Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 6, 2020, 3:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2020, 2:56 pm

Food for thought on the Padres SP in 2020 (to open the season) ... and just to level the comparisons .... using AWAY stats to minimize home advantages / disadvantages.

Consider the following for each’s 2019 (ERA/innings) and 3 years (ERA/innings):

Lamet ............... 2.92 / 37 ..... 4.15 / 93

Davies .............. 2.94 / 85 ..... 2.92 / 207

Paddack ........... 3.53 / 79 ...... 3.53 / 79

Richards .......... 5.14 / 7 ......... 3.29 / 65

Quantrill .......... 5.52 / 44 ...... 5.52 / 44

Lucchesi .......... 6.22 / 72 ....... 5.40 / 123

1. Might be a tougher battle for #5 between Quantrill and Lucchesi given Lucchesi’s 2019 and maybe the greater upside of Quantrill.

2. IF Richards makes a healthy return, a mid-3s ERA for maybe 150 innings will provide a good base for the rotation

3. Lamet really showed some quality in his limited return ... could be “special”

4. And of course my guy Davies pitching in PETCO going to put them in position for a lot of wins

At least there is legit reason for optimism for the first four slots ... the Lucchesi / Quantrill battle is important but ERAs potentially in the 5 range BOTH could be on short leashes and we see one of the prospects sooner than expected.

Bolanos ..Nix.. Baez ..Morejon and obviously Gore and Patino say Joey/Q who? We ain't chopped liver you know.. Bolanos in particular has very similar stuff to Lamet

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 6, 2020, 3:58 pm

LOL

Aren't these the same guys the majority of people wanted to give....urrr I mean trade away?

Young controllable arms is a blessing and I understand some may very well get dealt for the pieces we need for long term viability in positions of need.

Not a 1 yr rental...given the fact that AJ has been willing to at least dangle some of these assets.....I trust he will make the right moves when it totally benefits the Padres and not help out one of the more wealthy teams in all of baseball.

All this young pitching only pushes everybody to improve.I say let the competition begin..who is going to be this years "Chris Paddack"?

Is it Gore and Patino or ?

Sounds like Henry likes Bolanos

Quote from onlypads on February 6, 2020, 4:59 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 6, 2020, 3:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2020, 2:56 pm

Food for thought on the Padres SP in 2020 (to open the season) ... and just to level the comparisons .... using AWAY stats to minimize home advantages / disadvantages.

Consider the following for each’s 2019 (ERA/innings) and 3 years (ERA/innings):

Lamet ............... 2.92 / 37 ..... 4.15 / 93

Davies .............. 2.94 / 85 ..... 2.92 / 207

Paddack ........... 3.53 / 79 ...... 3.53 / 79

Richards .......... 5.14 / 7 ......... 3.29 / 65

Quantrill .......... 5.52 / 44 ...... 5.52 / 44

Lucchesi .......... 6.22 / 72 ....... 5.40 / 123

1. Might be a tougher battle for #5 between Quantrill and Lucchesi given Lucchesi’s 2019 and maybe the greater upside of Quantrill.

2. IF Richards makes a healthy return, a mid-3s ERA for maybe 150 innings will provide a good base for the rotation

3. Lamet really showed some quality in his limited return ... could be “special”

4. And of course my guy Davies pitching in PETCO going to put them in position for a lot of wins

At least there is legit reason for optimism for the first four slots ... the Lucchesi / Quantrill battle is important but ERAs potentially in the 5 range BOTH could be on short leashes and we see one of the prospects sooner than expected.

Bolanos ..Nix.. Baez ..Morejon and obviously Gore and Patino say Joey/Q who? We ain't chopped liver you know.. Bolanos in particular has very similar stuff to Lamet

No way Bolanos needs work on his breaking stuff but has late life in his FB. Lamet has two dynamic breaking balls and a straight FB.

I mean they both throw heat though. And to be fair, Bolanos secondary stuff looked better at the ML level.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 6, 2020, 8:02 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 6, 2020, 3:58 pm

LOL

Aren't these the same guys the majority of people wanted to give....urrr I mean trade away?

Young controllable arms is a blessing and I understand some may very well get dealt for the pieces we need for long term viability in positions of need.

Not a 1 yr rental...given the fact that AJ has been willing to at least dangle some of these assets.....I trust he will make the right moves when it totally benefits the Padres and not help out one of the more wealthy teams in all of baseball.

All this young pitching only pushes everybody to improve.I say let the competition begin..who is going to be this years "Chris Paddack"?

