Quote from onlypads on January 24, 2020, 7:36 am

Apparently Boston Globe source reports package is Quantrill, Lucchesi, Baez, and Myers.

If Preller does this I will have a hard time watching this season. That would be pure insanity.

Well now that I have given it some thought and reflected maybe a Q/L + Baez + Myers isnt a stretch. Especially if we have some intent to actually sign Betts, which I am not sure is advisable.

Pham -- Grisham/Margot/Cordero -- Betts?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2020, 8:23 am

I hope it’s Quantrill “OR” Lucchesi.

Although if it’s both you can probably pencil Gore into the OD rotation.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2020, 8:24 am

Quote from onlypads on January 24, 2020, 7:36 am

Apparently Boston Globe source reports package is Quantrill, Lucchesi, Baez, and Myers.

If Preller does this I will have a hard time watching this season. That would be pure insanity.

Well now that I have given it some thought maybe a Q/L + Baez + Myers isnt a stretch. Especially if we have some intent to actually sign Betts. Which I am not sure is advisable.

The missing element is how much of Myers' contract is Boston taking?

Since pitching is the Padres' strength in terms ML/ML close prospects ... I would be fine with that deal IF Boston took most of Myers' contract.

Padres get 1 year of Betts for a chance to make a wild card run in 2020 ... will get a Comp Pick when Betts goes FA (arguably an offset for one of the pitchers down the road) ... and some 2021-22 salary relief to deploy to bolster the roster.

Padres give on Lucchesi (4 control years but projected as a #5), Quantrill (already 25, some upside but not projected as an upper half of the rotation type), Baez (most see him as a future RP) ... none of them appear to be on track for "elite" ML status. Padres still preserve a ton of quality arms in Gore - Patino - Morejon - Weathers - Cantillo - Lawson .... while Paddack and Lamet are around for some length of time and Davies for 2 years. Would guess the Padres use a "filler" #5 in April-May until they call up Gore in June.

The key is how much of Myers' contract goes ... and pretty sure Boston is not taking it all. Remember cash is not their issue ... it is lowering AAV for luxury tax and Myers provides a 2020 $13MM "savings".

Betts .......... $27MM ...... $27 /   0 /   0 / 0

Myers ........ $61MM ......  $20/ 20 / 20 / 1

I could see Boston suggesting a "cash neutral" deal by taking only $27MM of Myers' contract and the prospects for Betts and his vastly superior talent for a 1 year Padre run at the wild card. Padres on the hook for $34MM ... doubt Preller is OK with that given the prospects dealt and not getting the payroll flexibility.

Preller may be OK with eating $15MM ($5MM/year) and freeing up $15MM in 2021 and 2022. Does that require more (or better) prospects?

Do they settle on those prospects and the Padres eating $10MM in each of 2021 and 2022 and saving the same amount from Myers while being past Betts' $27MM?

Still, no matter the deal, Boston will get killed by their fans if they move Betts for less than some super-stars ... no deal.

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2020, 8:41 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2020, 8:23 am

I hope it’s Quantrill “OR” Lucchesi.

Although if it’s both you can probably pencil Gore into the OD rotation.

 

Under that scenario I would give a 50/50 percent odds of Gore on the opening day roster (a la Paddack). Clearly the Padres know how to manage through that innings control needed. In Gore's case, and with the SP stronger than last season to start, think Gore will go to AA under an innings control for April-May then a 90% chance we see him in June.

So in April-May ... what to do. Could see them use Bolanos (on the roster) and swing him between SP and RP given the early season spacing with weather / off days then send him down (or to the pen) depending on other pitcher injuries to make room for Gore. Also, that trade opens two 40 man roster slots ... Padres could add one of their non-roster veteran minor league signings (such as Eichoff) to bridge to Gore. ST would be interesting for that 5th SP.

Quote from onlypads on January 24, 2020, 8:44 am

Wonder if that was one of the goals in executing so many of the minor league deals...

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 24, 2020, 9:27 am

If we are truly interested in Marte I'm gonna guess that that deal could get done but because the Betts deal involves moving Myers it takes priority.

Apparently the Pirates and Mets are far apart so our deal for Marte may just be on the back burner waiting for the Betts deal to fall through...which is most likely.

 

Quote from Mike Turner on January 24, 2020, 9:30 am

Giving up Lucchesi just doesn't seem like the move to make, IMO.  Factor in Betts is making 27 this year, 3.5 fWAR is just going to be playing to his contract value.  If he put's up a 6.5 fWAR next year that will put him around 2.5 fWAR of surplus value to his contract.  Lucchesi's steamer projection is around 2 fWAR, so all said and done we're looking around .5 fWAR surplus for one year, while giving additional prospects, while Lucchesi will still have team friendly control for multiple years, while also paying down Myers contract in 21' and 22'?  I think the idea would be to move on from Myers, pay down some portion of his salary, while giving BOS some prospect capital to roll the dice on and we get the comp pick when Betts walks.  BOS has a weak system and may still end out losing some draft picks.  That seems to make sense for us but doesn't make much sense for BOS since their goal is to get under the luxury tax which would just complicate their situation in 21' and 22'.  Maybe I'm reading the whole thing wrong but it just seems very complicated to make it work.  Losing Lucchesi would definitely hurt our chances on competing as I don't think having Gore out of ST is a wise choice on our part.  He's only started a handful of games in AA and wasn't lights out.  Paddack ended his 18' killing high A and double A, then had a solid spring which justified his call-up.  We still have to match up well against the likes of an LAD starting staff.  I have faith in Paddack, Lamet and Davies... but losing Lucchesi and then hoping for Richards to have a strong return just seems like a big gamble.  If Richards return isn't as expected then we're relying on unproven pitchers to limp us through the season in Bolanos, Morejon, maybe a June call-up for Gore on an innings limit?  I'd rather have Paddack / Richards/ Lamet / Davies / Lucchesi and supplement one prospect in as needed if Richards isn't quite there, or the rest as needed, etc.

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2020, 10:01 am

From Fangraphs (Steamer projection) via MLB.com:

5) Meet Lamet
Don’t sleep on the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet. The righty’s intriguing 2017 debut was followed by a season and a half lost to Tommy John surgery, but Lamet came back strong last summer, with a 33.6% K-rate that would have ranked fourth in MLB with enough innings to qualify. Steamer has Lamet and his bat-missing breaking stuff finishing in the top 25 in the Majors in strikeouts (204), with a 3.74 ERA and 3.3 WAR. Between that performance, and a similarly strong projection for the often-injured Garrett Richards, things could be looking up for San Diego’s rotation.

Well some optimism here (especially with Richards) but if near reality and combined with Paddack and Davies ... that is a pretty good #1-4 SP going into 2020.

Note that I am really optimistic on Davies given his career performance AWAY for Miller Park ... may not be the darling of the analytics but clearly gets people out and maintains a low ERA ... really solid for the middle of the rotation.

If you buy it ... give some license to move Lucchesi and Quantrill for much needed offense.

Quote from onlypads on January 24, 2020, 10:17 am

Agree with most of what is said. Really need it to be L or Q and most of the Myers contract. I continue to believe L and Q provide some of our greatest excess trade chips and should be dealt only where we gain the greatest advantage.  I think either may make big strides -- thus standing by may make sense.

I would have no problem adding in a Margot/ Hedges/ Potts/ Naylor/ Cordero or Mercano as a replacement piece.

I see us being a legitimate playoff contender with Betts.

This talk could reflect our continued efforts to increase LAD's acquisition cost.