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Off Season Thread
#161 · November 3, 2019, 1:21 am
Dickerson (L) - Akiyama (L) - Marte ... would be a vast improvement (albeit a bit wishful thinking). Two FA (so “only money”) and one trade giving the Padres a lot of flexibility on the pieces sent to PITT. All just over 30 ... Marte 2 years control .... Akiyama would sign for probably 2+ years ... Dickerson would sign for 2 (but maybe more) ... so creates at least 2-3 years of OF stability and buys some time for Trammell to fully develop in the minors and in the 4th OF role. Of course any of those three could be traded if needed. Also buys time for some of the lower minors OF to move into the picture (Rosario, Abrams, Ona, etc.).
Marte would take some trade chips (probably Margot or Renfroe plus prospects) .... but creating that OF could make it easier for the Padres to eat a lot of Myers salary (will not need him in the OF) and move him or just use him as a rotational OF while cleaning house from Renfroe / Margot, Cordero, Naylor ... maybe getting that “filler starter” for 2020 and adding some non-roster prospects in A-ball or lower that Preller seems to be so good at.
I guess I would go the “all in” on a complete rework of the OF from what is clearly a flawed group of incumbents that sit in the bottom third of OF in MLB. Pitching heal thy self from within.
#162 · November 3, 2019, 4:38 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 3, 2019, 1:02 amAgree that Strasburg back to the World Champion Nats is the most likely scenario and that makes Cole the only real TOR arm out there with a lot of teams bidding ... should get more than most suspect. Doubt the Padres win the bidding war. Actually OK with that and would use the money on improving one of the worst offenses in MLB.
If needed ... probably if they deal Lucchesi and/or Lauer for offense .... would try to sign a quality veteran on a one year deal as a bridge to Gore - Patino - Morejon - Lawson - Bolanos - Baez ... all COULD be vying for a starting slot in 2021 (or sooner). Really don’t want a ”nice” veteran option costing more than minimum while blocking the internal options (especially Gore and Patino).
Bet on the blue chip kids for pitching and spend the money on upgrading the OF.
i see a 2 pony race for Stras .. SDP vs Nats.. Nats 2 to 1 odds... Padres 3 to 1...
2 off-season outcomes ..
1) High end SP Cole or Stras. + Mazara/or Benintendi + Shogo + resign Stanmen
2) 2nd tier SP Ryu/Wheeler/Ordozzi/MadBum + Porcello or Hamels type veteran add + Marte or Dickerson + Shogo + Stanmen resign
One brings in a high end SP.. Tge other more depth 2 SP but not a TOR (but with 3 Wheeler /Ry/MadBum) that can develop /stay healthy and regain form of pre injury in that order..
#163 · November 3, 2019, 4:43 am
Just to throw it out there don’t sleep on Inciarte as a Target.
The Braves top 2 prospects are Centerfeilders who are close.
Inciarte is a LH hitting semi-high OBP GG Centerfielder.
He’s 3.5 WAR player when he plays a full season.....which is his biggest negative;injuries.
His availability may come down to what the Braves do with Markakis and Donaldson(Riley).
#164 · November 3, 2019, 6:01 am
Not sure the Braves are in a great position to move Inciarte (injury plagued or not) for 2020. Pache / Waters are top prospects but were only in AA ... if the Braves want to contend it would be a pretty big gamble to cede CF to one of them (I guess Acuna could handle it).
However, that leaves two corner OF slots open ... maybe they bring back Markakis but if they have to move Riley to 3B (and he tailed off after a hot start) ... they still have corner OF problems. Atlanta has to make some moves / FA signings to contend in 2020.
From the Padres’ side ... the injuries issues for a $7.7MM guy may not be the best gamble ... Atlanta for now does not have the same payroll pressure ... think they may be sitting about $30-40MM less than SD.
If there were a deal ... might first depend on Preller’s pursuit of Dickerson and Akiyama ... then maybe Inciarte if those fail. Could make a case for deal around Inciarte for Renfroe.
And for the dreamers out there ... a deal based around Inciarte for Myers. Atlanta will need corner OF ... Atlanta has payroll space .... Myers is a Southern guy. Adding Myers would be only a net $12MM add over Inciarte for the next two seasons and the Padres have enough to sweeten the deal .... Allen for their future catching needs (think theirs are getting old) and France (if Riley regresses or is in the OF).
Something could work here.
#165 · November 3, 2019, 7:16 am
Quote from fenn68 on November 3, 2019, 6:01 amNot sure the Braves are in a great position to move Inciarte (injury plagued or not) for 2020. Pache / Waters are top prospects but were only in AA ... if the Braves want to contend it would be a pretty big gamble to cede CF to one of them (I guess Acuna could handle it).
However, that leaves two corner OF slots open ... maybe they bring back Markakis but if they have to move Riley to 3B (and he tailed off after a hot start) ... they still have corner OF problems. Atlanta has to make some moves / FA signings to contend in 2020.
From the Padres’ side ... the injuries issues for a $7.7MM guy may not be the best gamble ... Atlanta for now does not have the same payroll pressure ... think they may be sitting about $30-40MM less than SD.
If there were a deal ... might first depend on Preller’s pursuit of Dickerson and Akiyama ... then maybe Inciarte if those fail. Could make a case for deal around Inciarte for Renfroe.
And for the dreamers out there ... a deal based around Inciarte for Myers. Atlanta will need corner OF ... Atlanta has payroll space .... Myers is a Southern guy. Adding Myers would be only a net $12MM add over Inciarte for the next two seasons and the Padres have enough to sweeten the deal .... Allen for their future catching needs (think theirs are getting old) and France (if Riley regresses or is in the OF).
Something could work here.
We could send them Renfroe or Myers + to offset Inciarte .. And plug their COF hole
Also like Eaton (Nats)..