Is it Gore and Patino or ?

Sounds like Henry likes Bolanos

My vote for this year's Chris Paddack is Cal Quantrill. It seems like many people have written him off and I have no idea why. If you compare his stuff to Paddack's he comes off well. His FB averages about 1/2 mph faster than Paddack's and seems to have better movement. He had what "might be the best CH in the minor leagues". Sure it seems to have backed up some but it can come back if he gets back to using it regularly. If you have seen his slider you will know that it is a true strikeout weapon and miles ahead of Paddack's CUR. While he doesn't have Paddack type command(nobody does), he does have plus command. He is intelligent, he knows how to pitch and his father was a pitcher. He spent close to a month pitching like Paddack when Paddack was having problems. If he can pitch like that consistently that is #2 starter quality.

Bolanos compared to Lamet? Bolanos FB has more movement but is 1.5 mph slower. Lamet averaged 96, Bolanos 94.4. That is a big difference. As far as breaking balls, Lamet's slider is double plus and is far and away the best breaking ball on the Padres(if you don't consider Yates SFFB a breaking ball). Bolanos slider doesn't even grade plus, it is currently above average. Lamet also has a better CUR. As far as stuff is concerned they really aren't even close.

While I think Gore will almost certainly have the best career of our upcoming starters, I don't see him getting any more than a month or two the majors this year. He needs to get comfortable enough with all of his secondary pitches to be able to have them all working on the same night. I don't see the team forcing him to try to do that at the ml level. Patino is even farther away and likely will only get a cup of coffee in the majors in 2020. Therefore I don't see either one of them providing a Paddack type of impact in 2020. I can easily see Gore having that type of impact if not even better 2021.

Neither Baez or Morejon are ready to start in the majors. They will both need at least a full year starting in the minors.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 6, 2020, 8:56 pm

Jason....I agree with you 100% on Quantril

He is my pick for this season as I think he has the stuff to be very effective, very smart guy ( Stanford ) and has the blood line. He got a good taste of it last year and I think he makes a jump and stakes his claim over Luchessi.

Bolanos, Gore, Morejon, Baez, Patino all in the pipeline.......What a quality problem to have 🙂

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2020, 5:37 am

Listening to one of the sports talk shows yesterday and they were commenting on Dennis Lin's (the Athletic) projection of the opening day 26 .... only one really surprising .... Torrens the back-up catcher and no Hedges.

No elaboration on the thinking behind it .... but he is the Padres' reporter so may have a better feeling for the Hedges situation than most. Have to admit he is the first person covering the Padres that has taken the position that Hedges is not going to be on the roster ... most suggest that COULD happen but projecting it is the next level.

Quote from fenn68 on February 7, 2020, 2:27 pm

Took a look at 2 year wRC+ performance of the likely roster (future may not be the same but) and with some platooning base on offense,  the offense MAY be better than we have seen in sometime.

Vs. RHP: Tatis (129); Pham (115); Machado (113); Hosmer (112); Mejia (101); Grisham (94); Profar (93); Myers (91)

Vs.LHP: Tatis (223); Machado (157); Pham (154); Myers (123); Profar (114); Margot (100); France (96); Mejia (70)

Observations:

1. Myers is full time in RF .... just slots in #4 v LHP and #8 v RHP (Naylor is the alternative also at 91 and Grisham is in CF and Margot is only 73).
2. France (96) has to platoon with Hosmer (51) vs. LHP ... if a rookie manager can swing that with Hosmer
3. Hedges will play to keep Mejia fresh (maybe 40-60 games) but is poorer with R/L split at 72/57.
4. Garcia and Naylor match up v. RHP with Profar and Myers but nowhere close v. LHP

I guess a Cordero or Cronenworth could surprise in ST and be better than someone and get a starting role ... but not ready to assume that.

Quote from Brad Mills on February 8, 2020, 12:26 pm

Twins pulled out of Mookie deal. Should we get our hopes up again or do you think Dodgers get it done w another team? Could The Padres be a third team and get Verdugo?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 8, 2020, 12:31 pm

Quote from Brad Mills on February 8, 2020, 12:26 pm

Twins pulled out of Mookie deal. Should we get our hopes up again or do you think Dodgers get it done w another team? Could The Padres be a third team and get Verdugo?

Sox want Verdugo to replace Betts--- the 3rd team (Twins or other now) gets MAEDA.. and gves up TWO top 10 prospects to the Red Sox (which Twinkies said NO to)...