other teams KNOWING this reduces leverage to Preller.

Myers pay increase is 8.5 MM from 2019 to 2020.  While payroll in 2020 is almost identical right now to last year, due to big decrease in "dead $", you are correct that this is by far the biggest salary increase.