Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 1:33 pm

Now with the non-tender (expanding the FA po0l) and Rule 5 over ... can return to my obsession of creating a ML quality bench to support a 162 game slate and no DH. As it stands:

C:  Mejia (#)

OF: Allen (#); O'Grady (L)

INF: Mateo; PTNL

I can"t see Ona, Campusano, or Marcano sitting on the bench just to PH and occasionally fill in given their prospect status ... need to play.

Looking at the Padres minor leaguers in the upper levels ... think all were eligible for Rule 5 selection and all were bypassed by 29 clubs ... not an endorsement.

So, ideally Padres acquire a RHH INF for PH and back-up roles ... Mateo can't hit so the hit component is important.

Who? at what price? really don't see much via the trade market for that bench role ... so FA route and that likely becomes a 2B type (Cronenworth to SS as needed). Better chance of getting a decent hitter if looking at a 2B.

I have heard Nola as an option but Padres paid a pretty penny to get a #1 catcher for defense and offense (as a catcher) and not then going to waste him at 2B (a position he could not make the ML at) and then revert to Mejia as the #1 catcher. Might see him there for a multiple shift scenario or a short injury spell ... but not an extended game run if someone get a hammy injury. Leave him alone and maximize his skills as a catcher.

Moving the starters around just moves the giant hole around ...

Over 162 games ... this poor bench can (will) cost wins ... and maybe the playoffs.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 2:01 pm

This brings up really important under-discussed topic: Us Pads fans have been SPOILED since 2016 with the massive influx of elite prospects in the huge 2016 Intl FA signings and annual picks at the top of the draft who automatically are Top 100 prospects.  Those days are now officially OVER!  2021 on we are picking bottom half to very bottom of draft, and on the same hard capped Intl FA playing field as every other team. There's no possible way out there (besides a MLB talent selloff) for us to rebuild our Farm going forward.

2020 draft provided a top 100 prospect, a top 10 system, and 2 more top 25 prospects. The 2021 draft the 1st round pick will likely be outside our top 10 prospects (until they all graduate) & the 2nd & comp B (after 2nd round) picks MIGHT make top 30.

Padres might be able to hit on future International signings as late developing bargains like Lamet & Patino...

But we will NOT be able to draft:  Gore, Weathers, Abrams, Hassell going forward....  think Eric Lauer (#25 1st round)

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 2:20 pm

Hence the need for a quality scouting staff to unearth the under appreciated talent. LAD have been doing that for years without top draft picks .... and they turned out OK.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 2:54 pm

For a follow-up with LAD projected starting 2021 line-up:

C: Smith ...2nd round (#32)

1B: Muncy ... 5th round (#169)

2B: Taylor ... 5th round (#161)

SS: Seager ... 1st round (#18)

3B: Rios ... 6th round (#172)

LF: Pollack ... 1st round (#17)

CF: Bellinger ... 4th round (#124)

RF: Betts ... 5th round (#172)

Some LAD drafts others via trade but none top 15 picks. Add their starting pitching after  Kershaw ... Buehler #24 / May #101 / Urias International FA.

Then consider the Padres (2nd best in NL) have ZERO draft picks projected in their starting line-up and only Lucchesi (4th round / #114) plus international signings Lamet and Morejon. Not seeing those draft picks making a difference for the Padres unless as trade chips.

Need a smart front office on selecting under valued players and then making great trades ... with LAD helps to have endless money too.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 10, 2020, 3:45 pm

Not only do we need great scouting but also the right blend of coaches that actually can TEACH and DEVELOPE young players/draft picks.....trading the farm for short term success in not what the Padres should be doing.....why are the Cardinals and Dodgers always at the top of having success with non top 25 picks ?

The problem the Padres have always had is that they trade away the future....think long term viability vs short term success as in a feel good moment. I for one would love to have a farm system that developes our picks and be in the conversation every year instead of a catch lightning in a bottle for one or two years.

These young pitchers that show so much promise as they have risen through the farm system need to swim in the deep end as in Major League innings.....every pitcher of note all had to toe the major league rubber at some point.....Kershaw, Baumgardner, Buehler, Verlander to name a few.

