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Off Season Thread
#1121 · January 24, 2020, 10:20 am
Hmmm... I seem to remember someone suggesting Myers + SP to get the dead $ down to 15 MM... 🙂
I would think deal parameters for Pads are:
1) Obviously: has to include Myers & can't include Price (unless Boston takes Hosmer! ...full no trade, but hmmm...)
1A) Boston covers Myers' entire 20 MM salary in 2020. Pads still increasing ACTUAL payroll by 7 MM. Puts them at/> 150 MM
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Remember, Myers + Quantrill (or Joey) JUST deals most (45 MM) of Myers' contract.... proposed return for that was "nothing".
But Padres goal of eliminating most of Myers deal (while also replacing him) and Red Sox goal of getting under Luxury Tax dovetail really well b/c Myers' AAV Luxury tax salary is only ~14 MM. So Boston saving a lot more than 7 MM. For Pads, this may be only scenario in MLB where a team would take all 20 MM due Myers this season.
Reducing payroll to get under luxury tax depresses Betts' value. Without this variable, would I trade Lucchesi & Baez for 1 year of Betts & a comp pick? HELL yes! If I'm Preller, and I can do this exact deal (Myers, Q, Joey, Baez) with Boston covering all 20 MM this yr, and Padres taking back 20 MM (10/10) in 21-22 on Myers, I DEFINITELY do it. Given Pads aren't giving up ANY of their "top 5", I'd be stunned if Morejon isn't ultimately in the deal.
From Boston's POV they're getting cheaper, worse, but MLB caliber with upside OF for 3 years, 7 MM + luxury tax savings off 2020 payroll, another 10 MM drop in payroll next year with Myers, and potentially THREE cheap long control (4-6 yrs) SP. They could re-sign Betts as a FA in 2021. Could probably pretty easily trade Myers again at that point with only 2/21 MM remaining as their obligation. Gaining all the SP could set them up to do a separate Price trade where they eat a significant amount of his salary, but achieve their goal of getting under the luxury tax threshold.
#1122 · January 24, 2020, 11:10 am
Did see the write up that nothing is close on Marte ... which means we should expect a deal soon. 🙂
- Betts for Myers, Lucchesi, Quantrill, Baez
- Marte for Margot, Weathers, Oliveras
- Contreras for Hedges, Cantillo, Cordero
Insert those three bats and the offense will be compelling and with the rotation (1-4) might actually win ... and still leaving Gore - Patino - Morejon - Lawson on the horizon.
Only two smaller issues ... Padres will have to come up with some more money for payroll in 2020 .... someone has to convince Boston - Pitt - Cubs to make the deals.
I can dream.
#1123 · January 24, 2020, 11:22 am
This is big news... is Fenn jumping on the trade prospect depth for proven talent to win in 2020 train? 😉
#1124 · January 24, 2020, 11:24 am
If the Boston Globe report is accurate, it is incredibly positive to the Padres EVEN IF they only have Betts for 1 year.
Seriously, I love Lucchesi but his ceiling at best is a strong 3 in a play-off competitive rotation; Quantrill shows flashes and at this point, I'm willing to let another team see if they can convert those flashes to consistency. Same basically with Baez, who could be a starter or high leverage reliever. Myers salary is gone, partially or fully, for 2021 and 2022, freeing up money for another OF or front-line SP.
You have to look at this in the context of the Dodgers trade for Manny Machado before he became a FA. Good prospects were provided to Baltimore but not ELITE prospects. Moreover, Boston is in a financial pinch and may be even more so when the full pound of flesh is collected for sign-stealing. Their current farm system offers little immediate relief.
Padres have dozens of high level/elite prospects that must be protected on the 2021 roster - Patino, Trammell, Lawson, Gabriel Arias, Potts, etc. - or face Rule 5 exposure. This trade will help clear money and roster space and make for an exciting and potentially playoff contending 2020 season. SP? We still have Lamet, Paddack, Richards, Davies and Gore, Morejon, Bolanos, Patino and others waiting in the wings to grab an open spot. In the short run, you could even plug back in Strahm or Perdomo OR make another trade with the high level/elite prospects that remain.
I see the future ability to compete not damaged, but rather enhanced. I'm all in!
#1125 · January 24, 2020, 11:38 am
though like Acee, he suggests the Padres’ very best prospects haven’t been included in talks. Speier adds that the Padres have been willing to “clear the bar” that was set by last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade between Arizona and St. Louis, wherein the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.
