Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2022, 9:33 am

Given they way Martinez is effective as the jack of all trades on the staff ... clearly the Padres would want to keep him in some (or the same) role going forward. However, that success in 2022 has to move Martinez to NOT opt in ... hard to believe he would get a "worse" deal as a FA and a good chance a better guaranteed deal.

Some hedging that is that the next three years are his ages 33-34-35 ... a bit old for a guy who basically one season as a "swing man" ... not a starter / not a closer other than by projection. That should keep the size of the contract down.

From Martinez' view the lack of a guarantee is an issue at this age for the 3 years ... if he opted in for 2023 and then was bought out of 2024 he would max out at $8MM (base plus buyout) for one year. Bump that to 2024 then bought out of 2025 he would max out at $14.5MM / 2 years. Can't rely on getting paid for the starts that may (or may not) occur. Then if he made it though 2025 it is $19.5MM/3 years. So really sitting with guarantee of $8MM if not bought out of 2023 (unlikely)

Both side have to project his future success and what that is worth in guaranteed money. If you project him over the next 3 years as he is today ... is $21MM/3 guaranteed ($7MM AAV) too much for that role? IF you project him as a bottom of the rotation starter is that $21MM/3 too much? IF you project him as a closer maybe that is not enough BUT starter / closer are pure projection of a 32 year old with no track record over an extended period.

Could go a lot of ways ... but maybe the Padres and Martinez get together before he hits FA and work out a deal with guaranteed money keeping the total AAV down.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 30, 2022, 1:25 pm

I imagine Nick would like to start?

If the Padres offer him that option, I'd like to think he and management could work something out.

If they don't, certainly can see him walk to get that opportunity.

Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2022, 2:37 pm

I would think the Padres would say they will give him a chance to earn a starting spot in 2023 … just guarantee it. Given the returnees the door would be open … but then again Preller could go out and get better alternatives.

Martinez has to assess the environment and make the call no matter what the Padres say. He also has to consider whether if any other team will want him as a starter (and pay better). Remember he signed believing he would be likely be a starter and did start and got bumped to the pen. That could be the 2023 scenario with any team.

Quote from BoosterSD on August 30, 2022, 6:05 pm

Interesting that we bring this up today, and then they do the same thing on MLBTR. This is there thoughts on Martinez,

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Quote from fenn68 on August 30, 2022, 7:43 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on August 30, 2022, 6:05 pm

Interesting that we bring this up today, and then they do the same thing on MLBTR. This is there thoughts on Martinez,

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Timing is everything!

I don’t understand their $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) calculation if he is due $6.5MM for the next three seasons the starting point is $19.5MM … then $1.5MM buyout before any of the three seasons (if exercised) reduces the amount well below $18MM. What am I missing?

Actually is sounds as though they are suggesting that if Martinez does not opt in, HE has to pay the Padres $1.5MM for that right. Numbers still make no sense but that would be an “unusual” arrangement. I am officially confused.

——————

Did note that they though both Profar and Suarez would opt out (also did not understand the Suarez amount he would pass on). Profar I understand … bit surprised on Suarez (but my numbers are different). Again confused.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 30, 2022, 8:13 pm

I think they're just trying to say that if he opts in and the team chooses to buy him out he would have to find a deal worth more than 18m over 3 years to come out ahead. I think it's irrelevant though. I don't think there is any scenario where the team buys him out if he opts in.

Quote from fenn68 on August 31, 2022, 3:10 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 30, 2022, 8:13 pm

I think they're just trying to say that if he opts in and the team chooses to buy him out he would have to find a deal worth more than 18m over 3 years to come out ahead. I think it's irrelevant though. I don't think there is any scenario where the team buys him out if he opts in.

Agree he is likely to opt in and the Padres will not buy him out for 2023 but have to consider the real guaranteed money … if he gets injured or ineffective in 2023, Padres can dump him for $1.5MM. Can he get the same $19.5MM guaranteed from someone? Think that is the pivot point for a guy turning 33 next year. Could Martinez’ agent using Martinez’ good season and the Padres needing him for 2023 use the opt in decision as a lever to get the remaining deal guaranteed?

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 31, 2022, 10:55 am

I actually think he is likely to opt out. I think there will be teams willing to gamble 3/30+ on him hoping he can be an effective starter. Looking at the deals guys like Cobb, Gibson and Odorizzi have signed recently I think he could get something similar. His work as a reliever makes it less risky and less of a waste if he doesn't make it as a starter.

Based on some comments that he has made and the incentives in his deal I think it is pretty clear that Martinez wants to be a starter. From the Padres perspective I think it depends on how much they believe in him as a starter. There is clearly going to be a need in the rotation next year. If he opts in it's an easy decision to keep him. It effectively becomes a 5m decision at that point which I think is a reasonable deal for him as a reliever and a potential steal as a starter. If he opts out like I think he will it's a more difficult decision. Would they be comfortable paying him 3/30m and making him a starter or do you go a different direction if that's what it takes to bring him back?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 31, 2022, 11:16 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 31, 2022, 10:55 am

I actually think he is likely to opt out. I think there will be teams willing to gamble 3/30+ on him hoping he can be an effective starter. Looking at the deals guys like Cobb, Gibson and Odorizzi have signed recently I think he could get something similar. His work as a reliever makes it less risky and less of a waste if he doesn't make it as a starter.

Based on some comments that he has made and the incentives in his deal I think it is pretty clear that Martinez wants to be a starter. From the Padres perspective I think it depends on how much they believe in him as a starter. There is clearly going to be a need in the rotation next year. If he opts in it's an easy decision to keep him. It effectively becomes a 5m decision at that point which I think is a reasonable deal for him as a reliever and a potential steal as a starter. If he opts out like I think he will it's a more difficult decision. Would they be comfortable paying him 3/30m and making him a starter or do you go a different direction if that's what it takes to bring him back?

Problem is like SS ..this FA SP/P class is extremely loaded... and only so much money to go around.. I can see a wise GM kicking back and waiting to pounce on very discounted P and someone like Martinez (who strictly as a SP) is a #4/5 type doesn't profile as a 3/30 type... Clevinger is > (more risky but also younger and a true # 2/3 type ) and likely signs around 3/36... i mean i love Martinez ..to me as a hibryd 5-10 starts SP..BP arm (backup Closer) type the rest of the way makes sense up to 3/24 or so... otherwise we can sign Zach Davies 3/12 (3/15) as a 5th SP > .. and use our BP depth to take Martinez spot... i think Profar opts in..Suarez opts in and Martinez opts in..dont see any of the 3 opt out at this moment in time