Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 10:25 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2021, 9:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 9:20 am

Health of Tatis and the SP is the foundation for success in 2022 .... IF healthy the SP of Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Clevinger, and Lamet have proven ML upper rotation success (of course they have to repeat that success but the talent is there). If that does not pan out ... not sure they can do that much tinkering to overcome.

You have to wonder if it is best for Lamet and SD; if he can, becomes the closer. Top notch fastball and wipe out slider combo usually plays well for a closer.

Can he transition to pitching multiple days in a row?

Can he get ready that quick?

Does he have that Trevor mentality?

Or is Paddack a candidate to be a closer?

Lamet will be an interesting call as a starter or a reliever. His stuff works either way but hard to access (given his health history) which is better for his staying available.

Padres need to make that call early in ST to either stretch him out or get him ready for pitching multiple days in a row. I have heard him say he wants to start.

Bit concerned as a RP he will end up in the Adams profile ... one day strike out the side next day hit 3 batters, throw wild pitches, and can't find the plate.

Either way ... of the potential pitchers ... I worry about him the most getting re-injured. Probably someone they should not plan on as the key SP or closer.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 10:47 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2021, 10:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 10:14 am

Really don't see 1B as a big hole ... don't like Hosmer there but between him and Cronenworth (Frazier at 2B) that should be OK .. just OK not great.

Just don't see the likely "cost" to supplant Hosmer would be worth the move given pure voids in LF/DH.

 

When you are down more than 20-30 RBIs over the season at an important RBI spot, I think that is a huge hole.

OK doesnt cut it anymore in SD!!

 

For me it is the probability to find a significant upgrade (and a reasonable cost) ... don't see that happening. Sure don't like (as I have outlined before) Hosmer's lack of production ... but in this case may have to play the cards as dealt.

Spend to upgrade from Hosmer .... use up the money / trade chips ... and have little to add a LF or DH.

Sort of ties with the Myers to 1B suggestion ... would like him better than Hosmer BUT that then leaves them with an OF of TBD - Grisham - TBD and coming up with two starting corner OF is not easy.

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Should note the potential domino effect IF they choose to have Tatis play RF ... Cronenworth to SS ... Frazier at 2B. That opens Myers to LF (solves the LF void) or to 1B/DH to platoon with Hosmer for 1B/DH.

Either way the Padres need to add a new bat ... take out Hosmer and need to add two bats ... Padres don't have the assets to add two Hosmer quality bats let alone upgrade from Hosmer.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2021, 12:35 pm

Health of Rotation is #1 for me.

We kinda forgot that we lost Morejon and Baez early in the season also.

Weathers was great....for awhile.....then hit a wall.

2022 the rotation still has many questions.

Will Clevinger stay healthy and be effective?

Which Snell will we get?

Can Darvish adapt to the lack of sticky stuff with an offseason of work?

Will Weathers be the first half pitcher or the second?

Which Paddack will we get?........Lamet?

When will Morejon/Baez be available if at all?

Really the only non question mark is Musgrove......

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2021, 12:38 pm

When should we know about the DH?

Will it be early in the offseason so we can address it or?

Winter Meetings?

If we have the DH and don't sign a true one(Cruz/Soler) I'd prefer Hosmer to DH against RH pitchers hitting 7th and get him off the field.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2021, 12:53 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2021, 12:38 pm

When should we know about the DH?

Will it be early in the offseason so we can address it or?

Winter Meetings?

If we have the DH and don't sign a true one(Cruz/Soler) I'd prefer Hosmer to DH against RH pitchers hitting 7th and get him off the field.

 

 

The DH will be part of the new CBA, so wont be "official" until sometime in December at the earliest. But you can absolutely count on it being in both leagues for 2022. So...

IF we cant get rid of Hosmer, having him as the DH against RHP is the least offensive thing he would be able to do on this team going forward. His career numbers vs RHP is actually very decent to above average.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 1:45 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2021, 12:53 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2021, 12:38 pm

When should we know about the DH?

Will it be early in the offseason so we can address it or?

Winter Meetings?

If we have the DH and don't sign a true one(Cruz/Soler) I'd prefer Hosmer to DH against RH pitchers hitting 7th and get him off the field.

 

 

The DH will be part of the new CBA, so wont be "official" until sometime in December at the earliest. But you can absolutely count on it being in both leagues for 2022. So...

IF we cant get rid of Hosmer, having him as the DH against RHP is the least offensive thing he would be able to do on this team going forward. His career numbers vs RHP is actually very decent to above average.

That was sort of my thinking … stuck with Hosmer but can at least get him off 1B.

Seems as though the DH is a safe bet … but probably will not be “official” until the CBA is ratified and that could be March - April (maybe even later). If later they play under the current CBA unless there is a work stoppage. So “tricky” in creating a roster.

Padres “inclination” is adding players with some versatility so probably are not initially looking to add a DH/1B type anyway … go for someone who can play other field positions. Given that DH/1B types are not the most in demand … probably would wait until the last moment to pursue on if still needed.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 2:06 pm

Would think the CBA will be a bigger drag on early trades than most think IF teams feel there is a legit chance that the player control drops from 6 to 5 years OR the procedure for calculating the 6 years changes in a way that makes FA potentially arrive sooner.

A “buying” team will not pay the same price for one year control player vs the same player controlled for 2 years.

Probably a lot of other issues in the CBA that may change the “value” of individual players in trade.

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Not sure what the Padres have to trade (and should trade) to get a significant add. Can’t get fair value for any of the injured (and that is most of the pitchers) … and of the top prospect really can’t justify moving any hitters given that is what is needed now and then in 2023 replacements for Frazier and Myers (maybe Hosmer). Padres must preserve as many hitting prospects as possible.

So if they go the trade route … for a quality hitter … does that get them down to dealing Weathers or Gore? Maybe use Campusano given Caratini has 2 years control and Nola longer then bet on Valenzuela developing to replace Caratini?

If they go the FA route … pure guess on funds available but I don’t expect enough to fund a MAJOR bat ($20MM+) … maybe a $5-10MM type.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2021, 2:38 pm

Dave Cameron (the main analytical guru for the Padres) has chosen to leave the organization. Some reporting suggests the ability to get the analytics to the players in understandable and usable way has been an issue (note a piece on Quantrill praising the Indians ability to take the analytics to use them in a way to improve him … and he has be very good in 2021).

Wonder if this impacts the Tatis to the OF thinking?

Quote from TarheelPadre on October 5, 2021, 4:41 pm

I find it interesting that it is being reported everywhere that Tingler will be let go,  yet there hasn’t been an announcement.  Wonder if Preller is fighting for his job in post season meetings with the higher ups?