How much fun would it be to have a young rotation of Lamet, Gore, Paddack, Clevenger, Davies, Morejon,Patino,Weathers and more....that type of rotation could be a force in the NL West and beyond for years and the fans would show up knowing the young Padres are here

Please don't trade away the future and the future starts on the mound.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2020, 4:00 pm

Something to noodle ... the difference between a 162 game (6 month) season and the 60 game (2 month) and its impact on how players are used. The major worry in MLB is getting the 1450 innings covered effectively after minimal pitching in 2020 for both ML players and prospects. Consider the Padres probably SP histories 2018-19-20 (note that going somewhere between 150-180 innings is the minimum target):

Lucchesi: 136-164-5

Davies: 113-160-69

Paddack: 90-141-59

Lamet: 0-94-69 (some concern on health allowing a full 150 run)

===== then the “prospects”

Gore: 61-101-0

Weathers: 18-96-1

Patino: 83-94-17

Morejon: 65-44-19

======

Can see the need for a reliable innings eater in the SP rotation ... pretty comfortable with Davies-Lucchesi-Paddack making their starts/innings (not talking quality but quantity) but not sure about any of the others over a full season for the other two slots.

If they don’t add a reliable, healthy innings eater ... probably need ALL the others to mix and match over the course of 162 games to avoid injury / burnout.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 5:09 pm

.... this belongs on the 2021 schedule thread but follow up to last post:

Anyone else selfishly wanting a < 162 game schedule?  I sure am .... REALLY benefits the Pads young SP's IP limitations to have a season where you know they "only" have to cover, for example 25 starts each vs 32.  A 120-130 game schedule would fit into the Padres wheelhouse so well that they could entertain not acquiring a SP at all.  IMO every game shorter the season is increases the chances we could catch LAD despite our SP limitations.

Problem is the timing; won't know actual season length until later, but clock ticking now on Sugano.  Never know when there will be a run on other FA SP taking viable options off the table.

But my overriding point is:  do we really want to trade cheap controllable pitching to plug a 1 year hole in a weird, possibly shortened season followed by another year of highly possible < 162 games due to lockout or strike?  Yes, don't pay the FA for the games not played... but why pay them at all to cover a smaller # of games.   Hmmm.... anyone thought about why the SP contracts might be so high?   Teams anticipating not "really" having to pay the whole amount in those 1-2 yr deals?  Just saying....

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 5:26 pm

These young pitchers that show so much promise as they have risen through the farm system need to swim in the deep end as in Major League innings.....every pitcher of note all had to toe the major league rubber at some point.....Kershaw, Baumgardner, Buehler, Verlander to name a few.

How much fun would it be to have a young rotation of Lamet, Gore, Paddack, Clevenger, Davies, Morejon,Patino,Weathers and more....that type of rotation could be a force in the NL West and beyond for years and the fans would show up knowing the young Padres are here

Please don't trade away the future and the future starts on the mound

The Padres elite Farm system entering 2020 (like 2019) was really "top heavy"; all those SP's being pretty advanced REALLY needed to use 2020 as their "finishing school" in minors to build up their arms > 100 IP & experience first hand how to navigate a long season's ups & downs.... SOME of them would be more ready now to tackle a full season.

Now instead, most of them are either "set back " a year, OR are going to hit MLB prematurely (Patino), which has been a CHRONIC issue with Pads P's coming up for various reasons, but largely that they simply had to b/c there was no one else.   Joey, Paddack, and even Lamet all have stunted development profiles where their stuff was easily good enough for MLB, but their lack of 3rd pitch, command development limit them now.  For example, long term, Gore will be better off than Patino for staying down at Alt site AS A SP!  Working to find his command, mechanics, etc.  Patino lost the limited season to develop as a SP by working sporadically as a RP instead.

While my overriding concern would be their health, I do agree they're simply going to have to take their lumps in MLB at some point, and 2021 looks like the time to do so.

Teams with more "bottom heavy"systems where most top prospects are lower levels weren't hurt as badly by the loss of the 2020 season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2020, 5:59 pm

Then consider the Padres (2nd best in NL) have ZERO draft picks projected in their starting line-up and only Lucchesi (4th round / #114) plus international signings Lamet and Morejon. Not seeing those draft picks making a difference for the Padres unless as trade chips.

LAD's strong draft/develop ability really reinforces 3Finger's argument...  since we HAVEN'T done as well in that department, WHY would we trade away our elite long term talent for short term "fixes"?

Preller's first wave of  "elite" top 100 position player prospects?   Hedges (2nd round above slot), Renfroe (1st), Margot (Intl) didn't succeed in helping get us > 2nd division.  None hits / gets on base well enough.  Draftees were in the system before Preller got here.

Preller's picks starting to arrive on roster now:   Patino - Intl, Campusano - 2nd, Weathers - 1st,  Lawson - Comp 2nd, Thompson - 3rd, Marcano - Intl.   Quantrill & Lauer 1st round were traded.  Lets give them a shot.