#166 · November 3, 2019, 7:20 am
I am sending a couple trades ..maybe 1 semi big in the next 24 hours by AJP as 40 man sets tomorrow
#167 · November 3, 2019, 9:08 am
Since it is highly unlikely that any FA signs today, Padres still have to get 4 bodies off the current roster. I would like to get Benintendi (CF) or Mazara (LF/RF) from Boston or Texas, respectfully, and I think we have a chance if we are willing to give up some decent prospects. Otherwise, wait for C. Dickerson to make up his mind where he wants to land. Only other trades that could happen today would be for pitching, but it seems too early to get the kind of starter we're looking for.
As for FA's, any of you like Didi Gregorious? Love his bat - maybe he can play the OF. I'm not opposed to signing Kendrick as a platoon with Hosmer and back up/split time at 2b. Probably what Preller was hoping for with Kinsler last year and that did not go very well. PETCO really has an adverse affect on AL hitters coming to the NL, where pitchers don't have to face the DH and dimensions are not bandbox like many AL parks.
If no moves made today, predict Mejias-Brean, Martini, Yardley and Edwards get DFA'd or released.
#168 · November 3, 2019, 9:38 am
Quote from JasonE135 on November 2, 2019, 11:33 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 9:37 pmOdorizzi was a 3.6 WAR pitcher in 2019. Hamels was 3.0 WAR pitcher in 2019. Paddack led the staff with 2.6 WAR. Yes both would be upgrades to 2020 staff. I hope I’m wrong, but I highly doubt Stras or Cole are coming to San Diego. I’d imagine Hamels will be getting a 2 year deal which I think is something the Padres would consider. At the age of 35, I don’t think too many teams will go beyond 2 years. I think Odorizzi will get a 5 year deal which I doubt AJP would do.
Quote from JasonE135 on November 2, 2019, 8:55 pmQuote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 8:12 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
I don't really see much of a difference between those 3. None of them will actually improve us, they are just innings eaters. None of them should be signed to a long contract either. We have guys coming up who are going to be better than them, they may just be on innings restrictions. I don't think we will truly see an improvement in our staff unless we sign one of the big two: Cole or Strasburg.
That just tells me that pitcher's WAR makes no sense. ERA is my favorite tool for pitchers. How many runs do you give up in a game? Seems like a good comparative measurement tool. Odorizzi's ERA was .17 higher than Paddack, but he had 19 more innings pitched. So I can see his WAR being higher just because of the added innings, but just a little. Hamels, however, has to be off. Paddack and Hamels were equal in innings pitched(Paddack actually had 2/3 on an inning more). Hamels had an ERA a half a run higher, had 9 fewer strikeouts and 2 less wins. How was he superior to Paddack? Besides, what I was saying is that neither one is a difference maker. Odorizzi over the last 3 years has averaged 155 innings and an ERA of 4.05. Hamels has averaged 160 with a 3.92. Who do those numbers look like? Very similar to Joey Lucchesie(143innings, 4.14 ERA), except Joey has only been pitching for 2 years and has the possibility of improvement. Hamlets and Odorizzi will only be getting worse. I think we can all agree that Lucchesie is not a difference maker.
ERA is your favorite tool for pitchers? What if a pitcher has a terrible defense behind him? What if he pitches in an extreme hitters park? AL to NL? There are many variables that can throw off a pitchers ERA. I can guarantee you AJP and FO around baseball don’t use ERA as a main tool to judge pitchers. There’s a lot more detail that goes into a pitchers WAR then simply runs to innings pitched. I don’t think Odorizzi who is coming off an All Star season, will be a fit for the Padres due to the lengthy contract he will receive, but it’s crazy to say Hamels and Odorizzi wouldn’t be upgrades to the 2020 rotation. I still think AJP will be aggressive in the trade market looking for his front line guy.
#169 · November 3, 2019, 9:45 am
I really don’t see many fits in FA to upgrade the offense. Dickerson is the only guy I see filling an immediate need. Is AJP really going to hand him a big money, multi year deal? I just don’t see it. Naylor, Cordero, TT are 3 young potential LH sticks that will have their opportunities soon and I think 2 of the Margot, Renfroe, Myers RH OFs will be returning. I could see AJP doing a Bolanos, Reyes, France for Mazara type deal. Mazara isn’t the most exciting, but could be a change of scenery candidate and he’s still only 24 with light tower power potential from the left side. I think we are underestimating just how poor the production from second base and catcher was last season. Mejia getting the ABs instead of Hedges and production from Urias at second will improve this offense.
#170 · November 3, 2019, 12:35 pm
Quote from TatisJr on November 3, 2019, 9:45 amI really don’t see many fits in FA to upgrade the offense. Dickerson is the only guy I see filling an immediate need. Is AJP really going to hand him a big money, multi year deal? I just don’t see it. Naylor, Cordero, TT are 3 young potential LH sticks that will have their opportunities soon and I think 2 of the Margot, Renfroe, Myers RH OFs will be returning. I could see AJP doing a Bolanos, Reyes, France for Mazara type deal. Mazara isn’t the most exciting, but could be a change of scenery candidate and he’s still only 24 with light tower power potential from the left side. I think we are underestimating just how poor the production from second base and catcher was last season. Mejia getting the ABs instead of Hedges and production from Urias at second will improve this offense.
Puig destroys RHP .. Calhoun is a good fielder with some OBP skills and pop.. Dickerson and Shogo (JPN) fit this team like a glove.. Grandall could come in here and elevate C position to elite offensive levels.. There are even runors out that we could ssacrifice D at ONE COF and go after Castellanos or JDM believe it or nor (Mlbrumors)... If we want an offensive uograde or 2 there are plenty of FA available