At time of Goldschmidt trade:
- Weaver was 25 y.o., 5 yr control (1.5 yrs MLB; strong debut, mediocre 2nd season), "possible solid mid-rotation arm". Good peripherals but only 12 starts w/ Dbacks last yr.
- Kelly was 24 y.o. entered season as their #3 prospect, elite defensive C who struggled offensively initially in MLB as a backup. Broke out playing more with Dbacks
- Young was 24 y.o. late round draft pick outside Cards top 30. Very good career Minors offensive stats continued w/ Dbacks.
- Comp B pick was #78 overall.
Goldschmidt was on last year of the very team friendly extension he signed with Dbacks: due "only" 14.5 MM coming off 5.4 WAR season @ 30 y.o. in 2018. Cards extended him before 2019 season, and he regressed badly; same HR, but 2B/3B from 40 down to 26. Betts is only 27 y.o. , but 27 MM coming off "only" (LOL) a 6.8 WAR season. ZERO chance he'll extend... but MAJOR motivation in a potential all-time highest MLB contract 'platform' season.
Even with Carson Kelly's breakout 2019, I don't think I'd rate (entering) 2018 Kelly as high as ANY of the Pads top 5 prospects; they all have higher ceilings. So does even essential consensus #6 Morejon; different type of risk/reward prospect.
But the Pads current equivalent to the Goldschmidt trade looks SOMETHING like: Quantrill, Morejon, Cronenworth, Comp pick.
"Topping" that is simply not too much to pay for 1 yr of a potential MVP candidate 'solving' our Wil Myers contract problem. For starters, our 2020 Comp pick next year is in Round A, not B, so #35 range vs. #78. BIG difference. Essentially hands Boston the comp pick they'll "lose" for Betts by trading him now. If assume that Lucchesi included to help offset Myers' $, could easily argue that all 3 of the names above have more upside than the 3 guys Dbacks got in the trade.
#1126 · January 24, 2020, 11:40 am
Sidebar: Note that all 3 of the guys Dbacks took back in trade were 24-25 at time; ready/near-ready MLB players... not 19 y.o. lottery tickets needing 3 yrs in minors to develop... proximity to MLB even with lower ceiling = > trade value than guys like Abrams whose future value is going to be higher.
#1127 · January 24, 2020, 11:59 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2020, 11:10 amDid see the write up that nothing is close on Marte ... which means we should expect a deal soon. 🙂
- Betts for Myers, Lucchesi, Quantrill, Baez
- Marte for Margot, Weathers, Oliveras
- Contreras for Hedges, Cantillo, Cordero
Insert those three bats and the offense will be compelling and with the rotation (1-4) might actually win ... and still leaving Gore - Patino - Morejon - Lawson on the horizon.
Only two smaller issues ... Padres will have to come up with some more money for payroll in 2020 .... someone has to convince Boston - Pitt - Cubs to make the deals.
I can dream.
Whoa, FENN, you sound like Henry!
I'd do the Contreras deal if Cubs would; relatively minor $ impact. But don't see any need whatsoever to do the Marte deal if we do add Betts. Too much $ increase, likely worse CF defense, and an all RH, all full-time OF. But maybe see if we can insert as the 3rd team to give Pirates prospects Mets can't, while getting Brandon Nimmo? Might push Grisham all the way back to AAA, but just for 1 yr.
#1128 · January 24, 2020, 12:04 pm
Pads being back "in" on Marte just negotiating tactic to try to push Red Sox over the edge
#1129 · January 24, 2020, 1:24 pm
I don’t think it’s a coincidence this sudden flurry of news linking the Padres to Betts and Marte is coming out as Bryant’s grievance case is supposedly wrapping up. AJP will want the Cubs, Sox and Pirates all knowing he’s talking big bats with other clubs. I’d assume his target list in order is:
1. Bryant (expected 2 years of control) can play 3B,1B,LF and RF and I expect the Dodgers to pursue him in trade.
2. Betts is better all around player, but only 1 year of control
3. Marte isn’t in the same class as Betts and Bryant, but he’s solid and is on a reasonable 2 year deal.
I don’t think Wil is on the 2020 roster and I believe 1 of these 3 are added to the lineup. I really hope Campusano isn’t used for 1 year of Betts and the comp pick unless it means Boston is eating all of Wil’s deal.
#1130 · January 24, 2020, 1:25 pm
Big dreams, Brian! I'll be ecstatic just for #1 to happen. Even if it doesn't looking forward to going to home openers in Lake Elsinore, El Paso and Amarillo if I can get my resources and time schedule together. Lots of interesting stories to be seen in these minor league cities and also in Ft. Wayne, which is a little beyond my reach. Should be a fun year for growth and development.